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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 15

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

TUESDAY

Hawthorn v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 3.40pm

Pride will be on the line in this clash between Hawthorn and Adelaide … a Hawks home game at Adelaide Oval. It’s further confirmation that 2020 is a weird one.

The Hawks were overrun by Essendon last week, excusable given they were down a rotation after Jon Patton’s calf injury early in the game. Their first half was good, save for poor goal kicking, and a repeat of that effort will put the onus on the Crows to boot a winning total.

Clearly, that has been something Adelaide haven’t been able to achieve thus far this year. Their commitment against Geelong at their most recent outing was encouraging, although a lack of offensive firepower remains a concern.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 11 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Hawks Win + Under 124.5 Total Match Points + Mitchell / Worpel both get 20+ Disposals @ $3.70

West Coast v Essendon, Gabba, 6.10pm

The margins in a compressed season are so fine, as evidenced by West Coast dropping outside the top four following their loss to Richmond last week. Despite losing, they were competitive for an extended period, indicating they had adjusted to life in the Queensland hub better than the first time around.

That said, they need to produce a quality performance here in the absence of Josh Kennedy (concussion) and Jamie Cripps (personal) to stave off the threat posed by the dangerous Essendon. The Bombers clicked after half-time against Hawthorn and will feel they are a real chance to knock off the Eagles.

Andy McGrath’s work midfield alongside Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel was terrific, while the return of Joe Daniher after more than 450 days off the scene was that of a high-calibre player.

VERDICT: West Coast by 10 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Eagles Win by 1-39 + Gaff / Kelly / Sheed all get 20+ disposals @ $3.90

WEDNESDAY

Richmond v Fremantle, Metricon Stadium, 5.10pm

No matter how you look at this match, it is difficult to see how Fremantle take down Richmond. The Tigers are not only in form, but settled in Queensland, as opposed to an inferior Dockers line-up that only arrived for a second stint this week.

Richmond showed a willingness to attack West Coast from the outset last round and if they arrive at Metricon Stadium tonight with the same attitude, Fremantle’s undermanned back line is going to have its work cut out resisting the pressure and putting the clamps on the Tigers forwards at the same time.

A heavy focus has centered around the attention paid to Nat Fyfe from Matt de Boer last weekend. The Tigers will be conscious of the dual Brownlow medallist, but are more concerned with a team approach and a reliance on their own individual talent. It is a strategy that has served them well.

VERDICT: Richmond by 30 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Tigers Kick 2+ Goals in Every Quarter @ $2.45

THURSDAY

Sydney v Melbourne, Cazaly’s Stadium, 2.40pm

Melbourne might not be everyone’s cup of tea, but it’s hard to deny they are improving as the season progresses. So much so that they are entitled to enter this contest against Sydney with a degree of confidence.

The Demons’ ability to take away St Kilda’s strengths in Alice Springs last weekend was full of merit, with Steven May producing a defensive display right out of the top drawer. Both he and Jake Lever are having excellent seasons and will make goals hard to come by.

The Swans didn’t possess the offensive firepower to trouble Port Adelaide last weekend and were gutted midfield despite Josh Kennedy running up 27 touches. The presence of Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver looms as problematic.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 23 points

SAME GAME COMBO: Dees Win + Oliver / Petracca / Brayshaw all get 20+ disposals @ $3.05

GWS v Carlton, Metricon Stadium, 5.10pm

Think enigmatic and Greater Western Sydney immediately spring to mind. Embarrassed in their first game in WA by Sydney, they were better in the second half opposed to West Coast and then ruthlessly efficient last weekend to eclipse Fremantle.

The most recent performance was one that made the opposition take note, but it will count for little unless they back it up against Carlton. The Blues failed their assignment against Collingwood miserably after half-time, yet have the capacity to stretch the necks of GWS.

Josh Kelly’s absence hurts the Giants, however the depth at Leon Cameron’s disposal outweighs what David Teague can call on, especially with captain Patrick Cripps playing wounded.

VERDICT: GWS by 10 points

SAME GAME COMBO: GWS win + Whitfield / Coniglio / Hopper / Taranto all get 15+ disposals @ $1.85

FRIDAY

Brisbane v Collingwood, Gabba, 5.50pm

All good things must come to an end. Surely. Brisbane last tasted success against Collingwood back in 2010 and seem perfectly placed to experience that winning feeling again.

The Lions are as well rested as you can be in this truncated season after having a bye and get the benefit of playing at the Gabba. Conversely, the Magpies are banged up, yet rediscovering their defensive system that served them so well earlier in the year.

Brisbane have failed on more than one occasion on the big stage in the past 18 months and Chris Fagan would desperately love his players to grab a scalp to validate their progress and send a warning to their rivals.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 13 points

SATURDAY

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 5.40pm

For football fans desperately looking for a fix of Australian Rules on a Saturday, this can’t come quick enough. For North Melbourne supporters wondering how the backside has fallen out of their team’s season, this might be hard to watch.

Port Adelaide are within touching distance of a minor premiership and know very well what is on offer if they can continue on their winning ways. Given what the Kangaroos have dished up in recent weeks, it would be a shock if that didn’t occur.

Robbie Gray’s performance against Sydney last weekend further underlined his class and gave us all another glimpse of his rare skill set.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 34 points

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Hawthorn, Metricon Stadium, 11.05am

St Kilda had their finals aspirations boosted this week when Melbourne butchered their assignment opposed to Sydney in Cairns. But the Saints don’t have the luxury of resting on their laurels after narrow losses to Brisbane and Melbourne.

Reinforcements are on the horizon, although Brett Ratten will probably have to make do with the bulk of his squad he has had access to of late. That should be sufficient to account for Hawthorn, who were listless against Adelaide and paid a high price.

The Hawks selected an experienced team to see off the threat posed by the Crows. Now that round has passed, Alastair Clarkson’s response will be fascinating.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 25 points

Geelong v Essendon, Gabba, 1.35pm

Geelong could be excused for taking their eye off the ball here, peek into the future and think about what lies ahead against Richmond in round 17.

But you sense Chris Scott and his players are very much focused on the present and that means taking down Essendon before girding the loins for next Friday night’s showdown with Richmond, a clash that could decide premiership favouritism.

The Bombers’ finals hopes dissipated with their loss to West Coast, a defeat compounded by a serious ankle injury to Andrew McGrath. His absence will be felt here against a quality Cats outfit.

VERDICT: Geelong by 28 points

Western Bulldogs v West Coast, Metricon Stadium, 4.10pm

West Coast haven’t fired on all cylinders in their second stint in the Queensland hub. To say though that their displays are a marked improvement on what we saw early doors however, is an understatement of some note.

A competitive effort against Richmond was followed by a crucial victory over Essendon. Yet the loss of Luke Shuey with twin hamstring injuries in that game, coupled with the unavailability of Elliot Yeo, could well be felt here against a Western Bulldogs line-up stacked with on-ball options.

The Bulldogs had Geelong on the ropes at quarter-time last Friday night, only to be run down late. With so much at stake, it would be a shock if Luke Beveridge’s troops didn’t come out snarling.

VERDICT: West Coast by 3 points

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