Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 21

Posted on August 6, 2023August 6, 2023 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

Richmond welcome back co-captain Toby Nankervis following a three-game suspension. It is indeed timely given the Western Bulldogs’ midfield is powered by Tim English, a strong contender for All-Australian selection.

Will it be enough however, especially with Dustin Martin rested? The Tigers stretched the necks of Melbourne last Sunday, only to come up short. A similar performance could be sufficient to cause an upset against the Bulldogs, although Luke Beveridge’s men at Marvel Stadium are tough to topple.

If the Bulldogs are able to have their way in and around the contest like we know they can, that should be able to paper over the cracks that exist in their game.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win

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SATURDAY

Essendon v West Coast, Marvel Stadium, 11.45am

West Coast are entitled to head east feeling good about themselves after snapping a long run of outs with a narrow win over North Melbourne at Optus Stadium.

But they will also head east minus Shannon Hurn (soreness) and Dom Sheed (foot), with their absence being offset somewhat by the availability of key defender Jeremy McGovern.

If Essendon are serious about making a late-season push towards September action, they will snap a sequence of results (five losses from their past six matches) that is concerning and win well.

VERDICT: Essendon to win by 40 points or more

Adelaide v Gold Coast, Adelaide Oval, 12.10pm

It seemed that Adelaide’s finals hopes had been snuffed out by their pulsating loss to Melbourne at the MCG a fortnight ago. Then came the stunning upset of Port Adelaide.

As difficult as it will be for the Crows to make the finals, all is not lost. The same applies to Gold Coast, who gave their own post-season prospects an injection with their dismantling of Brisbane.

The Suns have had a torrid time against Adelaide in South Australia and with Taylor Walker in excellent nick and the midfield performing anywhere near what we saw in the Showdown, a Crows victory looms large. No Touk Miller (suspended) also hurts.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 1-39 points

Hawthorn v Collingwood, MCG, 2.35pm

Good luck, Hawthorn. Not only do you get Collingwood on the rebound, but you get them before a pro-Magpies crowd (aren’t they all) a month out from finals when spots are up for grabs.

If the Hawks thought St Kilda were slick last weekend, they best brace themselves for a beast that is completely different in so many ways. Bobby Hill returns to liven up a forward line that was subdued against Carlton.

We know the Hawks mix their form. A constant in many of their defeats has been an inability to defend ball movement and stop opposition sides from scoring heavily. Collingwood do both particularly well.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win by 25 points or more

Geelong v Port Adelaide, GMHBA Stadium, 5.25pm

No Mark Blicavs and no Tom Hawkins. Fresh off a defeat at home to Fremantle, that would normally spell trouble for Geelong as they try to scramble into the finals to make the unlikeliest of premiership defences.

But Port Adelaide hit town on a three-match losing streak without Aliir Aliir through concussion, a situation that has seen the club in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons after the defeat to Adelaide.

They will remain in the crosshairs of critics, albeit those outside AFL House, if the rot cannot be stopped. Whilst the market seems too far apart for this clash given the respective body of work turned in by both teams, it’s hard to think the Cats won’t respond to last weekend’s display.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

GWS v Sydney, Giants Stadium, 5.30pm

Seventh heaven! That is where GWS sit heading into this Battle of the Bridge with Sydney after climbing from the canvas to knock out the Western Bulldogs in Ballarat last round.

Unsurprisingly, it was inspirational skipper Toby Greene who landed the telling blows as the Giants rallied after half-time to win a seventh successive game. Greene has been the thorn in the side of every side in the competition at stages throughout his career, including the Swans.

Sydney are in good nick, although they have precious little wriggle room now considering their poor first chunk of the campaign. It’s difficult to poke holes in the form of GWS, who also have the advantage of playing at home.

VERDICT: GWS by 1-39 points

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SUNDAY

North Melbourne v Melbourne, Blundstone Arena, 11.10am

Alastair Clarkson makes his long-awaited return to the coaches’ box for this “home” match against Melbourne in Hobart. It’s conceivable to think there will be stages on Sunday when he wonders why he is putting himself through the ringer.

Melbourne have stormed back into the premiership conversation over the past few weeks thanks to Max Gawn’s dominance and a revitalised forward line. Harrison Petty’s six-goal haul against Richmond last Sunday was enormously important.

The Kangaroos have been putrid for too long now and with their loss to West Coast in round 20, are now in a dogfight to avoid yet another wooden spoon.

VERDICT: Melbourne to win by 25 points or more

St Kilda v Carlton, Marvel Stadium, 1.20pm

After a couple of months of some very bland football, St Kilda awoke from their slumber to put Hawthorn to the sword. It was a display befitting a side inside the top eight.

Talking of top eight, Carlton have stormed in there courtesy of powerful football for several weeks, with last weekend’s dismissal of premiership favourites Collingwood coming a fortnight after flogging second-placed Port Adelaide.

However, the win came at a cost. Adam Cerra suffered another hamstring strain, ruling him out for several weeks. With no Cerra, Sam Walsh and Matt Kennedy in the midfield and Mitch McGovern (hamstring) in defence, the Blues are going to rely heavily on Patrick Cripps and Charlie Curnow.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

Fremantle v Brisbane, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

The loss they needed to have or a critical glimpse into how to best suffocate Brisbane? The narrative surrounding the Lions’ defeat to Gold Coast has been interesting, with the result of this clash sure to reveal a great deal.

The Lions hadn’t done a lot wrong before Lachie Neale and the side had the clamps applied. Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir has been given a handy blueprint in how to negate Neale. It remains to be seen whether he chooses a similar approach.

Fremantle caused one of the upsets of the season when downing Geelong at GMHBA Stadium. It would be a great accomplishment if they could back it up and beat a premiership contender eight days later.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

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