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Digby’s AFL Round 11 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

North Melbourne v Richmond

Friday, Blundstone Arena 5.50pm

North Melbourne had their nine-game winning streak snapped by Sydney last Friday night and now must front up to Richmond, who they enjoy a good record against but are understandably wary of due to the Tigers’ recent form reversal. The Tigers are heavily reliant on their best players performing well and that was the case last weekend when Dustin Martin and his fellow midfielders led the way in the comfortable win over Essendon.

How Richmond back up that display here will be crucial to the final outcome. The Kangaroos’ running division was no match for the inside and outside work of Sydney’s on-ballers, the unavailability of tagger Ben Jacobs (foot) significant given how dominant Dan Hannebery was. In all likelihood, Jacobs would have gone to Trent Cotchin in this match. The Richmond captain has enjoyed a good few weeks and will be hoping his form continues. Cotchin, along with Martin and Brandon Ellis, will be desperate to perform strongly after the trio were roundly criticised for having quiet games in last year’s elimination final defeat to Brad Scott’s side. Clearly the midfield battle is key, with a big watch on whether Todd Goldstein overcomes his knee injury and plays.

Richmond have had a poor record against the Kangaroos in recent seasons and while this fixture is scheduled at North’s home away from home in Hobart, the Tigers did have a hit-out at the venue last season when they were solid enough, only to be blown away by a seven-goal third term from the Kangaroos. North need to rubber stamp their top-four credentials with a bounce-back win, but if they are to do that, then the likes of experienced campaigners Nick Dal Santo, Brent Harvey, Jarrad Waite and Drew Petrie must recapture some of their best form.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 17 points.

1st goal scorer: Ben Brown

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Saturday, MCG 11.45am

Just two positions separate these teams on the ladder, but there is no debating the gulf in ambition, accomplishments and talent between the seventh-placed Hawthorn and Melbourne (ninth) is vast. And while the Hawks have yet to resemble the feared outfit that has snared the past three premierships, they have still quietly moved to 7-3 and remain very much in the top-four mix. As for the Demons, they are mixing some exhilarating football with poor defensive displays and will need to be at their optimum to have any chance of springing an upset.

Hawthorn have monstered Melbourne in recent years and will believe they can do so again, especially with gun Demons midfielder Jack Viney missing through suspension, not to mention a broken knuckle that is likely to sideline him for a further fortnight. His absence in the centre square places greater onus on Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince, Christian Petracca and Dom Tyson to stand up against Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne and Isaac Smith.

Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson will be very comfortable with his side’s chances if his midfielders can win their share of the ball. Forward of centre, he has genuine weapons in Cyril Rioli, Jack Gunston, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo, while James Sicily continues to perform well as a key marking target. The Demons were burnt regularly against Port Adelaide last weekend by the ball getting out the back and that will surely be a focus of Paul Roos in this match. If the Hawks start the way they finished against Brisbane, they should grab control early and cruise to a comfortable victory.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Luke Breust

Carlton v Brisbane

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 12.10pm

Rarely do Carlton enter a match as favourites. Then again, it has been a long time since we have seen the Blues enjoy a run of form they are currently experiencing under first-year coach Brendon Bolton. Carlton have rebounded from losing their first four matches to win five of their past six, with their effort last Sunday against Geelong the best performance of the Bolton era. The game-ending ankle injuries to Marc Murphy and Liam Sumner before quarter time could have been the catalyst for an honourable defeat. Instead, it laid the platform for a gallant victory.

How Carlton recover from such a taxing effort on a six-day break will be interesting. Much was asked of the Blues, offensively and defensively, and they responded. Now they must dig into their reserves and produce an equally committed performance against Brisbane, who weren’t horrid against Hawthorn last Saturday and will be bolstered by the return of their captain Tom Rockliff from a hamstring injury. Rockliff has had a wretched run with injury in the past 18 months, but is a terrific accumulator of the football and provides leadership to a side in desperate need of on-field guidance.

Carlton have received plenty of that from Bryce Gibbs and Kade Simpson, the pair standing up admirably all season and again last weekend in the absence of Murphy. They will need to do so again as Murphy misses, although their cause will continue to be assisted by the presence of Matthew Kreuzer. The former No.1 draft pick returned against the Cats after one week on the sidelines following surgery to a torn meniscus and was outstanding. If he can back up and win the aerial battle opposed to Stefan Martin, Carlton should prevail.

VERDICT: Carlton by 23 points.

1st goal scorer: Levi Casboult

Geelong v GWS

Saturday, Simonds Stadium 2.35pm

If Geelong or Greater Western Sydney are to advance deep into September as many people predict, their respective midfields will need to be at their influential best. Laced with exceptional talent, they have the potential to power their teams to significant finals victories. First things first, however and that is the respective units redeeming themselves after having their colours lowered at the hands of Carlton and Adelaide last weekend.

Cats coach Chris Scott has been at pains to suggest Geelong are not a two-man side, more specifically not powered solely by Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. Others would argue given their quiet past fortnights have coincided with losses to Collingwood and the Blues. The Giants were unable to hold their ground through the midfield against the Crows, with Callan Ward having a quiet night. Josh Kelly and Dylan Shiel aside, GWS didn’t get the same drive as they had in previous weeks even though some of the numbers midfield were inflated.

An issue for Geelong in their defeats has been their defence. Reliable early in the season, it has been shaky and will need to recapture its best against Jeremy Cameron, Steve Johnson, Toby Greene and Rory Lobb. At the other end of the ground, the Cats must capitalise on periods of dominance by kicking goals. Their inaccuracy has allowed their opponents time to find their feet and confidence. Geelong have dropped three matches this year — one to GWS in round two — but are a perfect 3-0 at Simonds Stadium. The Giants are coming fast, but are still finding their feet outside Sydney and Canberra.

VERDICT: Geelong by 21 points.

1st goal scorer: Steve Johnson

Gold Coast v Sydney

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 5.25pm

Sydney enhanced their premiership claims last Friday night when they did what nine other sides couldn’t — beat North Melbourne. Though the margin was a tick over four goals, it felt more like a 40-point victory. Indeed, a performance anywhere near that will ensure this is a percentage-boosting result. Gold Coast are shot. There is no other way to describe it. They are simply unwilling or incapable of having a crack for more than a quarter. The only blessing for Gold Coast here is the forecast of horrible weather, which may keep the scores closer than they otherwise would be.

The Swans’ midfield is built for contested football, with Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Tom Mitchell and Kieren Jack beasts in tight and complemented by the outside polish of Hannebery, Gary Rohan, Jake Lloyd and Harry Cunningham. Then there is the small matter of Lance Franklin, the most dynamic player in the land, Isaac Heeney and Kurt Tippett, who is a factor in the ruck and also when he pushes forward.

Gold Coast received excellent service from captain Gary Ablett against West Coast, but the inclement conditions and the likelihood of plenty of contested football might make him and his dodgy shoulder a very enticing target for the Swans. It must be said that Sydney, for so long regarded as a grunt outfit, are better these days on top of the ground than in the wet but the disparity in class between the two sides is too great to forecast an upset.

VERDICT: Sydney by 49 points.

1st goal scorer: Ben McGlynn

Fremantle v Essendon

Saturday, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

It is hard to fathom how far — and quickly — Fremantle have fallen from relevance. So badly have they fared this season, the only conversations they are involved in are tanking and the first selection at this year’s national draft. Ross Lyon continues to talk a good game, but his side is yet to play one. Even taking into account their extensive injury list, the Dockers should have won a game by now. Failing that, at least a spike in their skill level which was horrible at the start of the season and has managed to deteriorate.

Essendon, with their top-up players and several fresh faces, boast four points. And unlike Fremantle, their supporters go to games believing something magical might happen, not dreading another dismal performance. Taking all of that into account however, this is a match Fremantle should be winning. They were installed as favourites earlier in the week and though they aren’t exactly Hawthorn in full flight at the offensive end, their goal-scoring capacity far outweighs that of the Bombers. The game presents an opportunity for Matthew Pavlich to respond and quieten those wondering whether retirement is the best option.

Amid the gloom for Fremantle, Lachie Neale continues to be a shining light, while there has been much to like about the way Connor Blakely has gone about his business through the midfield in the past fortnight. The Bombers have their own young stars in Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett, who have worked well alongside Brendon Goddard and David Zaharakis, but it gets skinny after that. There are games where sides have no excuse for not winning. Welcome to that world, Fremantle.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 30 points.

1st goal scorer: Matthew Pavlich.

Collingwood v Port Adelaide

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

Nathan Buckley has adopted a more rigid mindset in recent weeks with his Collingwood side and it has paid dividends. The Magpies were in the box seat to take down the Western Bulldogs last weekend, only to have their chances scuppered by the loss of Taylor Adams (hamstring), Alan Toovey (concussion), Darcy Moore (shoulder) and Alex Fasolo (shoulder). Reduced to 18 fit men, the Magpies didn’t surrender, rather they were overrun.

The challenge is to bring that mindset again against Port Adelaide, despite being without key personnel. The Power kept in touch with the top eight courtesy of their comfortable win over Melbourne at Alice Springs last Saturday and have every right to feel this game is within reach. Port were on their heels early against the Demons, but worked into the contest and could be very thankful for the contribution in attack of Charlie Dixon and Chad Wingard. Toovey has been named and if plays, could well be used to nullify Wingard, who has threatened to tear apart games this season without actually doing so. Likewise, no Adams in the midfield leaves Collingwood vulnerable against Travis Boak, Robbie Gray and Brad Ebert and co.

Great interest will centre on Travis Cloke, who returns for the first time since being dropped in the lead-up to Anzac Day. His replacement, Mason Cox, has been solid and how they work alongside each other will be interesting. The Magpies will be hoping Brodie Grundy can influence the centre bounces and clearances to give his midfielders first use, but even that might not be enough with question marks surrounding where Collingwood get their goals from.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 9 points.

1st goal scorer: Chad Wingard

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

For all their trials and tribulations away from WA this season, the equation is simple for West Coast. If they win this match, they will be perched inside the top four and potentially just one win away from top spot. Boasting a 7-3 record like the Eagles, the same applies to the Western Bulldogs, who deserve to be favourites given their record at Etihad Stadium. They will relish being back inside the Docklands venue after losing to Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium and battling to overcome Collingwood at the MCG last weekend.

West Coast coach Adam Simpson sung his side’s hard-nosed approach against Gold Coast and will demand more of the same here. Andrew Gaff returns from concussion and that is timely given his teammates Matt Priddis, Mark Hutchings, Luke Shuey, Liam Duggan and Lewis Jetta will have their work cut out nullifying the Bulldogs, who are well served by coach Luke Beveridge’s desire to have an extra around the contest. Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore, Mitch Wallis, Marcus Bontempelli, Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae and Caleb Daniel rarely lower their colours.

Both sides defend very well, with the Bulldogs’ ability to cover a raft of injuries not dissimilar to how the Eagles fared last year when reigning club champion Eric Mackenzie and Mitch Brown went down with season-ending knee injuries. Importantly, Mackenzie enjoyed his best game of the year against the Suns, and will take enormous confidence from that, potentially into a match-up with big Dog Jack Redpath. This is an assignment not beyond West Coast, especially given the issues Josh Kennedy has caused the Bulldogs. But  what we have witnessed from the hosts at Etihad makes them the safe pick.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 10 points.

1st goal scorer: Jake Stringer

Adelaide v St Kilda

Sunday, Adelaide Oval 2.40pm

The fluctuating fortunes of elite-level football were never more apparent than at Etihad Stadium last Saturday. At three-quarter time with their side trailing winless Fremantle by 13 points, St Kilda supporters would have been well within their rights to question whether the Saints’ rebuild was taking place at the right pace. Just over 30 minutes and eight goals to none later, all was right with the world as the Saints strolled to a 34-point win.

On a lesser scale, the same applies to Adelaide. Beaten at home by Geelong in round eight, the Crows have bounced back with wins over Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney, their effort last Saturday night against the Giants full of merit. Don Pyke’s midfield won its battle with the vaunted GWS running machine and captain Taylor Walker produced his second superb game in as many weeks, kicking five goals. Eddie Betts also chipped in with a bag of five and St Kilda coach Alan Richardson will need no prompting about the importance of stifling their supply. His charges are at their best when they are frenzied in their approach without possession, with David Armitage an undeniable barometer.

The Crows have had their way with the Saints in recent encounters. Scott Thompson was sublime in the corresponding fixture last season, a defeat for St Kilda which was compounded by Nick Riewoldt’s sickening head clash. St Kilda are tracking well, but the next step for young sides is winning consistently on the road. The Saints have had one crack at Adelaide Oval this season and come up short and it is likely they will be 0-2  for 2016 by the end of this match. The loss of Sam Fisher to a hamstring strain is a massive blow. St Kilda lost by 103 points to West Coast last month when he didn’t travel interstate.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 38 points.

1st goal scorer: Taylor Walker

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