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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 4

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Collingwood v Carlton, MCG, 4.30pm

Collingwood would love nothing better than to twist the knife in bitter rivals Carlton. And it would appear they have been presented with a golden opportunity to do just that.

The Magpies hit this round-four opener off a bye, allowing them to refresh physically and mentally, whilst the Blues are required to back up off six days knowing full well that they are fatiguing in games, especially after half-time.

Collingwood are at their best when given a green light to take the game on and it would be somewhat of a surprise if Craig McRae deviated from that approach with what he has seen from the Blues. The Magpies give their opponents a look although it is debatable whether Carlton are efficient enough to cash in.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

Same Game Multi: Collingwood to win, Jack Crisp to have 20+ disposals and Nick Daicos to have 30+ disposals @ $3.55*

FRIDAY

Geelong v Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium, 4.40pm

Melbourne predictably swung the axe at selection after slumping to 0-3 on the year with the bad loss to Gold Coast at the MCG. The inclusions, headlined by Kozzy Pickett, will no doubt provide a spark but the senior core of this line-up also must perform at a higher standard.

Talking of standards, Geelong aren’t at their customary level just yet, although the return of Tom Stewart from a knee injury cannot come soon enough. The Cats are so much better organised with Stewart behind the ball and his presence becomes even more telling given how inept Melbourne’s forward line is.

Will Simon Goodwin commit to change or continue with an approach that is no longer sustainable?

VERDICT: Geelong by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Jeremy Cameron and Tyson Stengle to each kick 2+ goals @ $2.85*

SATURDAY

Gold Coast v Adelaide, People First Stadium, 10.20am

Two of the more exciting teams in the competition, Gold Coast and Adelaide, will put their top-eight credentials on the line in what promises to be an entertaining, rollicking affair on the Glitter Strip.

The Suns return to Queensland for their first home game of 2025, seemingly without a worry in the world off the back of successive road wins. As for Adelaide, they have been transformed into an offensive juggernaut with the three-headed key-target monster of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker proving scary.

The Crows will be without Matt Crouch (managed) and Josh Rachele (ribs), denying Matthew Nicks key personnel against a Gold Coast side powered midfield by Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell and Touk Miller.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Same Game Multi: Gold Coast to win and game total over 170.5 points @ $2.25*

Richmond v Brisbane, Gabba, 1.15pm

Brisbane haven’t yet hit their straps for a full four quarters in 2025. Richmond would know that and be praying the premiers don’t decide to flick the switch and be invested from the opening bounce.

If they do and are, the heavy losses back-to-back at the hands of Port Adelaide and St Kilda could be dwarfed. In all likelihood though, the Lions will do just enough and be intent to chalk up another W and jet back to Queensland with their unbeaten record intact.

The return of Oscar McInerney is great news for Brisbane, who will also be expecting Charlie Cameron to build on what he produced in his first match of the season last weekend against Geelong.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 30 points or more

Same Game Multi: Levi Ashcroft to have 20+ disposals and Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley to have 25+ disposals @ $3.20*

North Melbourne v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 4.35pm

A key indicator in a side’s rise up the ladder is its ability to take care of business at home. For North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium is home. In two games this year they have been competitive against the Western Bulldogs and blistering in the win over Melbourne.

They now get a look at Sydney, who venture south off a bye but without sparkplug Tom Papley (ankle). The Swans wore down Fremantle prior to last weekend in a win that was richly deserved.

North Melbourne will be hoping that Tristan Xerri (hamstring) gets to the start line and provides his midfielders with quality supply. As arguably the Kangaroos’ most important player, the result could well hinge on his availability.

VERDICT: North Melbourne to win

Same Game Multi: North Melbourne +14.5 points, Chad Warner to have 20+ disposals and Harry Sheezel to have 25+ disposals @ $2.75*

SUNDAY

GWS v West Coast, ENGIE Stadium, 11.10am

Spare a thought for West Coast’s defence. Already trying to make do without Tom Barrass, the Eagles’ backline woes were further exposed last weekend when Jeremy McGovern suffered an adductor injury.

His absence leaves the visitors seriously undermanned against a forward line dripping in goal-kicking options … Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene and Jake Stringer just to name a few.

The simple fact here is GWS win this match by as much as they want. The Eagles will be powerless to halt the orange tsunami.

VERDICT: GWS by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Toby Greene and Aaron Cadman to kick 2+ goals and Jesse Hogan to kick 3+ goals @ $4.25*

Port Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 1.20pm

The real deal or a side that is still very much in the developmental stage, not withstanding their undeniable upside. That is what the football world is wrestling with in respect to St Kilda.

There has been much to like over the past fortnight, although the most recent win came over Richmond, who were spanked a week earlier by Port Adelaide. And the win was at Marvel Stadium, a far cry from the venue for this match, Adelaide Oval.

The Power will be vastly different in style and substance this weekend with the return of Zak Butters. And they need to be. Performances like the one turned in against Essendon doesn’t pay the bills.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

Same Game Multi: Willie Rioli to kick 1+ goal and Jason Horne-Francis to kick 1+ goal and have 25+ disposals @ $4.25*

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium, 3.10pm

Fremantle were never going to be lauded for beating West Coast. It sure hells beat the alternative, however. The pressure valve was released ever so slightly with the 38-point western derby win, a result that hopefully sets the boys from Cockburn on their way.

The Western Bulldogs will be no pushovers though. They hit town knowing what can be achieved against Fremantle at Optus Stadium and are also full of belief despite being presented with considerable adversity.

Shai Bolton is still settling into his new surrounds, but there were signs in the derby that he isn’t far away from having a profound impact in a match of relevance. Sunday is one such encounter.

VERDICT: Fremantle to win

Same Game Multi: Either side to win by 24 points or less and Ed Richards to have 25+ disposals @ $3*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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