Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Roebourne Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

MAJOR LEAGUE is knocking on the door with placings at his last two starts, including a solid third after racing wide last time out. Was well commissioned in that event and the runner-up isn’t engaged here so this looks a winnable assignment. LET ME PASS ran the fastest last 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m splits when second at his Roebourne debut and the extra 100m suits. Earlier provincial and country form is good enough to be winning races here. MUMSTHEONE started favourite in that race and was disappointing but should be able to lead again. SNOW PRINCESS was average last start but her previous efforts were good enough to figure and she should appreciate the extra 100m.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – MAJOR LEAGUE WIN

RACE 2

BITOVEMU finished off strongly in a stronger race first-up at her dirt debut last start and rises only 0.5kg after the claim of new apprentice Rosie Mahony. She also beat Tumut River home at their two past race clashes and gets weight on him for doing so. LAMPLIGHT LILI won at this track/grade/distance last time out and rises only 0.5kg but is slow out of the gates more often than not which can bring her undone. Has a sharp turn-of-foot on her day but is always a risky betting proposition. TUMUT RIVER is rarely far away in this company and trainer Sean Rains is batting at a 23% strike rate this season. FEMME PUISSANTE is a 23-start Class One galloper but is ultra-consistent.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 2 – 6  

Suggested Bet – BITOVEMU WIN

RACE 3

RIVAROLA was no match for Weld last start but gets 2kg on him from that encounter and the drop back to 1400m probably suits him better. He’s capable of turning the tables. WELD was dominant last time out and has run the fastest closing splits at his last four starts. It’d be no surprise to see him go back-to-back. MAKFI AMOUR was an alarming drifter at Port Hedland last start and performed accordingly but his grass form is good enough to measure up. MYBAK ran the fastest last 400m when third at this track/distance last start and drops from a 68+ to a 56+.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5    

Suggested Bet – MAGIC WILL REIGN EACH-WAY

RACE 4

URBAN GIRL is building up a nice record (7: 3-0-2) and clearly loves the dirt. Looks capable of settling on-speed again and can progress through the grades. DEMERITISE was a nice winner first-up at this track/grade/distance and has always shown glimpses throughout her lightly-raced career. CHENGDU might get stuck back in traffic from the draw considering his racing pattern but ran all the fastest closing sectionals when runner-up to Demeritise. VIOTTI also comes from that race when leading them up and fading but meets Demeritise 2kg better and her previous form is strong enough to bounce back.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 2 – 7    

Suggested Bet – URBAN GIRL WIN

RACE 5

WAR KSAR was once a metro-75 rater and bled about 15 rating points before making his dirt debut and won nicely over a seemingly-unsuitable 1400m. He should only get better as the distances increase so the rise to a mile is ideal and he has the scope to continue his winning ways.
WAR KSAR. Rising 11YO ANVIL GREEN hit the line strongly when runner-up to War Ksar and is a winner at his only other start at Roebourne previously. Hasn’t won a race for 22 months but there might be another one left in the old boy. MONTAGNA will be suited by the step up in distance but has been soundly beaten at his past few starts across two preparations. More than capable when he’s right. PLEAD THE FIFTH meets War Ksar 1.5kg better and reunites with Tash Faithfull who has won two from two on her.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2  

Suggested Bet – WAR KSAR WIN

RACE 6

I HOPE YOU DANCE drops from a 56+ to a 48+, rises only 0.5kg after the claim and has placed at 5 of 10 at this distance. ARTICULATOR was beaten as an odds-on favourite last start but ran the fastest closing sectionals in doing so. Might be in need of a touch further but will be doing his best work late. MISS MANDY led and was beaten a nose in a Class Three last start and drops back to a Class One here but 1400m looks at her limit. ICONIC SKILL has been a beaten favourite at his past three starts but probably has more upside than most of his rivals.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 7 – 3  

Suggested Bet – I HOPE YOU DANCE WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

1,2,3,5

4,5

1,2,3,4,5

2,4,7

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