Races

Runner by Runner: Perth Cup

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

1. Casino Seventeen (58kg)

Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Billy Egan
Barrier: 2

Reigning winner of the Perth Cup who while top weight is probably sneaking under the radar a bit. In 2023 he ran third behind Numerian and Marocchino beaten 3L before coming out and winning the Perth Cup and 12 months later he finished fourth in the Van Heemst only 2L adrift of In Good Order and Let’s Galahvant. The biggest difference between 2023 and 2024 is the weight – he got in perfectly on the 53kg minimum in 2023 and this time around he’s 58kg top weight and meeting those key rivals worse at the weights for being beaten home in the Van Heemst. Billy Egan returns to WA after combining with Team Williams to win the Gold Rush with Western Empire and he’s got a barrier to smother him away for the first 1600m.

2. Young Werther (57kg)

Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damian Lane
Barrier: 6

One of the two interstate invaders who arrived safely in Western Australia on the charter flight on Christmas Eve and brings excellent East Coast feature staying form and a real sense of class to the race. We’re talking about a horse who is five times Group One Placed, in the 2020 Victoria Derby  (2500m), 2021 ATC Derby (2400m), 2021 Turnbull Stakes (2000), 2022 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and 2023 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). He won a Quality Handicap with 61kg over 2000m at Caulfield in August and looks very well placed, very well mapped, will undoubtedly be very well ridden by one of the world’s best in Damian Lane and given that he’s avoided top weight he looks very well in. Lots of positives.

3. Let’s Galahvant (56.5kg)

Trainer: Daniel & Ben Pearce
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 5

Is still getting better? Seriously? Every time you think this horse has reached his ceiling, he pulls out something even better. A WFA Group Three win over 2000m in the Strickland Stakes at Belmont in June when beating Western Empire was surely going to be a career PB but then 6 months later he’s run the fastest L200 in a Group One Railway Stakes and then was a moral beat in the Van Heemst last start when held up at crucial stages and looked to be bolting. Going into the Cup he does meet In Good Order 2.5kg worse for being beaten, but watching the replay it’s easy to sell yourself on the fact that with even luck he would of run straight past him. 2400m? Big unknown, but he’s just a ripper who can’t be discounted.

4. Socks Nation (56.5kg)

Trainer: Ciaron Maher
Jockey: Ethan Brown
Barrier: 13

Caused a boilover in the 2024 Group One Queensland Oaks (2200) at Eagle Farm back in June and then as a returning 4 year old mare has recorded two individual Group One Placings, behind Atishu and Amelia’s Jewel in the Empire Rose at Flemington (1600) and in the Northerly Stakes (1800) when flashing home into third behind Light Infantry Man and Admiration Express. That flashing light WFA performance saw her backed into All In Favourite for both the Van Heemst and the Perth Cup and at that stage most probably saw her as the one to beat. Amazing what 14 days and one poor performance can do to the markets, and given the fact we were racing in 35+ Degree temperatures you could be forgiving of her run. However, look at the forecast for Cup Day. If she didn’t handle the heat on Van Heemst Day, how will she handle it on Cup Day?

5. Serpentine (56kg)

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Barrier: 14

Irish Bred Stayer from the all conquering yard of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott who is an International Group One Winner (Epsom Derby in 2020 over 2420m) and a now 8 year old who has contested not one, but two Melbourne Cups (2022 & 2023). His best recent effort was at Group Two Level in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m when second to Okita Soushi (ran third in the Melbourne Cup) and when you go back through his form he seems to go very well on the fresh side. His runs off 28 days throughout his career have been some of his best and no doubt these race hardened Eastern States stayers will be looking to turn the Cup into a test of attrition rather than the typical WA sit and sprint style of race. Draw hurts but you know they’ll have a plan.

6. Diamond Scene (53.5kg)

Trainer: Michael Grantham
Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter
Barrier: 8

One of the best credentialled, younger, progressive locals who will fly the flag for Peters Investments in the Cup. Midnight Blue (2022), Mississippi Delta (2020), Star Exhibit (2019), Star Exhibit & Delicacy (2016), Real Love (2015) there’s 5 winners inside the last decade for Bob & Sandra Peters and Diamond Scene definitely fits the profile of a Cup Winner. He’s a lightly raced 5 year old, he’s by So You Think, he’s a last start ATA Stakes winner and they’ve timed their run nearly perfectly towards his Grand Final. Like Sentimental Hero he’s had a 28 day freshen mid-prep, bypassing the AJ Scahill Cup to go directly from the Luckygray into the Towton. Those little tactical moves made by Michael Grantham and Peter Fernie could prove telling and there has been very little between that pair the whole way through the staying series. Get the feeling they’re the two to beat.

7. Be Optimistic (53kg)

Trainer: Luke Fernie
Jockey: Shaun O’Donnell
Barrier: 9

Won the 2023 Kalgoorlie Cup and 2023 AJ Scahill Cup and then with another stride would have beaten Casino Seventeen in the 2024 Perth Cup. It will always remain the one that go away for Luke Fernie, Clint Johnston-Porter and connections and unfortunately over the following 12 months she’s simply raced 5 – 8L below her best throughout. She now hasn’t raced for nearly 6 weeks since finishing 9.5L off them in the Scahill Cup and LK Fernie would need to have more than just an ace up his sleeve to turn her form around on Cup Day. He’s called on the services of ‘Pick Up King’ Shaun O’Donnell who has a ridiculous knack of winning at his first ride aboard horses but I’m sorry to burst the bubble of the statisticians out there – Donga rode her on debut as a 2 year old! Flat.

8. Currimundi (53kg)

Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Shaun McGruddy
Barrier: 4

Actually ran really well at WFA in the Northerly Stakes at massive odds when beating half the field home and then was put into the race by Shaun McGruddy with a mid-race move down the backstraight after the leaders went steady in front. Ultimately the run was short lived and he faded back through the field and failed to beat a runner home, 7.5L behind In Good Order and Let’s Galahvant. He’s shown staying potential, winning the Albany Cup in 2024 by a space, but at the same time that’s a different level of opposition, he beat Duchees Demerit, Let’sdeal and Manavendra that day. As we saw in the Northam Cup there’s a good race in him one day, but highly doubt it’s going to be on the 1st of January 2025.

9. Demolish (53kg)

Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 1

Is $7250 away from being a half million dollar earner for trainer, breeder and owner Neville Parnham and wife Caroline and based off his much improved performances in the Towtown Cup and ATA Stakes he’s not that far away from running a cheeky race into the top 4 – 5. Last year as a lowly m79 rater he ran third in the Cup as a $26 chance and you’d have to say he’s going as well, if not better this time around. He’s a quirky horse who has to be saved up for one late run at them and from barrier 1 Steve Parnham will get that exact scenario. Must be ridden for luck and he either gets a run from three back the fence and can burst through late, or he gets held up. Wouldn’t surprise one bit to see him meet with some support. One of the better roughies.

10. Flower In The Wind (53kg)

Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Laqdar Ramoly
Barrier: 15

Is not at the level. She’s a daughter of Sebring, she’s rapidly closing in on the natural transition to broodmare and owner Santo Guagliardo is no doubt desperately hoping and praying that she can pinch a bit more Black Type to add to her runner-up performance in the Belmont Classic as a 3 year old filly, but she’s simply not racing well enough. She’s the lowest rated horse in the field and she’s likely to jump the roughest of them all.

11. Hemlock Stone (53kg)

Trainer: Grant & Alana Williams
Jockey: Patrick Carbery
Barrier: 3

Has been up for a long time. His first-up run was in a 60+ Graduation at Belmont Park over 1300m in July and since that point he has had 11 starts with a little month’s freshen in the middle. He’s worked his way through the lower grades progressing from a m65 to a m81 rater and has won three races along the way (0MWLY 1600, 60+ 2200 & 66+ 2200) but as we saw in the ATA Stakes when beaten just over 6L it might just be a stretch too far for him at this stage of his career and this stage of his preparation. He’s only a 5 year old, so he can still aim up at a lot of Country Cups and even the 2026 Perth Cup, so there’s a lot of fun to be had with him still, but this is coming at him too soon.

12. In Good Order (53kg)

Trainer: Daniel Morton
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Barrier: 7

Has had some sort of campaign. After finishing third in the Melvista (2200) and fourth in the WATC Derby (2400) you knew that a program like this would be on the cards for him, but to burst through the grades and elevate from a m68 to a m105 in the space of 9 outings is quite remarkable. He’s arguably the most intriguing galloper in the field to assess, because given that the Van Heemst is now a ‘penalty free’ race, he’s a last start WFA winner who drops 5kg down to the 53kg minimum. He seems to be peaking at the perfect time, he looks to be drawn in the perfect barrier and he’s always looked like 2400m wouldn’t worry him in the slightest. The timing certainly looks right and he’s now finally won a race at Ascot to put to bed the theory that he was potentially a better Belmont Park horse. Big player.

13. Iowa (53kg)

Trainer: Simon Miller
Jockey: Holly Watson
Barrier: 12

Has proven a very astute transfer by Darby Racing as he made his way from Annabel Neasham in NSW to Simon Miller in WA in July 2024. He has only had 6 runs in the State and he’s won a 66+, a 72+ and finished runner up in both the Boulder and Kalgoorlie Cups. In the Boulder Cup Admiration Express ran third and so she’s dragged them all forward by running second in the Northerly Stakes, but the winner of those two Goldfields Features in Starry Heights has left the form very questionable with below par performances since a freshen. Meets Diamond Scene and Sentimental Hero worse at the weights from the ATA and that makes things hard.

14. Playhouse Patron (53kg)

Trainer: Bob McPherson
Jockey: Joseph Azzopardi
Barrier: 11

Gave rider Joey Azzopardi and popular veteran horseman Bob McPherson a thrill when taking out the Towton Cup beating home subsequent ATA Stakes winner Diamond Scene and subsequent Van Heemst winner In Good Order. In review, it was a masterful tactical decision to send him forward in a race without any speed or pressure and he was able to dictate terms to them and then fight them off in the last 100m. Gritty win but in a ridiculously slowly run race and on Cup Day they’ll more than likely settle off-mid than forward. Tough ask.

15. Sentimental Hero (53kg)

Trainer: Peter Fernie
Jockey: Lucy Fiore
Barrier: 10

Yet another brilliant purchase by Peter Fernie and Andrew Inglis. The lightly raced 7 year old was sold by Peters Investments in July of this year and in the 7 runs since has finished second in a Hannans Handicap, fourth in a Northam Cup, second in a Luckygray Stakes, won an AJ Scahill Cup and finished a luckless second to Diamond Scene in the ATA Stakes. Amazing to think that before this campaign he had never raced beyond 1600m and now he is destined to jump favourite over 2400m in the Cup. Has put the writing on the wall at his last two, has the gate speed to come out positive early and roll forward into a position and has a turn of acceleration at the end of his races. Keen.

SELECTION: SENTIMETAL HERO

He was huge in the Luckygray, he was dominant in the AJ Scahill and then off a 25 day freshen he was luckless in the ATA. In form, versatile and ridden by a highly regarded staying rider who is at the peak of her powers and full of confidence at the minute. Very respectful of Young Werth and Serpentine but think that Sentimental Hero is the best of the locals and a bet in the Cup.

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