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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 3

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Essendon v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 4.30pm

If Essendon require inspiration on how to bounce back after a horror performance, they need to look no further than this week’s opponents Port Adelaide. The Power were pathetic in round one opposed to Collingwood, yet rebounded grandly against Richmond at home last weekend.

The 0-2 Bombers have to find the fire within after being steamrolled by Adelaide last Saturday and while the Crows are making noises about being the best team in SA, the Power did play in a preliminary final in 2024 and have won 11 of their past 12 matches at Marvel Stadium.

It is that record which should provide coach Ken Hinkley some much-needed comfort as the club’s medical room is bursting at the seams and denying him access to quality personnel. Essendon will respond. Port will be ready for it.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide to win

Same Game Multi: Essendon +24.5 points, Sam Durham to have 20+ disposals and Nic Martin to have 25+ disposals @ $2.85*

FRIDAY

Carlton v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 4.40pm

Off what we have witnessed this season, it isn’t a shock the Western Bulldogs are favourites to beat Carlton. But what we do know over a long period of time is that Luke Beveridge is best when he is the hunter, not the hunted.

His teams reflect his personality and as successful as he has been at the Whitten Oval, there is a pattern which is impossible to overlook. With that in mind, Carlton are up to their eyeballs in this encounter, even factoring in no Harry McKay due to personal reasons,

The Blues’ inability to transfer the ball from defence with efficiency and link up effectively also going forward has been an issue for longer than their two games in 2025. Michael Voss and his coaches need to address it. What plans can they implement here to give themselves a chance at causing an upset?

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win

Same Game Multi: Carlton +17.5 points, Zac Williams to kick 1+ goals and Sam Walsh to have 25+ disposals @ $2.75*

SATURDAY

Melbourne v Gold Coast, MCG, 10.20am

Gold Coast and travel hasn’t been a formula for success from a tipping or punting perspective over the journey. The demolition of West Coast at Optus Stadium a fortnight ago though gave Suns believers renewed confidence that good things are on the horizon.

That will be rubber stamped should they venture to the MCG and take down Melbourne, who undid much of their good work against GWS with a poor effort opposed to North Melbourne last Sunday across town at Marvel Stadium.

The absence of Charlie Ballard will hurt Gold Coast, but the forecast of a fine day, and the spacious surrounds at the home of football early into their campaign should prove extremely beneficial for Damien Hardwick’s men. Expect them to try to run the Demons off their legs.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Same Game Multi: Noah Anderson, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca to all have 25+ disposals @ $2.48*

St Kilda v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 1.15pm

Terribly disappointing round one. Exceptional for large periods a week later. Barring a major regression, St Kilda should be able to cash in on a softish start to their season and improve to 2-1.

The Saints executed Ross Lyon’s game plan admirably against Geelong and if they are anywhere near that level here, Richmond will be in for another defeat after copping a reality check at the hands of Port Adelaide.

The Tigers welcome back Tom Lynch from suspension. His presence is massive although his proven ability to hit the scoreboard is going to be impacted you would think by Richmond’s anticipated struggles further afield.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: St Kilda -15.5 points, over 162.5 points game total, Jack Higgins to kick 2+ goals @ $3*

Hawthorn v GWS, UTAS Stadium, 4.35pm

We need to spin the wheels a little bit to witness the match of the round, however if recent meetings between Hawthorn and GWS are any guide, it will be well worth the wait.

Very little has separated the teams when they have locked horns of late and this could be one of several games they play in 2025 if current form and expectation is factored in. The Giants made a statement at selection by naming Jesse Hogan, Jake Stringer and Kieren Briggs.

The Hawks also leant on some experience at the selection table, recalling Luke Breust to cover for Connor Macdonald. Hawthorn have areas they need to work on. That is a tad scary for their rivals though given they sit on top of the ladder.

VERDICT: Hawthorn to win

Same Game Multi: GWS +24.5 points, under 178.5 points game total @ $1.85*

Brisbane v Geelong, Gabba, 4.35pm

Confidently settling on a tip here is fraught with danger. Not because Brisbane aren’t operating at full tilt in the glow of their premiership success. Nor the fact Geelong stumbled badly against St Kilda.

Rather the weather forecast. The Gabba will be saturated for this clash with the forecast of up to 75ml of rain on the day after heavy rain on Friday. With that in mind, it could well come down to the side which is prepared to pay the price, physically more so than mentally.

Brisbane named Charlie Cameron (calf) and Kai Lohmann (ankle), inclusions that are undeniably important with goals likely to be at a premium.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Game total under 160.5 points, Jarrod Berry and Max Holmes to get 20+ disposals @ $3.10*

SUNDAY

Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval, 12.20pm

There is an air of excitement about this match, something which not even the most optimistic Adelaide or North Melbourne supporter could have forecast prior to the season getting underway.

The Crows mightn’t have beaten a great deal, but the manner in which they have dispatched St Kilda and Essendon has been powerful with a capital P. They look a vastly different and more potent outfit than at any other stage of Matthew Nicks’ coaching career.

North Melbourne’s win over Melbourne, highlighted by the midfield blitz in the early part of the final term, generated considerable goodwill. This is a tougher test, but it could be the win that actually gets things rolling at Arden Street.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 25 points or more

Same Gamr Multi: Game total over 188.5 points, Caleb Daniel and Harry Sheezel to have 25+ disposals, Izak Rankine to kick 2+ goals @ $4.80*

West Coast v Fremantle, Optus Stadium, 3.10pm

In a perfect world both Andrew McQualter and Justin Longmuir would be entering the first western derby of the year with at least one win under their belt. The world, as we know, is far from perfect.

The Dockers have lived in the spotlight after a shocker down in Geelong was followed by a narrow loss at home against Sydney. It came just hours after the Eagles surprised the football world with a spirited display opposed to Brisbane at the Gabba.

A repeat performance will make things interesting. If West Coast hold their ground, especially in the midfield, the pressure will build on the Dockers. But the overall class of Fremantle looms large.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Josh Treacy to kick 2+ goals and game total over 167.5 points @ $2.48*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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