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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 13

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Thursday, 15 June

West Coast v Geelong, Domain Stadium 6.10pm

The fortunes of these two sides couldn’t have been more stark heading into their mid-season byes. Geelong stormed to their week off with three successive wins against quality sides, albeit at home, while West Coast staggered to their break with losses to Essendon, Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast.

The contrasting plights has ensured the stakes are extremely high for the Eagles as they aim to regain some traction and force their way back inside the top eight. And they will have to do it without spearhead Josh Kennedy as he recovers from a calf strain. West Coast didn’t perform well in his absence against the Suns and will be well aware that they need to unearth a forward structure that delivers them goals opposed to the free-scoring Cats.

But Geelong will also be without their primary goal kicker in Tom Hawkins (suspended), leading to the recall of the talented, but enigmatic Rhys Stanley. However, this contest is likely to be decided inside the centre square where the visitors boast two of the most influential midfielders in the game — Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, who have been dynamite in the three-match winning streak. Importantly, they have been complemented by the return of Scott Selwood and the ongoing development of Mitch Duncan. Unless West Coast find a way to slow them down, their defence will be asked some serious questions.

VERDICT: Geelong by 17 points

Friday, 16 June

North Melbourne v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

St Kilda had the chance to enhance their finals credentials over the past month, but faltered. Badly. There is no other way to describe their losses to Sydney, the Western Bulldogs and last Friday night’s shellacking at the hands of Adelaide. They now have to face up to a North Melbourne side which will honour VFL-AFL games record holder Brent Harvey in an occasion that is certain to stir the Kangaroos faithful.

Further complicating the Saints’ plight is the fact they haven’t beaten the Kangaroos since late 2011. If they are to break that sequence, they must recapture their attacking mindset from earlier in the season. North have been solid for most of 2017, but haven’t been great defensively and if the Saints’ rebounding defenders, chiefly Dylan Roberton and Jimmy Webster, and midfielders are prepared to launch raids through the corridor, the Kangaroos’ back line will know it’s in a contest.

At the other end of the ground, North will believe they have the firepower through Jarrad Waite, Ben Brown, Mason Wood, Taylor Garner and Kayne Turner that will ask a great deal of St Kilda’s defence which was more than a little banged up at the completion of the Crows match.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 11 points

Saturday, 17 June

Richmond v Sydney, MCG 11.45am

In a season where tipping and predictions have been a nightmare, we feel comfortable enough making one declaration regarding this match. Sydney will not have 39 shots on goal and finish with 25 majors like they did when the two teams met late last season.

As good as the Swans were on that occasion, the Tigers were putrid and merely limping to the final siren to round out a forgettable year which had followed three successive finals campaigns. On what we have seen in the first half of the season, Damien Hardwick’s men look destined to return to the September scene, thanks in no small part to Dustin Martin, who now its comfortably among the game’s elite.

The Swans boast a swag of talented performers, chiefly through the midfield where Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy and Isaac Heeney had a profound influence in the mauling of the Western Bulldogs last Thursday night. Martin will head up his team’s on-ball division in what shapes as a crucial battle, but it is his side’s even spread of contributors and better recent record at the MCG that tips the scales in the hosts’ favour.

VERDICT: Richmond by 17 points

Port Adelaide v Brisbane, Adelaide Oval 2.35pm

One of these sides in round 12 recorded a resounding victory and the other was on the receiving end of a touch-up. Entering the weekend, that looked like it would always be the case. The fact that Brisbane smacked Fremantle and Port Adelaide succumbed meekly to Essendon caused just about everyone to scratch their heads.

In the long term, the Power’s performance might provide coach Ken Hinkley with the necessary ammunition to ensure his charges are switched on for 120 minutes every week, starting here. Port’s game plan is built around a sturdy defence and it is hard to see how the Lions will generate enough entries and clean shots on goal to trouble the Power before their home fans, even taking into account the influence of Dayne Beams, Dayne Zorko and Tom Rockliff.

Conversely, the Power have filled their boots on more than one occasion at home this season, with Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray on the end of some slick work further afield. Paddy Ryder has led Port’s midfield for the bulk of the season and will appreciate being back at home rather than running around Etihad Stadium being booed by Essendon supporters.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 48 points

Gold Coast v Carlton, Metricon Stadium 5.25pm

Having lost to Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney in the first fortnight, casting doubt on the future of coach Rodney Eade, Gold Coast are on the brink of squaring away their season at 6-6. It would be a terrific accomplishment and have them well and truly in the finals conversation given the form of influential trio Gary Ablett, Tom Lynch and Steven May.

Assuming that will happen however is fraught with danger. Carlton might lack the talent of most other sides, but their desperation, discipline and game plan implemented by coach Brendon Bolton ensures they are highly competitive. Just ask GWS. How the Blues rebound out of the stirring win over the Giants six days earlier will reveal a lot about their maturity.

The Suns are not yet fully furnished, but their ability to get over the top of West Coast and Hawthorn in the past fortnight has been full of merit. And Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium on what is likely to be a fast track is always a challenge for visiting sides. Ed Curnow shapes as a logical opponent for Ablett and how effective he is against the dual Brownlow medallist could well dictate how long the Blues remain in the contest.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 20 points

Sunday, 18 June

Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

The football world is waiting patiently for the Western Bulldogs to flick the switch. So too, for that matter, are some of the Bulldogs players. Their effort opposed to Sydney last Thursday night was appalling and has ensured the spotlight shines brightly on the premiers ahead of this clash with Melbourne, who are starting to gather some momentum after a topsy-turvy start to the year.

The Bulldogs’ best is very good. That we know. But we have only seen it fleetingly in patches of games this season and Luke Beveridge will demand a far more uncompromising approach from his midfielders in particular against the Demons, who are highly effective at the stoppages courtesy of Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, Jordan Lewis, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson and Christian Petracca.

And the Bulldogs also need to start applying sustained scoreboard pressure. They have booted only 59 goals in their past six matches. Melbourne don’t defend like an A-grade outfit, but their ballistic approach and ability to score quickly keeps them in contests even when they have periods of ineffectiveness. The Bulldogs emerged with a few bumps and bruises out of a torrid past month of their fixture. With some respite on the horizon, they need to make a move. Their premiership defence depends on it.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 21 points

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