Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

HOBA WEST has really hit a purple patch of form and while beaten his last start effort in defeat behind Forever Boy (since second in a Towton Cup) was career best. He is a proven weight carrier, he’s now proven at 1800m and should have no troubles holding the top and controlling. FREEDOM ESCAPE really caught the eye on debut and then was winning from the 1200 at his second start in WA. This is a massive step up but he’s been impressive. MISSISSIPPI DAWN has been a bit hot and cold this prep but her best is good enough. STARWALKER has been building.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – HOBA WEST WIN

Race 2

NINTYMILESTRAIGHT stepped from 1000 to 1300 when marching away from maiden opposition after being posted three deep the trip, and the form out of that race has been outstanding. She then took another huge step up by running second to undefeated filly Hot and High at Stakes level in the Lee Steere Classic. Back to a 3 year old SWP and gets in on the 54kg minimum. Looks very hard to beat. LANFRANCO was in the same race and held his own into fourth. He’ll continue to improve with racing. ARTISTRY IN MOTION can roll forward and put himself right over the speed. HARD SOLO should have finished much closer last week.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – NINTYMILESTRAIGHT WIN

Race 3

HAIDA GWAII is a jump and run 1000m mare who will win plenty more races across her career. Will be interesting to see whether Pin Deep is ridden for speed first start for the new stable or whether Haida Gwaii has the early toe to cross him. Could be a telling factor in her winning chances. WANT A WINNER is 4 from 6 overall and more importantly 3 from 3 first-up. He’s got a big motor, he’s got tactical versatility and while he may be better suited over 1200m he’s trialled up well and Team Casey are flying. PIN DEEP should be a handy horse for the new stable. VALSASSINA hugs the fence and takes the short cuts.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – HAIDA GWAII WIN

Race 4

SOLDANELLE is nearly impossible to catch but every time that Willie Pike has ridden her she has been outstanding. Three starts ago behind Angel Undercover (since second in a 78+) she was $6 into $3.90 in a spirited betting move was massive into fourth after missing away and being shuffled back into huge traffic. Feels illegal to have her on top but this is the weakest race she has seen in a while and Stef Vahala doesn’t muck around by booking Pike and carrying the full 60kg. ASTRO WORLD nearly held off Fast Harry two back and then was all the rage in the Grandstand Cup when drawn off the track. Going well. EXTREME LOVE has been huge in every run for Mitch Pateman. KELORA tries hard but is very much on his mark.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – SOLDANELLE WIN

Race 5 (Best Bet)

SMOOTH CHINO simply won’t get a better chance to win a Listed race than this extremely thin and lacklustre Black Heart Bart Stakes. He’s already a Restricted Listed winner of the 3 year old Magic Millions at Pinjarra and with all due respect, that was probably a deeper race than this is. He’s now 5 from 5 and expect he’ll emerge 6 from 6. CESSATION leads on her ear and on the 53kg minimum should be in front for a very long way. REPOSSESSION has back to back minors behind Jokers Grin and Oscars Fortune to his name and drops out of a Winterbottom Stakes. ICE PICK NICK showed last prep he was on the edge of Listed company and this is more like a glorified 78+.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – SMOOTH CHINO WIN

Same Race Multi: Smooth Chino (Top 2) + Cessation (Top 2)

Going to make the aggressive move and lock in the top two in betting (and the map) as the fixed odds quinella using the Same Race Multi. Cessation leads with only 53kg and Smooth Chino likely sits second and stalks.

Race 6

DUG ANOTHER HOLE has been able to raise the bar continually across the last 6 – 12 months. Last preparation he emerged from maiden to C1 to C5 to 0MWLY to a 66+ placing. First-up this campaign he finished a solid third behind Speed Dream and Awesome Boy and second-up he should only be fitter and finds a race he can control the speed in. Underrated type. MAGNA’S CHOICE comes back for. 1800m, has blinkers added first time, gets weight relief and gets Pike. Profiles like the best supported runner. EARTHSTORM has been sectionally excellent in the Mares Series and this is a clear drop in grade. PLANET CASH was a nice return.

Numbers: 5 – 11 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – DUG ANOTHER HOLE EACHWAY

Race 7

TIMELESS GEM resumed last week over what looked an unsuitable 1000m and ran quite well into fourth. SJ Miller backs him up on 7 days and he should be able to bounce out into a prominent spot and then hand up to the stack of speed drawn to his outside. Looks winnable for him. WUBIN GOLD is looking to keep her undefeated second-up record in tact. She wasn’t at her brilliant best fresh but she also wasn’t too bad. Back in grade and a gear change. SUPERSESSION likely ends up three back the fence and as a horse with a sharp turn of speed that’s a nice map for him, and Pike a bonus. THERMOSPHERE LAD is his own worst enemy but he’s seriously talented.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – TIMELESS GEM WIN

Race 8

MACHINE GUN GRACIE went on a winning spree as a filly, taking out the Natasha, WA Oaks and WATC Derby. She was being (naturally) touted as a Railway/Northerly Stakes runner before she had a frustrating set back and missed the Pinnacles. First-up, 1600m, 60kg is a serious ask but she’s a serious horse. STORYVILLE won the RJ Peters beating Cosmic Crusader in the process before heading to the Railway. Far better suited in Mares grade. LUVNWAR and NOTEWORTHY are both more than capable provided they can get half decent runs from their tough barriers.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – MACHINE GUN GRACIE WIN

Race 9

ROPE THEM IN resumed with a sharp 1200m win in the Crawford beating Super Smink, then split Railway Stakes winner Watch Me Rock and Northerly Stakes winner Cosmic Crusader under a whopping 61kg in the Asian Beau before he ran a brave fourth as the first WA horse past the post in the Winterbottom Stakes. The Winterbottom was a completely unsuitable speed profile for him and think that 1400m is his best trip. COSMIC CRUSADER is off 7 days from 1800 back to 1400 but the two times that Michael Grantham has backed him up he has won a TABtouch Stakes by 8L and a Carbine Club by an extending 2.5L. Proven WFA and a crazy talent. REY MAGNERIO is on trial at 1400m but has a big L200. OVERPASS hasn’t raced beyond 1200m for a few years but he’s rock hard fit, controls the speed and loves Ascot.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – ROPE THEM IN EACHWAY

Race 10

MAGNIQUE won well first-up under 60, ran second to emerging sprint star Smooth Chino in a 66+ 1200 second-up and then dropped back to 1000 in a messy race third-up when running fourth. Think the step back to 1200 is the right move and Tash Faithfull jumps off a last start winner to get back aboard. RETURN OF THE MACH made a mess of them first-up and deserves a crack at Saturday company off that. You’d think Lucy Fiore had the choice of both? HEY PINO trialled super and then won well at his return to racing. In for a good prep and with the booking of Pike is sure to attract plenty of market support. SANTANOVA grew wings in the last 100m to pick them up out of nowhere fresh.

Numbers: 3 – 10 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – MAGNIQUE EACHWAY

Quad (Race 7 – 10)

1,4,8

1,2,3,4,7

1,3,9,10,11

3,4,10

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