Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

RUTHLESS TYCOON returns to the races after an emphatic debut win as a 2 year old at Ascot when absolutely demolishing rivals to score untouched by over 2.5L in slick time. Ran the 1200m 3L faster than 2 year old SWP average and did it effortlessly. Loved his recent trial where he cruised past them at Lark Hill and excited to see him back at the races. Whatever the opening quote is he’ll meet with immediate support. SPIN THE KNIFE sat in the box seat first-up, got round heels and held off the late challenge of subsequent winner Mystical View to score. Rises 4.5kg and might run into a special one. METALLON won well at Northam but this is a 10L better field. POLICIERE had excuses when taking on the older horses.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – RUTHLESS TYCOON WIN

RACE 2

LET’SDEAL showed huge promise in his 1000m trial at Belmont Park when looming large early in the home straight and looking to have raw ability. On debut filled punters pockets nationwide with a $7 into $1.80 plunge (no deductions) and was one of the easiest views of all time. Sat over the top of the speed, hit the front turning for home and romped to victory by almost 4L in second gear. Looks to have huge upside and while this is a quantum leap in class he gives the indication he’ll be winning nice races. RED FIFTY THREE has done nothing wrong and continues to rise to the task whenever he is asked for an effort. Can lead or box seat from the inside. SUCCESS PLAY resumed on a Heavy8 and looked to be spinning the wheels. Did a few things wrong second-up when attacking the line. Awkward part of the preparation 6 weeks between runs but is capable. PROBITY was a gritty win last weekend when holding out talented filly Buzzoom.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – LET’SDEAL WIN

RACE 3

GINGER FLYER has 59.5kg to carry and an outside gate, however, should have sufficient gate speed to get across the face of the field and find a forward position. Resumed at 1400m when run down late by Smashing and the had to fight hard to hold off Al Di La and Snippy Miss last time out. Those names certainly don’t jump off the page as brilliant form references but she did run them along throughout. Overall time 6.5L faster than Westspeed Average so she was entitled to paddle late. If she can cross, she’s the one to beat again. JAGUAR GREY should lob in an identical position to where she won from last start. Difference here being there’s no cutaway run for her. PEPPER ASSAULT suffered her first defeat in her career last time out. Was 7 weeks between runs and may have needed the outing. BEDOUIN BELLE maps to get a lovely run and finally broke a long run of outs at Northam.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – GINGER FLYER WIN

RACE 4

GIANT LEAP was a victim of track conditions last time out. He got back on a day where it was near impossible to make ground down the outside. Was a day where 71% of place getters (excluding staying race) settled on the fence and he was one of the very few to make noticeable ground down the centre. Ran the fastest last 1200, 1000, 800, 600 & 400m of the race before fading in the concluding stages. Stays in 60+ Graduation company, draws better to sit a pair closer and strikes an arguably weaker field. We go again. GLAMOUR PACKED enjoyed a far better run than him in transit last start and only just held him out late. Get another gun run and is knocking on the door. TEMPTACION should be ready to fire now. 61.5kg is a leveller but she’s building. CALL AGAIN has hit a purple patch of form.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – GIANT LEAP WIN

RACE 5

KISSONALLFORCHEEKS returns to the races as she starts to warm up for a Summer Carnival tilt at Ascot. Winner of 6 from 11 including the Listed Sir Ernst Lee Steere and Listed Breeders Classic. The Lee Steere was a sensational winner producing form reference with 70 starts notching 17 wins and 13 minors by horses including Solaia, Western Empire, Chantorque, Mystical View, Snickerdoodledandy and All Day Session. Was a barnstorming winner at Ascot first-up, no trial off 154 days over 1200m and follows a similar path here. CRYSTAL SPIRIT was the target of mountains of money last Saturday in the Nicopolis Stakes when narrowly missing behind in form and progressive sprinter Iseered Iseered. He is back to his best and his best is very good. PULI looks like crossing comfortably here. Drops 3kg and finds the fence. Hard horse to run down on his day. ALL DAY SESSION won with arrogance last week. Previous 7 day winner and racing in great form.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – KISSONALLFORCHEEKS WIN

RACE 6

COCKYJOY gets her best chance of the preparation after being placed back into her correct grade. First-up no trial she really caught the eye with a big finish to get within 2.5L of Iseered Iseered (now 2x 78+ winner) and All Day Session (subsequent 66+ winner) when running the fastest closing splits. Since then has carried 57kg at Weight For Age in an Idyllic Prince only beaten 4L by Too Close The Sun and Tellem We’re Comin and 55kg in a Nicopolis when racing 9 points outside the handicap. Maps perfectly and is a 66+ winner and 72+ placed. Nice eachway bet. BRAGWELL has strong 3 year old form lines and trialled well for his return to racing. Shaun McGruddy striking at 24% with an unbelievable 80% POT last 90 days. COME MAGIC rolls to the top and controls the race. Was never getting beaten last start when the track pattern was in her favour. Steps to 1200m and rises in weight. SMASHING should get a nice tow ball run behind the leaders and is in form.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 10

Suggested Bet – COCKYJOY EACHWAY

RACE 7

LAVERROD and William Pike are 2 from 2 undefeated having saluted in the Listed Hareeba Stakes at Mornington and the Vobis Gold Sprint at Caulfield. Given 3 trials to warm up for this first-up assignment and in a race where 8 of the 9 runners are resuming he looks to have found a very suitable race to resume his Western Australian career. Likely to land in a wonderful position within striking distance and has never missed the money at 1200m. MASSIMO brings intrigue as he steps out for the first time in the Gangemi colours. Trialled like a bomb and looks the big danger. VITAL SILVER didn’t come up last preparation but at Set Weights and Penalties is thrown in with only 55kg. VALOUR ROAD is drawn awkwardly and likely to settle rearward and work to the line.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – LAVERROD WIN

RACE 8

SOWAR was given the run of the race by Shaun McGruddy last weekend and see no reason why he won’t enjoy an identical run in transit here. Deep into the campaign but holding form brilliantly and should settle one out, one back and be put into the race at the required time. Should nearly go round eachway and should go well again. BORN TO TRY has to carry a full 60kg but the engagement of Paul Harvey can’t be underestimated. Has a big turn of acceleration on her day and is proven in these 60+/66+ type staying races. If she wins this, they might toy with the ideal of tackling a Kalgoorlie Cup off 7 days. OUQBA TED has been building into the campaign through unsuitable distance races when finishing midfield in far stronger and deeper races than this. Going better than paper form suggests. VINTAGE STOCK is racing brilliantly. Trust being quickly restored.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet – SOWAR EACHWAY

RACE 9

KARIJINI AURORA took a long time to recapture her 3 year old form which saw her split Kay Cee and Laverrod and is now going through the grades nicely for Summer Dickson. Won a midweek C3 with 60kg three starts ago which was in her 8th run of the preparation and again last time out at her 10th outing. Showing no signs of training off, showing tactical speed to put herself into a position and thriving since the genuinely wet tracks disappeared. Looks hard to beat again from the draw. NO APOLOGY backs up, drops in grade and is a previous 7 day winner. Loves drawing barrier 1 and again maps to get a lovely run. REBEL KNIGHT ran into Kaptain Kaos last week and there’s no shame in having your colours lowered at his hands. EM TEE AYE was a brilliant return to racing. Likely to do it tough again from the barrier.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – KARIJINI AURORA WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,5,6,10
2,3
1,2,4,6,7,9,11
2,3,4,5,7,9

Market Market



Recent Articles