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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 12

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Port Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, 5.50pm

The complexion of this game changed dramatically when it was revealed Brownlow medallist Dustin Martin wouldn’t line up because of a calf injury. The Tigers, eager to prove their worth interstate after losses to Adelaide and West Coast in the first half of the year, quickly went from favourites to outsiders.

Coach Damien Hardwick will likely use Martin’s absence as a challenge, imploring his players to prove they are capable without their talisman. As for Port, they also need to make a statement after butchering a game they should have won against Hawthorn last Saturday in Launceston.

The Power have the midfield and forward line to shred opposition sides, but didn’t play a particularly smart brand of football against the Hawks. Charlie Dixon and Chad Wingard are badly out of touch and need to rediscover their best if Port are to advance deep into September. A win here would help that cause.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 3 points

SATURDAY

Geelong v North Melbourne, GMHBA Stadium, 11.45am

It took 11 rounds, but we finally saw what the Geelong machine, especially the midfield, could do when it fired on all cylinders. But beating a wounded Gold Coast in picture-perfect conditions at Metricon Stadium is a different scenario than taking down an in-form and efficient North Melbourne.

That said, Gary Ablett, Mitch Duncan, Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Sam Menegola will enter this match full of confidence after obliterating the Suns last Saturday. North’s Ben Jacobs will be given a run-with role and it wouldn’t surprise if he is assigned the task of quelling Ablett, while Shaun Higgins and Ben Cunnington will also give the Cats something to think about.

Geelong’s defence has improved significantly as the season has progressed and it’s just as well because it will have its hands full with the likes of Ben Brown, Mason Wood, Jack Ziebell and Jarrad Waite if he returns after being a late withdrawal against Brisbane. The Kangaroos don’t know how not to compete and are sound defensively, but overcoming Geelong in Geelong remains one of the biggest tasks in football.

VERDICT: Geelong by 17 points

GWS v Gold Coast, Spotless Stadium, 2.35pm

Just as the football world waited for Geelong’s midfield to click into overdrive, the wait for the best of Greater Western Sydney went on and on and on. Then came last Sunday. The Giants produced four excellent quarters and were duly rewarded with a road victory over Adelaide that could spark their season.

It would be a major shock if they don’t build on that performance here. The midfield of Dylan Shiel, Josh Kelly, Callan Ward and Stephen Coniglio were outstanding, as was the willingness to hunt the Crows when not in possession. A repeat performance takes care of the Suns, who head to western Sydney without Steven May (ankle), Aaron Young (ankle) and Aaron Hall (pectoral).

VERDICT: GWS by 45 points

St Kilda v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

St Kilda were upbeat over the final quarter against West Coast in Perth last Saturday night. When you are winless since round one, you cling to any small positive you can find. The fact the Eagles were on a six-day break after a trip east and down to 21 men before quarter-time thanks to Jack Darling’s ankle injury didn’t enter the equation in the eyes of the Saints.

If Alan Richardson and his men feel the final 30 minutes at Optus Stadium will springboard them into this match, then they should think again. Sydney have owned the Saints in recent times, not only winning a string of matches, but often by big margins. And alarmingly for St Kilda, many of those victories have been at Etihad Stadium, where the Swans often play some of their best football.

Sydney aren’t at the level John Longmire would like, but they have still built an 8-3 record  … and are unbeaten interstate. Lance Franklin caused the Saints plenty of issues last year and it wouldn’t be a shock if he got off the leash here given the St Kilda defence will be without captain Jarryn Geary (calf) and Jake Carlisle (suspension).

VERDICT: Sydney by 32 points

SUNDAY

Brisbane v Essendon, Gabba, 11.10am

Essendon were dealt a harsh reality check by Richmond last Saturday night, all but killing off their faint finals aspirations. The heavy loss was compounded by a shoulder injury to prime mover David Zaharakis, who is likely to miss six weeks.

Brisbane will relish being back at the Gabba after they were never a chance against North Melbourne last Sunday. The Lions were hit hard by injuries, but they lacked competitiveness from the outset and paid a high price. The season-ending foot injury to Charlie Cameron is a cruel blow for Brisbane, who have plenty of young talent, but are light on for proven performers such as the former Adelaide Crow.

Essendon are not getting value for effort when they go inside their attacking 50 and it is an area which could potentially prove a problem here if the Lions score freely as we have seen them do this season at the Gabba. But if you overlook last weekend and go on Essendon’s previous two wins against Geelong and Greater Western Sydney, that should be good enough to get the points here.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

Fremantle v Adelaide, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

Ross Lyon has called for patience from the club’s supporters as he attempts to regenerate the Fremantle list. Supporters are well within their rights to call for Lyon and his coaching staff to devise a game plan that produces more than a handful of goals for extended periods in games.

The Dockers are set to miss the finals for the third successive season on Lyon’s watch and copped a hammer blow in a bid to chalk up a morale-boosting win when skipper Nat Fyfe was suspended earlier in the week. His absence leaves Fremantle vulnerable around the ball, which is where Crows clearance machine Matt Crouch is most effective.

The Crows have been decimated by injuries to key personnel and head to Perth without a swag of their best players. They weren’t horrible against Greater Western Sydney, but lacked the composure and polish to get the job done. This presents as another opportunity, but even with all of Fremantle’s failings, it won’t be easy.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 10 points

MONDAY

Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG, 1.20pm

After years of disappointment, at times genuine heartache, Melbourne fans are smiling. And so they should be. The Demons have ambushed the premiership conversation with a powerful brand of football that is proving overwhelming for their opposition.

Melbourne monstered Adelaide a fortnight ago and then simply outworked the Western Bulldogs last weekend, raising the stakes for this clash with Collingwood, who are also playing at a level that deserves respect and giving hope to Magpies fans that a finals return is very much on the cards.

The ruck battle here between Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy is worth the price of admission alone. Both have been outstanding this year and key factors in why their respective midfields have generated so much possession. If Melbourne find as much football as they have in recent weeks, Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald shape as the weapons forward of centre who could decide the outcome.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 20 points

NEALE DANIHER TROPHY: Clayton Oliver

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