Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on April 20, 2023April 20, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

RUSTY DREAMS is looking to go four from four and remain undefeated. She worked hard early to find the breeze and then monstered subsequent winner Kelvinator on straightening and safely held off the chasing brigade at 1400m at her first attempt in Saturday grade. She now steps to 1600m, rises 2kg and draws barrier 1. She can lead or box seat and looks every chance of remaining unbeaten. LENIENCY gets 2kg on her and is drawn to settle a pair closer in the run. He’s a winner and he’ll be hard to hold out. CATCH THESE HANDS and MACK MACK are two quality additions to the race. They both get nearly identical runs to last start when they met in a 60+ Graduation.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – RUSTY DREAMS WIN

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RACE 2

NO DICE resumed off the back of a nice trial win in a Westspeed 1000 when looming large on straightening but was unable to reel in Parnham pair Leica Jaguar and subsequent winner Ultimate Command. Gets a soft run behind the speed and should only be improving into the campaign. PRAY AGAIN trialled incredibly well and has a huge amount of raw ability but he seems to find traffic if it’s there to be found and he doesn’t seem to take the Ascot corner at all well. I’ve banned him until we’re back at Belmont Park (**backs Pray Again**). DESERT VIXEN is dictated to by her racing pattern. She’ll sit back and come late. LUCKY LANDING has come back a better horse.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – NO DICE WIN

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RACE 3

BONDI PLUNGE looks another talented youngster from the winner producing yard of Danny Morton. In the last 750 days the stable has produced 39 first starters for 8 winners at a strike rate of 20.5% and a POT of 54%. Incredible numbers over a sustained period of time and Bondi Plunge looks another who could well add to that list. Has trialled well from off the speed and on top of the speed and from the gate Chris Parnham can ride her according to how she jumps and how much other speed there is. MORE SPECIAL looks to kick through and hold the top. Smart move bypassing the Karrakatta Plate with her. SNOW PRINCE had to absorb too much pressure last week. His run in the Perth Stakes was huge. SANCTIONS found under pressure late in her trial.

Numbers: 11 – 4 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet – BONDI PLUNGE WIN

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RACE 4

GUNMETAL GREY and ANGELIC MISS do battle again after finishing first and third respectively in the Marjorie Charleson Classic. There’s an extra 200m to cover and a 1.5kg weight swing in favour of ANGELIC MISS from that encounter and in the small field that might just be enough to turn the tables. Clearly not much between them and in the map it looks like Angelic Miss will have Gunmetal Grey’s back in running. GUNMETAL GREY may be forced to breeze outside of likely leader Jag The Joker and from there she’ll hit the front on straightening. VITALIZE and STELLAR VISTA are both thrown in the deep end and look to fight out the minor money for some Black Type.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – ANGELIC MISS WIN

Same Race Multi – Gunmetal Grey (Top 2) + Angelic Miss (Top 2)

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RACE 5

HARMIKA simply didn’t come up last preparation. If you’re forgiving and put a line through her preparation then you can go back and see she’s a winner in this grade with 59kg previously and she’s beaten highly talented (and forgotten) sprinter Otheroneson as a 3 year old. Her trials suggest she’s back to somewhere near her best and this race has a mountain of speed (Protected Action, Land of Valens, Mantelli, Bold Prophet). She can sit behind and pick her way through. SENORITA DOROTEA is versatile and can let the speed go and enjoy a similar run in transit to Harmika. Can go back to back now that she’s broken through. MANTELLI simply doesn’t win races, but he’s been ultra consistent since arriving in WA. SKY DUKE was a soft trial. Maps a treat but the bars going on is a red flag.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – HARMIKA WIN

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RACE 6

KAYMAY returned to the races when finishing third behind My Fury and subsequent winner Senorita Dorotea over 1200 (with Sesswa further back in the field). She then went to a 72+ 1400 when really attacking the line from a fair way off them. Out to a mile, drawn to get a lovely run behind Cheval De Vaga/True Attraction/No Change and only has 54.5kg on her back. Looks a nice set up for her. GINGER GREEN is likely to settle rearwards and if there’s a three deep line, he’s very dangerous late. Needs a top steer but has the right man aboard. EX SPORT MAN finally broke through last start. Amazing how many of those types go back to back. NO CHANGE has returned in great order.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – KAYMAY WIN

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RACE 7

GHOBELLA is a proven 7-day mare having won twice off the quick back-up previously. She’s untested at the staying trip but the way she’s been hitting the line over 1800m so far this campaign suggests she’ll have no trouble seeing out the distance. Luke Campbell’s 3kg claim heartbreakingly disappears after this meeting because it’s been a punting luxury for months. She has a fair bit more zip than most of these. DJANGO DREAM is a one paced stayer. Thought he did a good job last start considering he got shuffled back in running. DUCHEES DEMERIT is an emerging staying type who measures up. CRUISEY ROY battled on OK after making a mid-race move.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – GHOBELLA WIN

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RACE 8

KING’S SICARIO comes through the Rusty Dreams/Leniency race which is expected to hold up as a 3 year old form reference, let alone at 60+ level. Draws a gate but doesn’t seem to possess that much tactical speed. Hopefully he can hold a position midfield and from there he can wind up into the race and stamp his authority late. Looks to have some upside. Great decision to avoid the 3 years and take on the older horses. MY FURY seemed to hit a flat spot last start. Potentially doesn’t take the Ascot corner? Mile suits, Luke Campbells claim gold and looks winnable for her. Danger. TENACIOUS REWARD is flying and gets a soft run leader’s back. BOMBAY STYLE deserves another crack in town.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – KING’S SICARIO WIN

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RACE 9 

FEATHERWEIGHT is the last ride for Luke Campbell with 3kg and think he’ll go out with a bang. First-up last preparation in a 72+ 1200 Featherweight burst through to zap Above The Peg and now meets him 3.5kg better at the weights. Loved his trial behind Pray Again, love the placement into a 66+ first-up and with Double Spice likely to roll along they should get their chance to park midfield and get into the race from off-speed. ABOVE THE PEG is another 72+ winner in a 66+ first-up. Didn’t wear blinkers in his trial. BORN TO TALK gets weight relief and a gun map. DOUBLE SPICE gives cheek in front.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – FEATHERWEIGHT WIN

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,4,5,6,8

1,4,5,7,10,11

2,6,10

1,2

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