Sports

Digby’s AFL Round 16 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Thursday, Adelaide Oval 5.50pm

If there were any doubts Hawthorn intended to narrow their focus in the final two months of the home-and-away season, Alastair Clarkson put them to bed on Wednesday when he spoke about the Hawks’ physical capabilities. It was Clarkson putting his players on notice, well aware that the Power beat them twice last season. Hawthorn were able to overcome those twin defeats and still finish top four. They might not have the same luxury with a loss in this match.

Clarkson’s fighting words ensures his midfield will endeavour to set the tone from the outset. That means the likes of Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Liam Shiels and co. making a statement against the Power’s running division, which is capable when at its optimum. Port require skipper Travis Boak, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert and Robbie Gray to shoulder a significant load for them to prevail. The Power have troubled Hawthorn with their leg speed and dare in recent times, but given Clarkson’s comments it would be a shock if the visitors were caught unawares.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 19 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Gunston

Geelong v Sydney

Friday, Simonds Stadium 5.50pm

Sydney should have been preparing for this game from top spot. Thanks to a last-gasp loss to the Western Bulldogs at home, they are fourth and could slide to seventh if they succumb to Geelong as many suspect they will. But all the pressure isn’t just on the Swans. Stunned by St Kilda before their bye last weekend, the Cats could also tumble outside the top four with a second successive defeat. It’s fair to declare the stakes are high.

Geelong have taken down many good sides before their faithful and hit this game fresh, both physically and mentally, while Sydney venture to the daunting venue off a six-day break and still vulnerable in the ruck stocks due to Kurt Tippett’s injury-enforced absence. If Geelong’s Zac Smith is able to have his way against Callum Sinclair and Toby Nankervis, expect brilliant duo Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood to wreak havoc, even taking into account the quality of Sydney’s midfield division. Home-ground advantage has been imperative in recent meetings between these two sides and it should be telling yet again.

VERDICT: Geelong by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Tom Hawkins

GWS v Collingwood

Saturday, Spotless Stadium 11.40am

Heaven help Collingwood if Spotless Stadium isn’t affected by rain. The Magpies managed just eight goals in perfect conditions against Carlton last Saturday night, and in all due respect to the Blues, they don’t hold a candle to the Giants. And when you factor in GWS hit this match freshened up and sensing a top-two spot is within reach, Collingwood could be in for a torrid afternoon.

The Giants are yet to beat Collingwood in four attempts, but could not be in better shape to create a slice of history before their home fans, who have yet to witness a defeat in 2016. A forward line bursting with options, notably Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene, Steve Johnson and Rory Lobb, will stretch the capabilities of Collingwood’s defence. And then there is the slick GWS midfield which can expose its opponents at the clearances and in space, thanks in no small part to Shane Mumford.

VERDICT: GWS by 56 points.

1st goal scorer: Steve Johnson

Gold Coast v Brisbane

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 2.35pm

Justin Leppitsch has eight games to save his job. Yes, he is contracted to coach Brisbane until the end of 2017, but it is highly unlikely he will remain in the post if the Lions continue to dish up what they have for the majority of the season, chiefly what was produced on a regular basis in the lead-up to their bye. That there are question marks surrounding the Lions’ culture and fears some players are holding the club to ransom only adds to his woes.

That is before you factor in Gold Coast’s gradual improvement, vindicated by last weekend’s thumping of St Kilda. Gary Ablett is in good nick, as are experienced teammates Nick Malceski, Aaron Hall, Dion Prestia, Michael Rischitelli and Jarrod Harbrow. Brisbane need to find a way to break even in and around the contests because if they fail to do so, Tom Lynch and Peter Wright loom as massive problems for an undersized Lions defence. On their most recent outings, it is hard to see Brisbane winning their second match of the season.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 30 points.

1st goal scorer: Peter Wright

Western Bulldogs v Richmond

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

It is somehow convenient to overlook the Western Bulldogs as top-four contenders, despite the remarkable progress they have made under second-year coach Luke Beveridge. Certainly performances such as the one they produced to topple Sydney at the SCG last weekend will only enhance their claims for a crucial double chance at the end of the home-and-away campaign. Unlike Richmond, the Bulldogs are genuine and at their best in heavy traffic.

A midfield featuring Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Tom Liberatore, Mitch Wallis, Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniel and Liam Picken will be too much to handle for the Tigers, who rely heavily on Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Trent Cotchin to generate their midfield drive. Richmond’s second and third-tier players have again been exposed and with so much commentary on their plight, in particular where the future lies for certain players, the momentum appears to be all with the Bulldogs.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Riewoldt

Melbourne v Fremantle

Saturday, TIO Stadium 5.40pm

Fremantle were making good progress until they were flogged in no uncertain manner by Collingwood in round 14. Their inability to compete and the failure of the side’s leaders to show the youngsters the way was stark. With the benefit of a week’s bye, the Dockers should have no excuses here, even taking into account their injury list. In saying that, they will need to play perhaps their best football of the season to leave the Top End with the four points.

Melbourne might only have six wins to their name this season, but have extended the likes of North Melbourne, Hawthorn and, recently as last Sunday, Adelaide. Demons ruckman Max Gawn is under serious consideration to earn All-Australian honours and helps power a midfield that is ranked second in the competition in clearances. Given the Dockers have struggled in the absence of Aaron Sandilands and Nat Fyfe, Melbourne’s premier on-ballers Bernie Vince, Nathan Jones and Jack Viney could enable Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett and Dean Kent to impact the scoreboard.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 27 points.

1st goal scorer: Jeff Garlett

Carlton v Adelaide

Sunday, MCG, 11.10am

Slowly but surely, Adelaide have climbed the ladder. The worst part of their draw behind them, the Crows strengthened their top-four aspirations with an excellent win over Melbourne last weekend and should only enhance them further with another MCG victory against Carlton. The Blues’ past two losses to Greater Western Sydney and Collingwood haven’t been through a lack of effort, rather deficiencies through the midfield and an impotent forward line.

Neither accusation could be levelled at the Crows, who have a slick running division and a forward line that is the envy of just about every other side in the competition. Adelaide’s ability to turn a half-time deficit against the Demons on its head in the third term in a matter of minutes was breathtaking. Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts, Tom Lynch and Charlie Cameron will ask much of Carlton’s defence and it is highly doubtful it will hold up. The Crows are at another level to the Blues and that will be reflected on the scoreboard.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Taylor Walker

West Coast v North Melbourne

Sunday, Domain Stadium 1.20pm

Depending on which camp you occupy, it is easy to make a case for West Coast and, for that matter, North Melbourne. Only one game and one spot separates the two sides on the ladder and the desire for a top-eight scalp undeniable if either side has designs on storming up the ladder in the run to September and securing a top-four berth. The Kangaroos have been solid in recent weeks without winning, while everyone in the football world is waiting for the 2015 Eagles to turn up.

If Adam Simpson’s men are able to recapture their best, the Kangaroos could be in for a long afternoon. That said, the visitors won’t mind the forecast of inclement conditions and the prospect of a fresh Todd Goldstein leading his following division against a West Coast line-up missing Nic Naitanui. The Eagles had issues controlling Essendon around the clearances, but still prevailed. If Jack Ziebell, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow and Trent Dumont get a toe-hold at the coalface, North will be difficult to shake. However, logic says the Eagles rarely lose at home and their extended break leading into this match offsets the Kangaroos’ round-15 bye.

VERDICT: West Coast by 9 points.

1st goal scorer: Jamie Cripps

Essendon v St Kilda

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

St Kilda were required to do some soul-searching in the lead-up to their round-13 bye. A stirring win over Geelong a fortnight ago, followed by a shambolic display at Metricon Stadium against Gold Coast last Saturday, ensures they will have to carry out some more if their 2016 season is to be considered a success. Fortunately, an already depleted Essendon, hit hard this week by the suspensions of David Zaharakis and Mark Jamar, await them.

Though the Saints will be without Paddy McCartin (concussion), they still have sufficient firepower in Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey and Nick Riewoldt to trouble the Bombers, who find enough of the football, but struggle to translate the possession count into scoreboard pressure. If the Saints display anywhere near the level of intensity they produced against the Cats, particularly at their preferred venue, Essendon will remain anchored on the bottom of the table with one win and a sub-par percentage.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 48 points.

1st goal scorer: Tim Membrey

Bet Now



Recent Articles