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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 7

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Geelong v GWS, GMHBA Stadium, 5.50pm

Geelong had an opportunity to make a statement against Sydney at three-quarter-time last Saturday, only to be embarrassed in the final 30 minutes. They cannot afford to make the same mistake here against a banged-up Greater Western Sydney outfit.

The Giants have only lost one match this year, but aren’t humming like the well-oiled machine we know they can be. Injuries to key personnel Josh Kelly, Rory Lobb and Toby Greene haven’t helped, and their task of toppling the Cats in enemy territory on the Friday night stage was made considerably harder when it was revealed this week that Jeremy Cameron and Brett Deledio would also miss.

Geelong were obliterated out of the centre square in the final term by the Swans and Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan and Sam Menegola will need to address that against a GWS side which is renowned as being extremely proficient at the coalface, thanks in no small part to Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio.

VERDICT: Geelong by 11 points

SATURDAY

Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast, Mars Stadium, Ballarat, 11.45am

At the start of the week, this looked a match well within Gold Coast’s reach. Then came the news Steven May (finger) and Tom Lynch (knee) would be absent, depriving Stuart Dew of his critically important co-captains at a ground the Suns have never seen before.

The Bulldogs took care of Carlton last Friday night, but it wasn’t an authoritative display. Rather a workmanlike effort, littered with far too many mistakes, against an opponent bereft of class, experience and self-belief. Luke Beveridge continues to promote youth, but he also needs to find the right mix and a forward structure capable of cashing in on the glut of possession won by Lachie Hunter, Jack Macrae, Marcus Bontempelli and co.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 23 points

Essendon v Hawthorn, MCG, 12.10pm

Having signed a contract extension earlier this year, there is no danger of John Worsfold losing his job. But there is no danger of the spotlight being eased on the Bombers coach until he gets his side back on track after a horrible start to the season.

The Bombers were smashed after half-time by Melbourne last Sunday and now confront bitter rvials Hawthorn, who bounced back in Tasmania last Saturday night after being poor the week prior against North Melbourne. The Hawks were a lot harder at the contest opposed to St Kilda and eventually wore them down, with Luke Breust continuing his excellent start to the year in front of goal.

Essendon lit up Hawthorn in their only meeting last season with their leg speed and dare. Both are sadly lacking this season as key performers Joe Daniher and Zach Merrett are a long way removed from their very best form. Hawthorn’s midfield, headed by Tom Mitchell, Isaac Smith and Jaeger O’Meara, looms as a real issue for the Bombers.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 24 points

West Coast v Port Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

In a quirk in the AFL environment, there are certain sides which prove mighty hard for opposition teams to nut. West Coast are that team from a Port Adelaide perspective. The Eagles and Power have fought out some terrific tussles in recent times — last year’s dramatic elimination final is a case in point — but West Coast have more often than not found themselves on the right side of the ledger.

In saying that, Port have had success against the Eagles in Perth, albeit at Subiaco Oval, not Optus Stadium, which they won’t have an opportunity to set foot on until game day because of the hardness of the ground. That is an added bonus for the Eagles, who have built up an excellent record at the venue.

There is no denying the class of both sides, with Port stopping their mini-slump with a solid win against North Melbourne. Their good players performed well and they were bolder with their approach. It is something they need to continue, even though the absence of Chad Wingard (hamstring) hurts. The Eagles are on the quick back-up after staving off Fremantle, but it’s hard to tip against them at home.

VERDICT: West Coast by 16 points

Sydney v North Melbourne, SCG, 5.25pm

There have been games this season at the SCG where the football world simply expected Sydney to prevail. But the round two loss to Port Adelaide and slip-up to Adelaide in round five show the Swans are very much gettable at their eastern suburbs fortress.

But the Power and Crows are at a different level to North Melbourne, this week’s opponent, who have struggled in recent seasons to contain the Swans. However, they will encounter a slightly foreign version of Sydney in this game. The Swans will again be without Lance Franklin and Dan Hannebery through injury. John Longmire’s men overcame their absence last week to record a famous win in Geelong, the performance of captain Josh Kennedy admirable.

North are very rigid in their defensive structure and the prospect of a smaller Sydney forward line will no doubt have caused Kangaroos coach Brad Scott and his match committee plenty of consternation during the week. And if Sydney are able to hold sway inside the centre square like they did in the last term against Geelong, the Kangaroos’ back line will be under enormous pressure.

VERDICT: Sydney by 32 points

Adelaide v Carlton, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

For the first time in their proud VFL-AFL history, Carlton have started a season 0-6. Their plight is not going to get any better in the short term. The Blues venture to Adelaide Oval for this assignment against the Crows, who were electric at stages against Gold Coast, with the return from injury of Matt Crouch proving a boost at the stoppages.

Carlton don’t have anywhere near the class of Adelaide and their lack of finishing in front of goal is also costly given they don’t generate the amount of forward-50 entries of the elite sides. At the other end of the ground, the Crows are expected to welcome back brilliant goalsneak Eddie Betts into a forward line that has a range of options.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 49 points

SUNDAY

Richmond v Fremantle, MCG, 11.45am

There is never a good time to run headlong into Richmond. Sadly for Fremantle, they have to make the trek east to the MCG without Michael Walters, who injured his left knee against West Coast, and Aaron Sandilands at the back end of a stretch of games forced upon the club because his deputy, Sean Darcy, is unavailable with a knee issue.

The Tigers showed no ill-effects from the quick turnaround from their Anzac eve game, running over the top of Collingwood in the final quarter. But this will be their third match in 13 days and sometimes these are the matches as opposed to the quick back-ups, that cause sides trouble. Fremantle will be hoping that is the case.

The Dockers did stun Richmond after the siren in the corresponding match last season, but the Tigers they will encounter on the weekend are a completely different beast. And a scary one at that.

VERDICT: Richmond by 39 points

St Kilda v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 1.20pm

Melbourne took a step forward in the second half of their match against Essendon last Sunday. The challenge for Simon Goodwin and his players is to ensure they continue in that vein, rather than take a couple of steps back as we have seen too often in recent times.

The hunt the Demons displayed was first-class, with the distribution and around-the-ground influence of All-Australian ruckman Max Gawn undeniably important. It gave us a glimpse of what Melbourne are capable of when they are at their very best. We cannot say the same about St Kilda because we haven’t seen it for far too long.

The Saints are willing at the stoppages, but the connectivity with their forwards is non-existent. And when the ball does venture inside 50m, you’d swear their back men, not their talented goal kickers, are being entrusted with the responsibility of converting.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 24 points

Brisbane v Collingwood, Gabba, 2.40pm

Collingwood lost their match against Richmond, but no admirers given how they performed. But they did lose three key soldiers — James Aish (knee), Ben Reid (Achilles) and Brayden Maynard (ankle) — ahead of a match they should be winning.

Brisbane have only two genuine A-graders — Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko — and one half of that pairing is sadly out of touch. And it’s not the former Magpie. Zorko hasn’t learnt yet how to overcome a tag and some of his efforts opposed to Greater Western Sydney last weekend were staggeringly ordinary. He has to find a way to inject himself into the contest — and quickly — if Brisbane are to save a season that is spiralling into the abyss.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 19 points

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