Dogs

Harry Buchanan’s ‘The Phoenix’ Preview

Posted on | Posted by Harry Buchanan

Box 1 – She’s A Pearl

Comes up with the plum draw and off the back of a good trial here where she set a very fast early split. The look at the track and timing sets her up to get every conceivable chance here and will look the winner at some stage if she holds the arm. Expected to go in the vicinity of 29.6 according to connections and is capable of that as evidenced by her very fast WP wins.

Has something to prove here with the sometimes lack of respect for her when she ventures away from home and while few rush up the highway to take her on around WP, she has arrived out of her comfort zone here once again and won’t ever get a better chance to silence her army of doubters. Can afford no mistakes however against the quality she faces tonight. Must lead or it’s curtains for her. If she does, one of the last section weapons will need to be right on her tail. Bottom line…….she can win.

Box 2 – Paddy Wants Pats

Ultra-consistent campaigner and while he is one of the better FFA dogs in Victoria, he just doesn’t seem to have that length or two required in these big group 1s to get over the line. Nevertheless, his box speed allows him to be competitive and he does have a 4.99 first split here.

Needs everything to go his way to win this and that means a clean lead, some action behind him and the ability to get away with a 29.9 on the arm as that’s about his top these days. Another dog where the start and first turn will determine his chances and should be double figures for mine and therefore not a bet this year.

Box 3 – El Dorado

A very similar scenario for this bloke as it is for the 2. The difference being that this bloke can come from behind when chasing the right dogs. Just not sure those dogs are in this and his early split of 5.10 will make things extremely hard for this bloke to find the arm by the first turn.

Has a 29.73 win here and he would need every bit of that with some improvement as well to win this. He is not entirely out of it however as he chases hard and there are times he can bullet out of the boxes and from there he competes until that lure stops. Will start a price and a speculation play only against this field. One for exotics.

Box 4 – Amron Boy

If ever a dog has decided to find his absolute top at the right time, it’s this bloke. Blessed with excessive talent and a will to win, he looks set to give this one almighty shake to the ground here. His 5.05 isn’t a weekly occurrence but what does arrive on a regular basis is his devastating middle section and run home.

Surprised the 4 box was chosen at the time considering the 5 wasn’t scratched at that stage but it’s now proved a lucky stroke with that dog coming out. While he is fast, he does have faults in his armour which usually are the cause for his defeats. These faults have not been some for some time though and he is the one to beat. He’s a bet at the current $3.20 on offer. On top selection.

Box 5 – Zippy Tesla

Comes into this after Plaintiff was scratched. What many feel was disappointing is actually a stroke of luck and the slot holders should be very happy now as this bloke is a much better chance than what Plaintiff had off this draw in my opinion. The major difference of course being Zippy just keeps on coming no matter what. While he will most likely be closer to last at the first turn, he has the talent to sit and wait for the first turn scrimmage to take place where he then sails up the fence and into his striking role.

His last section clearly his strongest and while he may not be running the 29.6s a few other can, he will rocket home with any sort of clear run and there are only one or two he can’t run down if on their tail. The knockout hope at odds but will need first turn action to get into this. Can hit the podium without an ounce of surprise.

Box 6 – Wow She’s Fast

Yes, she is. However, she is also fragile in racing terms and cannot take the checks some of these can and recover. Very few dogs in the country can put what she does on the clock but let’s break it down, her last win in a full field was at Angle Park in a cup heat and was then beaten in a very weak final edition by a dog who is literally the length of the straight slower than her one out. Her two victories since have been under controlled conditions of match racing with two and four dog fields where she obtained uninterrupted runs on both occasions.

Her box manners are lacking right now and she would need to turn several things around to win this. If any dog can however it’s her and if she nails the start and accelerates quickly out wide, she becomes a contender. Just not willing to bet that will happen here as full field of weapons won’t let her have any sort picnic. Can begin, can run sectionals, can run overall blistering time, but not doing all three at once at the moment. Prepared to risk.

Box 7 – Tyanna Belle

Tremendous little campaigner from Queensland who won her way through to this. She beat a quality field in QLDs run off showing superb early toe and a good middle section to hold off some local guns who can run home hard and run time.

This is a monumental step up for her however and she would need some serious trouble and a lucky break up the back to hold on. The outsider who will try her heart out but doesn’t have the weapons these others have to take the Phoenix out. She will do her state and slot holder proud nonetheless.

Box 8 – Mcinerney

The Million Dollar Chase champion who comes into this with fair form but probably not the form you want to win a race of this quality. Handles wide draws perfectly and competes the whole trip but his 5.10 early sees him posted here at best and his job will then quickly become that much harder.

Like one or two others, he would need the “the fly” at the first turn and then a break up the back to win. He’s been an elite dog for connections and deserves his spot but lacks that necessary knockout blow to win from out there although he could hit a placing with some luck. Prepared to leave.

RESERVES

No. 1 – Amron Dan

Would need a big scrimmage at the first turn to be threat if he gained a start and while he can run some time, would be better suited in something much easier.

No. 2 – He’s No Slouch

I have a lot of time for this dog, but not in this grade of race and he would struggle to beat many home if he fluked a start. Has not yet broken 30.1. That means he is a long way off these.

SUMMARY

What a race!! Clearly the strongest edition of this event since its inception and worthy of a Group 1 final even though it’s not.

No. 4 Amron Boy has a sense of timing about him (who doesn’t enjoy a sense of timing). He will come into this weapons hot and is now mapped to get a better run than he was getting a few days ago. Capable of being the first run home sectional gun on the scene up the back, it will come down to two things, who he is chasing and how far off that dog he is. Those variables are up for discussion of course but he’s shown he is capable of hammering down most dogs as he did when nailing Shipwreck a few starts back, a dog who does not get run down as a rule. He’s stepping better, he’s getting there earlier and he’s running time. He’s the one to beat.

No. 1 She’s A Pearl will get her chance here and its almost destiny that she takes this out. Money and prestige aside, she will surely get her chance to silence those who refuse to acknowledge what a champion she truly is. If she leads and her best isn’t good enough, then it will take a Herculean performance for whoever has to run her down. She’s ready!!

No. 5 Zippy Tesla...why?? Because he will keep coming when the others are put out of their comfort zone and struggling. Late in the race is where he can sneak into the placings and any first turn luck will see him start a sustained run home that will give his followers a huge sight.

No. 3 El Dorado rounds out the top four by default really. He is the only other dog capable of still competing from off the arm. He has some versatility about him that will be critical in a race like this and he won’t stop trying. At the odds, the 2,6 and 8 need too much to go right for them and while they can win, they don’t stand out on their current quotes. The 7 will sadly be outclassed but trying nonetheless.

Can’t wait for this one and good luck with your plays in the 2022 Phoenix.

Selections: 4-1-5-3

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