Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PADDY’S FLYIN’ had to pull out a L600 of 33.06 last Saturday to get over the top of Ruler Rocket with 59kg in a high rating sprint. 7 days later he drops 1.5kg, maps to settle 1×1 following Playthatfunkymusic and Mir and from there he looks like he’ll be hard to hold out. Winner of 4 from 7 and starting to build an imposing record. PACIFIC BOXER trialled nicely for his return and covered ground behind Ponyo. Gets a far better run here leader’s back. MIR trialled up nicely – just wary that those BM58 races that he’s won at Mornington and Stony Creek are effectively Narrogin/York class 46+ races. MADAM KISSES has her first start for Donna Riordan and is a real trier.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – PADDY’S FLYIN’ WIN

RACE 2

COLLECTIVE didn’t really look comfortable in and amongst horses last start when drawn barrier 1. She got clear air over the last 150m and savaged the line behind Costazita and subsequent winner Bread To Flirt. That’s the form race that the majority of them come through and drawn barrier 8 of 8 might just be a blessing in disguise for her. WAKAN TANKA can box seat on the back of Zac Luvs To Fly. He’s no world beater but he’ll enjoy a gun run and gives 100%. RULING DAME was scratched from a winnable race on Wednesday to save for this. Gets every chance from the barrier. FOREVER DREAMING ran well enough fresh but has a really sticky alley to contend with.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – COLLECTIVE WIN

RACE 3

CASH AWAY stepped out to a mile for the first time in his life last start and came through victorious. It was a bizarre race with a muddling speed and a pre-bend move from Mahaleo but once he saw daylight he really attacked the line. See no reason why he can’t go back to back. SISU WARRIOR was given a picnic in front last start and was basically handed the race from a sectionals perspective. First 800m was run 17L slower than average. When the leader skips home L600 in 33.73 they’re not getting beat. LET’S GALAHVANT is really well placed back into a 72+. Raced in higher grade his last 12 since winning a Hannans. MAHALEO trucked into it last start and only peaked late.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – CASH AWAY WIN

RACE 4

OSCAR’S FORTUNE was impressive on debut. On straightening it looked like Lord Shiva was about to go straight past him but as soon as Pike got busy and asked him for the effort he shook them off powerfully and was strong late and through the line. Comes up to a Saturday and drops 2kg in a race where it looks like he’ll cross and find the fence again. Takes beating. AUSPICIOUS was able to breeze and win in a fast run 1000 first-up and 3 weeks later she looks to get an identical set up. Looks a race likely to be dominated on speed. NEVER THE TWAIN drops 6kg after the Madi Derrick claim and gets a soft run. GOLD CITATION if flying – just the draw that hurts.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet – OSCAR’S FORTUNE WIN

RACE 5

VALENCY ran really well fresh over 1000m and then arguably should have won last start when held up and pocketed at a crucial stage on straightening. The way she’s racing the extra 200m is perfect and with a split in the home straight she’ll be very hard to hold out late. Looks a nice race for an in form mare. FAMOUS JURNEY split Costazita and Bread To Flirt last start. This is his grade and after the claim he’s again at a winnable weight. He’ll give a sight out in front. DESERT NYMPH flashed home behind Ponyo and just missed last start. She’s the third winning chance. THE REPUBLICAN has a tricky draw but really caught the eye at Pinjarra.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – VALENCY WIN

RACE 6

CHANGING GUARD looks like he’ll enjoy a lovely run in transit behind a decent tempo. Lord Randolph likes to roll in his races and if Romancing The Rock pulls William Pike out of the saddle again mid-race they could turn the speed on. He should be tracking up in behind and goes around an eachway price. Hard to fault his preparation. CALIFORNICATION is the real X-Factor runner. Finished 1.5L off Planet Cash and Sunny Honey in a 3 year old 52+ behind toying with country rivals at Kalgoorlie off a 64 day freshen. Raw talent. LORD RANDOLPH was huge at his return to racing and drops 5kg second-up. STYLAX gets a similar run to last start when winning impressively.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – CHANGING GUARD EACHWAY

RACE 7

GINGER BAKER has his first crack at a Listed race but the way he’s going he’ll measure up. Won an 84+ feature last start beating a Melbourne bound Alaskan God by almost 2L on the line. He’s drawn underneath of Searchin’ Roc’s, Comes A Time, Excellent Dream and Ginger Flyer which should ensure that he slides forward and gains cover close handy. From there with only 54.5kg on his back he looks a live eachway chance. Remarkable preparation. SEARCHIN’ ROC’S is a winner and she’s been tuned up with two very soft yet impressive trials. She’s quality and with even luck she’ll be right there in the finish. NERODIO might find 1400m on his limit and with 60.5kg he’ll need everything to go his way. WESTERN TEMPLE an improver back in a handicap.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 1 – 13

Suggested Bet – GINGER BAKER EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Ginger Baker (Top 4) + Searchin’ Roc’s (Top 4)

Ginger Baker has had an outstanding preparation winning four of his last six. Maps well, drops in weight and should enjoy a nice midfield run with cover – hard to fault anything he’s done in the last few months. Searchin’ Roc’s has finished second in both of her barrier trials and looks to have come back in excellent order. Just needs to overcome a slightly awkward draw.

RACE 8

COSTAZITA is an exciting prospect that looks like he’ll march his way right through the grades. Was $5 into $2.05 at his return to racing and never looked like getting beat in the run. He’ll only improve for the outing and Trevor Andrews takes him straight into a 66+ to keep him on the minimum. Highly progressive and looks like he’s still learning on the job. HINT OF MINT gets 2kg on Red Fifty Three from last start and is drawn barrier 1 to get a far softer run. She’s in career best form and is a proven weight carrier. FEATHERWEIGHT has had a freshen and is dangerous from three back the fence. RED FIFTY THREE likely has to go back and concede Costazita 5kg and a head start.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – COSTAZITA WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,5

2,3,4,5,6,7,9,11

1,4,5

1,10

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