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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 21

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Western Bulldogs v GWS, Marvel Stadium, 5.30pm

The Western Bulldogs’ moment of truth has arrived. Win tonight and stay relevant in the finals conversation. Lose and be prepared to reconcile with the fact September is all but out of reach.

The Giants were humbled by the Bulldogs in the nation’s capital earlier this year, a rare victory by Luke Beveridge’s men against a side domiciled in the top eight. The loss of GWS skipper Toby Greene through suspension, coupled with injuries to Jack Buckley and Josh Kelly, is a concern.

But the Bulldogs will no doubt be mindful of the impact the strike weapons GWS possess — on all lines, including in attack where Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Jake Stringer loom large.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win

Same Game Multi: Jesse Hogan, Aaron Cadman and Sam Darcy to kick 2+ goals @ $4*

FRIDAY

Adelaide v Hawthorn, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Hawthorn remain arguably the most intriguing side in the finals mix. Their best is sublime and has some thinking they’re capable of matching motors with the best in September. But they have to get there first, several believing they could miss altogether.

A reason for that is their tough draw, headlined by this clash with a white-hot Adelaide. The Crows made a complete and utter mess of Port Adelaide last round and would love nothing more than to strengthen their hold on a top-two berth with another victory.

Sam Mitchell is not afraid to deviate from the norm and his intention to use Jack Gunston, Mabior Chol, Mitch Lewis and Calsher Dear in the same line-up is going to be fascinating.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win

Same Game Multi: Karl Amon, Jai Newcombe and Will Day to have 20+ disposals @ $2.48*

SATURDAY

Melbourne v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.20am

Fresh off being on the wrong end of a history-making come-from-behind result against St Kilda, Melbourne have a chance to show what they’re made of.

They can either respond or they can roll over and make coach Simon Goodwin’s hold on his position even more tenuous. The fact they are encountering a West Coast line-up minus Harley Reid (ankle) should make their plight more palatable.

West Coast were fortunate not to be obliterated by Fremantle and look physically and emotionally fatigued from yet another brutal campaign.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Kysiah Pickett to kick 2 goals and have 20+ disposals and Liam Baker and Ryan Maric to have 20+ disposals @ $6*

Gold Coast v Richmond, People First Stadium, 2.10pm

Gold Coast coach Damien Hardwick was refreshingly candid when he fronted the media after the Suns were mauled by Adelaide late last month.

A man boasting such a rich premiership pedigree as he does clearly knew what he was talking about. And his players are obviously buying what he’s selling, responding to that loss with a statement triumph against Brisbane last Saturday.

It was a powerful response and one that looms as a real concern for Richmond, who somehow found a way to shut down Gold Coast earlier this year. With a sniff of September in their nostrils, expect the Suns to shine bright in this contest.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Bailey Humphrey to have 20+ disposals and kick 1+ goal @ $3.65*

Sydney v Essendon, SCG, 2.15pm

Sydney’s finals chances went up in smoke during the third quarter last round when GWS caught fire in arguably the best 30 minutes of football we have seen in 2025.

It leaves the Swans playing for nothing other than pride over the final month of the season. That might be a worry for many clubs. Not Sydney. They remain a professional, high-achieving organisation with a body of work for the past two months that says they’re not prepared to fade away.

Conversely, Essendon haven’t got much to give. They have been crippled by injuries and the beatings are taking a toll.

VERDICT: Sydney by 25 points or more

Same Game Multi: Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner to have 25+ disposals @ $6.10*

Collingwood v Brisbane, MCG, 5.35pm

Brisbane coach Chris Fagan trusts his players implicitly. It would be hard not to. He sung the leadership group’s praises this week for owning its mistakes against Gold Coast, but also fired a shot across the bow by declaring the performance “better be a one-week thing”.

The comments would have piqued the interest of Collingwood coach Craig McRae. The Magpies know exactly what is at stake for this match, underlined by their selection intent — recalling Scott Pendlebury alongside Jordan De Goey and Bobby Hill.

The Lions won’t have access to Kai Lohmann for the remainder of the home-and-away campaign, but it is incumbent on the team’s midfield to step up to the plate if the premiers are to cause an upset.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

Same Game Multi: Cameron Rayner and Zac Bailey to kick 1+ goals and Jamie Elliott to kick 2+ goals @ $3.25*

SUNDAY

St Kilda v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 11.40am

St Kilda gave their loyal supporters reason for hope with what was a truly remarkable come-from-behind victory over Melbourne. Or should we say Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera gave the Saints fans reason for hope?

His heroics in the final term lifted Ross Lyon’s men to the unlikeliest of wins that hopefully propels them into 2026 with serious momentum. North Melbourne, on the other hand, are mired in mediocrity.

Alastair Clarkson has proven incapable of extracting consistent efforts from his players since arriving at Arden Street, especially at the defensive end. It’s hard to see how that changes here.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Colby McKercher and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to have 30+ disposals @ $3.35*

Geelong v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium, 1.15pm

Geelong’s prospects of a double chance were boosted by their demolition of North Melbourne last Saturday night and are surely enhanced further by the completion of this clash.

Port Adelaide are cooked. Proper cooked. Their threadbare stocks became more depleted this week when Miles Bergman was put on ice for the rest of the season. It leaves them at the mercy of a Cats midfield that runs up huge numbers.

And then there is the small matter of closing down Jeremy Cameron, who is well within his rights to think 100 goals in 2025 is within reach.

VERDICT: Geelong by 40 points or more

Same Game Multi: Jeremy Cameron to have 15+ disposals and kick 5+ goals @ $4.20*

Fremantle v Carlton, Optus Stadium, 3.10pm

If Adelaide have been the most trustworthy side in the competition for the past couple of months, Fremantle aren’t far behind. You could easily argue the case that the Dockers are without peer on that front.

And those in the corner of Fremantle should be on even better terms with themselves after round 21 because the ailing Carlton hit town minus Charlie Curnow and Adam Cerra through injury. It leaves the Blues ripe for the picking.

Fremantle would have beaten West Coast by 15 goals had they kicked accurately and will no doubt be conscious of the fact their percentage needs an uptick.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw to have 30+ disposals and Shai Bolton to kick 1+ goals @ $4.20*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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