Races

Scott Embry’s Friday Esperance Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PUISSANCE PLAYBOY is knocking the door down and it should go close to opening here. There’s a stack of them on the 6 day back-up from last Saturdays postponed Boxing Day meet and he was the best of them after leading until behind run down late by what looks a handy horse for the region in Zadows Landing. Think he’s better off speed but as he showed last week he can lead if nobody else wants to be there. SHESATROOPER was holding her own behind Perfect Ruler two back and then was never in the race last start. MIDSUMMER ROMANCE was hammered in betting late last start but then was forced to sit deep throughout. REIGN IN THE CASH will win one eventually but he’s got some bad habits.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – PUISSANCE PLAYBOY WIN

RACE 2

GOLDEN OPERA has had two starts for new trainer Campbell McCallum and they’ve both been impressive minors to Dainty Rose and then to stablemate Harlequin Prancer. She’ll again get back and charge home late and hopefully this time around she can go one better and sprint over the top of them. I HAD A DREAM drew barrier 12 last weekend and somehow ended up three back the fence and ducking back towards the inside part of the track, which was been a no-go-zone for years. Hard to trust a 20 start maiden but he was super in defeat. TAPITLIKEITSSASSY would love to find a 1000m race. So being in Esperance 1100 is as good a chance as she’ll get. ONE GINGER FOX has shown glimpses here and there.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 9 – 10

Suggested Bet – GOLDEN OPERA WIN

RACE 3

SECRICITY was charging home last week over 1200m and now gets back out to a more suitable 1400. She’ll need to run the tables on key rival Midnight Rush who beat her home last week but thinking that with the extra 200m and a little half kilo weight swing that she can do exactly that. MIDNIGHT RUSH was no match for stablemate Dothraki last week but still comfortably held down second. David Page since arriving in Esperance: 19 runners for 7 winners at 36.8% strike rate and 74% Profit on Turnover. Huge. MOUNTAIN ASH is a real trier and it’s only a matter of time until he wins another. DANCING CHOOSE is hit and miss.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – SECRICITY WIN

RACE 4

ROYAL ACCOLADE is just going from strength to strength. He won a C2 by 3.1L, he then won a C5 by 1.75L and now he’s probably facing heist toughest test yet of the campaign with Holly Nottle not riding at Esperance on Friday and so Alex Hearn takes over riding duties and that means that he’ll have to carry the full 60.5kg. The way he’s going he can win again but wary that he’s riding 3kg run to run same track/grade/distance. THE LIONS GATE gets a full 3kg weight swing on hi for a 1.75L margin. Does had a set of Pads going on but continues to run big races deep into a campaign (raced first-up on 3rd of May). RUPERTS EMPIRE has found his mark, but Helen Harding sneaks him back into a C5. DIEGO DYNAMITE is suited back in trip.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – ROYAL ACCOLADE WIN

RACE 5

DAINTY ROSE, HARLEQUIN PRANCER and MISS WEENI are all last start Esperance maiden winners. Maiden winners into C1 races seem to struggle in the metro/provincial area but they often go back to back in the country, especially at Esperance, so then the question is whose maiden win was the best? Both to the eye and to the clock the answer seems to be DAINTY ROSE and now with a set of blinkers going on as well, hoping she can go back to back and make a promising start to her Esperance career with Freddo Brown. HARLEQUIN PRANCER landed massive bets first start for Campbell McCallum. No reason she can’t win again. MISS WEENI showed last weekend that the previous run at 50-1 was no fluke. FUZZYBOX comes out of a fast run race last week.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – DAINTY ROSE WIN

RACE 6

CRUNCHY NUT raced behind Hilton 7 weeks ago and has had a freshen in between. Was a really solid return and he’s an Esperance specialist. Happy to put him on top and trust that Helen Harding has him over whatever issue saw him requiring a small let up. DOTHRAKI has won two from four since arriving in Esperance and on both occasions he has been ridden by claiming apprentices and parked right up on top of a hot speed. Interesting to note that he has backed up twice in the last 12 months and flopped on both occasions. DADIRRA went around favourite last week but once crossed it got ugly. Forget she even went around. FALSE STATEMENT can be hard to catch but as we saw last start, on his day the 10 year old still has it.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – CRUNCHY NUT WIN

RACE 7 

TRUE CHANCE resumed in a 58+ 1400 without a barrier trial under 61.5kg, got a long way back and attacked the line hard behind Dadirra and Midnight Rush. He now steps out to 1600 – tick, comes up in grade to get the weight relief – tick and that form line is on show throughout the meeting and will hopefully hold up nicely. Like this race for him and always really liked the horse. DEBONNAIRE is definitely racing below his best but he’s on the 6 day spin, he’s out to a mile and he has Victoria Corver back aboard, who has ridden him to 5/6 wins. HEAVENBENT is trained by David Page – say no more. WEST COAST WARRIOR was scratched last week and finds this arguably better set up 6 days later.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet – TRUE CHANCE WIN

RACE 8

ZADOWS LANDING really burst through impressively late last week to break his maiden. He was 51 days between runs so should only come on fitness wise and he’s lightly raced and seemingly quite progressive for the region. Expect he’ll be hard to beat again stepping int o C2 company. Like the win. WIFE SAYS YES put the writing on the wall last start with a fast finishing second to Heavenbent who goes around in Race 7. If Heavenbent wins the 64+ then you’d be all over WIFE SAYS YES in a C2. PERFECT RULER was able to find the top and never looked like losing last start. Ran the first 1000m 10L faster than average – so he just gassed his opponents. That’s the way to ride him, clearly. METALIC MARLIN has improved sharply at his last two.

Numbers: 2 – 10 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – ZADOWS LANDING WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

3,4,5,10

2,3,5,7

2,4,9

2,10

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