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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 23

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Essendon v Sydney, Marvel Stadium, 5.40pm

A turning point or an overdue response with a questionable shelf life? The question needs to be asked about Sydney’s last-gasp triumph over Collingwood in round 22.

We will get our answer at the completion of this contest. For John Longmire and his Sydney players, it simply has to be the former. We know that the Swans’ best is elite, it’s just been a while since we witnessed it until the cream (Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney) rose to the top in the final 20 minutes seven days ago.

The elation on the face of the Swans players was in stark contrast to the utter desolation felt by all connected to Essendon after they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Gold Coast 24 hours later. Sydney will have their moments here. Can the Bombers hang on when they do?

VERDICT: Sydney to win

SATURDAY

Gold Coast v Melbourne, Heritage Bank Stadium, 11.45am

Melbourne have flapped their gums for an eternity now over how great their culture is. We now know it is a crock if we didn’t beforehand.

The Demons have spent a week in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons and venture to Queensland for a clash with Gold Coast, buoyant after taking down Essendon last Saturday night. The Suns might have been fortunate, but they were rewarded for not throwing in the towel.

Mac Andrew kicked the matchwinner against the Bombers, one of seven goals he has booted in the past fortnight. Neither side is going to play finals, so which team is going to generate energy and excitement from within? If this season is any guide, it is Gold Coast at home.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 1-39 points

GWS v Fremantle, ENGIE Stadium, 11.45am

Speculation earlier this week about Josh Treacy and Sean Darcy being available for selection had Fremantle fans thinking an upset was possible. But after they were ruled out for a second straight week, you could almost hear a collective groan.

The Dockers now journey to western Sydney for an assignment at a venue and against an opponent that did nasty things to them in the corresponding match 12 months ago. And the Giants are fresh off taming the Lions in Brisbane.

Jesse Hogan is in line to claim his first Coleman Medal and will be thinking a Dockers backline sans skipper Alex Pearce is ripe for the picking.

VERDICT: GWS by 1-39 points

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG, 2.35pm

At the halfway mark of the season, one of these two appeared a lock for September. That is still the case, although it is Brisbane, not Collingwood, who are seemingly assured of playing finals.

Collingwood’s top-eight hopes were dealt a cruel blow at the SCG last Friday night and they must now pick themselves up and win out to have a chance of defending their flag. The Lions naturally would love nothing more than to close the Magpies’ casket firmly shut.

Having started the year so poorly, Brisbane needed something special to be active in the post-season. It came in the form of an eight-match winning streak. The loss to GWS last weekend threatens to undo much of their excellent work. There has to be a response here.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 5.30pm

The latest Showdown is Adelaide’s grand final. They have admitted as much this week, with young Josh Rachele declaring this was a pseudo-September match for the Crows.

Port wouldn’t have needed to be put on red alert. They understand what’s at stake. Their past three wins over Carlton, Sydney and Melbourne would suggest Ken Hinkley’s men are in a great space. Jason Horne-Francis continues to take great strides and shapes as a critical part of the midfield mix.

The same applies to Izak Rankine, who loves the big stage and only needs a handful of possessions to have a profound impact, either in the midfield or up forward.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

St Kilda v Geelong, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

As long as Patrick Dangerfield remains healthy, Geelong remain very much in the premiership conversation. The influence of the Cats skipper was on show again last round when he had 20 possessions, kicked a goal and tallied 11 clearances to lift the team to a vital win over Fremantle.

It was yet another reminder of his undeniable skillset, although St Kilda were well aware of it having been exposed to Dangerfield’s brilliance earlier this season in a narrow loss.

The Saints are a better side now than they were in the initial encounter, but so too are Geelong. The Cats are building nicely and have designs on a top-four finish.

VERDICT: Geelong by 1-39 points

SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 11.10am

The Western Bulldogs have shown a propensity to mix their form over a long period of time. It was the case again last weekend when they never really looked likely against Adelaide.

It has raised the stakes for this game against North Melbourne, although they can take solace from the fact they have owned the Kangaroos for a few seasons. The absence of ball magnet Harry Sheezel (ankle) is a blow for North, who have had to reconcile with a shocking finish opposed to West Coast.

The Bulldogs simply must win this match. And they will.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 25 points or more

Hawthorn v Richmond, MCG, 1.20pm

It is impossible to poke holes in the form of Hawthorn. Simply impossible. Their body of work is first class and having climbed into eighth position, it would be a huge surprise if they were to relinquish it.

They are elite defensively, the midfield is finding a heap of the football and the spread of goalkickers the envy of nearly every side in the competition.

In short, Hawthorn are everything Richmond aren’t and that will be reflected in the final scoreline.

VERDICT: Hawthorn -44.5 points at the line

West Coast v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

At the start of the week, West Coast were the clear outsiders. As much as the Eagles were coming off back-to-back wins and returning to Optus Stadium for Andrew Gaff’ farewell appearance, it was hard to argue with the bookmakers.

Then it became apparent the injury list at Carlton was so extensive, it wouldn’t matter who they played. So here we are. The Eagles, under interim coach Jarrad Schofield, are seeking a third successive win and sixth victory for the year.

Carlton have slid outside the top eight and the freefall might well continue. No Harry McKay and no Charlie Curnow is a brutal hand dealt to Blues coach Michael Voss.

VERDICT: West Coast to win 

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