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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 10

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Thursday, 25 May

Geelong v Port Adelaide, Simonds Stadium 5.20pm

Having endured three weeks of criticism for poor performances, Geelong rebounded in such a manner against the Western Bulldogs last Friday night that they are now in the premiership conversation. It is that sort of season.

What we learnt out from the victory over the premiers was the Cats can tackle — when they want to. Their pressure was outstanding from the opening bounce, with the return of Scott Selwood a boost to a midfield which is continually paced by Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood, with a little help from Mitch Duncan.

Port Adelaide hit town confident and well rested after their Shanghai success against Gold Coast when they produced an impressive all-round performance. They won the stoppages, defended stoutly and scored heavily. There is no denying they are finals contenders, but there is the nagging doubt that they have lost to Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and West Coast this season. Adding to the enormity of the task, they make the trip to Geelong minus Chad Wingard (calf).

VERDICT: Geelong by 20 points.

Friday, 26 May

Sydney v Hawthorn, SCG 5.50pm

A battle between two 3-6 sides doesn’t exactly scream box office. But there is great interest in this match — and not just because it is under the Friday night lights. Sydney are stirring and look every bit the finals outfit most expected they would be entering the season.

The Swans have monstered Brisbane, North Melbourne and St Kilda in the past three weeks, with the return to form of midfielders Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery proving decisive, while the run and carry of both Zac Jones and Nic Newman is genuine cause for optimism.

Hawthorn are banged up and venture to the Harbour City having coughed up a game against Collingwood which was in their keeping. Former Swan Tom Mitchell amassed 50 disposals, but the lack of support was alarming. The Hawks’ inability to produce four quarters is hurting them, as is their skill level. Expect the Swans to show no mercy.

VERDICT: Sydney by 35 points.

Saturday, 27 May

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium 11.45am

The Western Bulldogs have been competitive in every match they have played this season. But they remain only 5-4 and are clinging to a spot inside the top eight. The even nature of the competition suggests they are still very much in the premiership mix, however they need to get on their bike — and soon.

St Kilda took a step backwards last Saturday when they failed to handle the heat applied by Sydney. Their season up until then had been sound, but the expected absence here of Nick Riewoldt (knee) is a blow given Paddy McCartin looked short of a gallop when called up to replace Josh Bruce last weekend.

Both sides can defend very well, but the depth and class of the Bulldogs midfield shapes as the key. Jordan Roughead looks likely to return after overcoming a pre-season hamstring injury and if he can win his battle with Billy Longer, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniels, Luke Dahlhaus and Mitch Wallis might produce numbers which overwhelm the Saints.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 18 points.

Melbourne v Gold Coast, Traeger Park 2.35pm

Melbourne seemingly set up their season in round eight when they ventured to Adelaide Oval and downed the Crows by 41 points. Yet eight days later, they were outmuscled  by North Melbourne and came up short in a match most expected they would win.

The defeat left them 4-5 and with their backs to the wall ahead of this encounter with Gold Coast, themselves needing to rebound strongly after a poor showing in China. The Demons are a very accomplished outfit in and around the centre square thanks to Nathan Jones, Christian Petracca, Jordan Lewis and Jack Viney, but they will not have it all their own way.

David Swallow is expected to return after he was rested for the trip to Shanghai and he is the Suns’ barometer. When the bullocking WA midfielder plays, Gold Coast are a three-to-four-goal better side. That is because he enables the outside polish of Gary Ablett, Touk Miller and Aaron Hall to flourish. If that trio gets quality supply, then Tom Lynch becomes a factor. Not a great deal separates these two teams, but the fact Melbourne are more familiar with Alice Springs tips the scales in their favour.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 13 points.

Richmond v Essendon, MCG 5.25pm

It is debatable whether one side’s misfortune creates as much mirth to opposition fans as that of Richmond. Three successive narrow losses, including two in six days when the Tigers had all but pocketed the four points, sparked intense commentary. Heaven help Damien Hardwick and his players if history is repeated here.

Richmond are clearly a better team than last year. However, they are riding a four-match losing streak after starting 5-0 and facing a revitalised Essendon outfit, buoyant after dispatching Geelong and West Coast in the past fortnight. The Tigers’ defence will have its work cut out halting Essendon’s mosquito fleet of Josh Green, Orazio Fantasia, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Travis Colyer. Then there is the small matter of Joe Daniher, whose battle with perennial All-Australian Alex Rance is compulsory viewing.

Richmond’s midfield, led by Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Shaun Grigg, had Greater Western Sydney on the back foot from the outset last week. If they are able to again exert an influence and Dion Prestia bounces back after a shaky return match following two weeks out with a hamstring strain, the Tigers might just edge the Bombers in a match that has a genuine big feel about it.

VERDICT: Richmond by 10 points.

Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval 5.40pm

Adelaide coach Don Pyke and his players would have been smiling on the inside when it was revealed on Wednesday by Fremantle coach Ross Lyon that giant ruckman Aaron Sandilands would miss this match with a hamstring strain. But if the Crows will need to get their hands dirty if they are to celebrate win No.8 for the season.

The Dockers are at their grinding best at present — both at Domain Stadium and interstate. Their big-bodied midfield is complemented by the outside run of Bradley Hill, ball-winning ability of Lachie Neale and Connor Blakely and rare talent of Michael Walters. Blakely will almost certainly go to Rory Sloane, who can expect a torrid evening from the Fremantle players.

The big issue for the Dockers is slowing down Adelaide. Sam Jacobs will fancy his chances of dominating Sandilands’ replacement, Jon Griffin, and if that is the case, Fremantle’s defence can expect a busy night. The ballistic nature with which Adelaide move the ball to a forward line bursting at the seams with options, notably Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts, Tom Lynch and Charlie Cameron, is frightening.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 30 points.

Sunday, 28 May

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG 11.10am

We have remarked more than once this season that the favouritism tag doesn’t sit well with Collingwood. And it certainly looked that way for the first half of last Saturday night’s match against Hawthorn before the Magpies warmed to their work and overran the Hawks to release the pressure valve on coach Nathan Buckley.

A feature of that performance was the depth of Collingwood’s midfield. Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom, Jack Crisp, Adam Treloar and Daniel Wells are all high class and when they are pitched into battle against a Brisbane side missing Tom Rockliff (shoulder) and Mitch Robinson (foot), it is difficult to draw a conclusion that doesn’t result in a Collingwood win.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 45 points.

Carlton v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

Fans of both sides would be hard pressed not to be satisfied with the direction their clubs are taking. Carlton are on the right track under Brendon Bolton and North Melbourne, having butchered some games earlier in the season, have won three of their past four and boast a percentage that keeps them on the periphery of the top eight.

The winners here will be 4-6 and still in the hunt for a crack at a finals berth. On what we have seen recently, coupled with the events of last Sunday, that should be the Kangaroos. They imposed themselves against Melbourne and prevailed, while the Blues return to Melbourne after being involved in a grinding wet-weather affair opposed to Fremantle.

The loss to the Dockers was compounded by the season-ending knee injury sustained by Sam Rowe. His absence is a blow considering the Kangaroos possess dangerous marking targets inside 50 in Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite and Mason Wood. That this match is at Etihad Stadium is also a bonus for North.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 21 points.

West Coast v GWS, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Home sweet home. West Coast will relish the comforts of Domain Stadium and their boisterous supporter base when they host Greater Western Sydney in a match with top-four implications. Such a statement would appear strange given the lambasting the Eagles have received in the wake of their putrid display against Essendon last Sunday.

For all their faults on the road, Adam Simpson’s side is 6-3 and only one win behind GWS, who have dodged successive bullets against Collingwood and Richmond. But there comes a time when a bullet has your name on it and that occasion looms large here. The Giants’ arsenal has been diminished by an extensive injury list, which this week features forwards Rory Lobb (groin) and Steve Johnson (knee). Their unavailability comes on top of Devon Smith’s serious knee injury.

Before the Essendon debacle, the Eagles had defended superbly in their three wins over Fremantle, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs. Even in the absence of Sharrod Wellingham (ankle), it would be a surprise if they leaked a score like they did last Sunday. Likewise, it is safe to assume the Eagles will be ferocious from the outset as they were against the Dockers in round six — a week after being mauled by Hawthorn.

VERDICT: West Coast by 25 points.

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