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The Scout: EPL Week 5 Preview

Posted on | Posted by The Scout

Saturday, September 16 10pm kick-off (WA time)

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace 

Crystal Palace go into this fixture on the back of a narrow victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers that has lifted them to seventh place. Despite having just over 40% of possession against Wolves, Palace created the most and best chances, which were finished by Odsonne Edouard, who scored twice, and the impressive Eberechi Eze, in a 3-2 win.

Victory for Palace is not unusual. Since Roy Hodgson marched back into Selhurst Park to take over towards the end of last season, Palace have lost just three of their 15 games, winning eight times. Roy might be getting on a bit – he’s 76 – but he continues to find a way to get results.

But before you leap to conclusions its worth considering this. The only teams to have finished in the top eight last season that Palace have played under the veteran manager during his latest stint have been Tottenham and Arsenal. Palace lost on both occasions.

While Hodgson has achieved consistent performances, Aston Villa have blown hot and cold. In their most recent outing, a 3-0 defeat to Liverpool, they looked a lot like they had when they conceded five goals in a loss to Newcastle United. An early injury to defender Diego Carlos didn’t help Villa’s cause against the Reds.

But sandwiched between those results were victories over Burnley (3-1) and Everton (4-0). Villa also made light work of Scottish Premier League side Hibernian with an 8-0 aggregate win in the Europa Conference League. Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey have been amongst the goals, and the industrious John McGinn also offers a creative threat.

If Villa are to push for a European place this season, they should expect no less than a home victory against Palace.

Suggested Bet: Villa to win + Under 2.5 goals (Same Game Multi) @ $4.40*

Saturday, September 16 10pm kick-off (WA time)

Manchester United v Brighton and Hove Albion 

If you are Erik ten Hag, you probably wouldn’t want this game right now. But for Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi, it can’t come quickly enough.

Manchester United are so far away from their glorious past it’s now just a hazy memory. Ten Hag knows it because he’s reminded of it every time his team loses. A 3-1 defeat to Arsenal and 2-0 loss to Spurs hurt. And victories over Nottingham Forest (3-2) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (1-0) were hardly convincing, although at least United have a 100% home record.

The problem this week is that they’re on the road again.

At least Bruno Fernandes will have a spring in his step after making the most of his time on international duty. United’s Portuguese midfielder inspired his national team to a 9-0 victory in European qualifiers, albeit against Luxembourg.

Brighton, who are sixth, three points ahead of 11th-placed United, have won two of their three home matches this season. In their most recent outing they beat Newcastle United 3-1. A home loss to West Ham is Albion’s only defeat in their four games this season.

Goals have been flying in, too, with 12 in their four games. Evan Ferguson scored a hat-trick against Newcastle but missed international duties with Ireland due to injury, so could miss out against United.

But even if they are without the teenage star, Brighton have attacking capabilities in Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma and Joao Pedro, who have also been among the goals.

Brighton have won three of the past four games against United, last season’s FA Cup penalty shoot-out defeat (the match finished goalless) their only recent blemish.

Suggested Bet: Both teams to score+ Brighton to win (Same Game Multi) @ $4.50*

Sunday, September 17 11.30pm kick-off (WA time)

Everton v Arsenal 

A team already staring at the threat of relegation versus one that considers itself a serious title threat. Can we expect an outcome other than a victory for Arsenal over Everton?

Even avid Toffees fans won’t fancy their chances in this one, with Arsenal unbeaten in their four matches this season. Some good news for Everton is that Arsenal were made to work hard for victories over Nottingham Forest (2-1) and Crystal Palace (1-0) before an unexpected draw against Fulham.

Then came a last gasp 3-1 win over Manchester United in which Declan Rice and Gabriel Jesus both scored in stoppage time for the Gunners.

But you don’t have to look too far in the past to find an Everton upset against Arsenal.

In the same fixture last season, the Toffees had slumped to 19th, Frank Lampard had been replaced by Sean Dyche as manager and James Tarkowski scored an unlikely winner.

Arsenal had been top of the table, unbeaten in their previous nine matches and had just scored a 3-2 win over Manchester United. Sound familiar?

The Dyche effect kept Everton in the Premier League but it has been tough going this season. Successive defeats to Fulham, Aston Villa and Wolves were followed by a first point of the season with a 2-2 draw away to Sheffield United.

Arnaut Danjuma and Abdoulaye Doucoure were on target in that game as Everton finally opened their Premier League goals account for the season. For their part, Arsenal have scored an average of two goals per game in their four matches. Bukayo Saka and Eddie Nketiah have been their chief contributors with two goals each. Jesus’ return to fitness is another good sign for Arsenal.

Suggested Bet: Arsenal to win+ Over 3.5 total goals (Same Game Multi) @ $3.30*

*Odds correct as at 9am, 14th September 2023.

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