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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 15

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Sydney, Etihad Stadium, 5.20pm

Advantage Sydney. It might only be small, but there is no doubting the Swans are better suited taking on Richmond at Etihad Stadium than the MCG where they have established a staggeringly dominant record in recent times.

The dimensions of Etihad suit Sydney’s brand of football better than the expanses of the MCG, but that brand will be well and truly tested by the Tigers, who sit atop the ladder after an excellent first half of their premiership defence.

The return from a serious foot injury by Daniel Rioli against Geelong before the Tigers’ mid-season bye was ominous for their opposition in the run to September. His goal sense and pressure without the football was right on point and will ensure the Swans’ reliable back line is feeling the heat from the outset.

VERDICT: Richmond by 15 points

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 5.50pm

The Western Bulldogs butchered a golden opportunity to set up their second half of the year when overrun by North Melbourne last Saturday night. They now have to face up to a refreshed Geelong, who are well within their rights to have designs on a top-four finish. Perhaps even top two.

The Bulldogs are only able to play in fits and spurts and periods of prosperity in front of goal are inevitably followed by prolonged periods of drought. The Cats have shored up their defence superbly since a shaky start to 2018 and now that Gary Ablett is running into some form, the vaunted midfield rotation is starting to make an impact. And that is a real concern for Luke Beveridge given the havoc Patrick Dangerfield has wreaked on the Bulldogs of late.

VERDICT: Geelong by 34 points

SATURDAY

Carlton v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 11.45am

Carlton continue to face many challenges. One of the most important ones for them is to ensure they deliver maximum output each and every week. Not be poor three weeks out of every month and then have a fair dinkum crack against an old enemy like we saw with Collingwood last Sunday. The fact that this match doubles as Kade Simpson’s 300th will surely assist them.

If it doesn’t, Port Adelaide may well chew them. The Power are building nicely and entitled to feel good about themselves after finding a way to run down Melbourne at home last Friday night. They are powered by a classy and deep midfield and boast a genuine superstar forward of centre in Robbie Gray, who is enjoying another excellent season and has good memories of taking on the Blues.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 33 points

Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

Was last Thursday night the start of a free-fall or merely a blip. We will find out after this game when West Coast try to pick up the pieces in a winnable, yet testing assignment against Adelaide.

A fortnight ago, this was a match the Eagles would have been expected to win. Injuries then struck, severely impacting their ability to perform to apply sufficient scoreboard pressure to Essendon. Crows fans won’t be offering a great deal of sympathy. Adelaide have been riddled by injuries all year and front up to the Eagles without their most dangerous forward, the hamstrung Eddie Betts.

The venue represents no major issue for West Coast, who may feel their own forward-line problems won’t be an Achilles heel considering how impotent in front of goal the Crows have been in the past two months. That said, this match might well be the last roll of the dice for Adelaide, who have had a chance to freshen up and launch.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 11 points

Gold Coast v Collingwood, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

Collingwood have shown all season that their brand of football stacks up. Gold Coast have not. Forget home-ground advantage, forget about the hamstring injury that rules out Adam Treloar for not only this match, but many more in the weeks to come. Pure and simple, Collingwood are better.

And that stems from personnel, structure and an understanding of the way Nathan Buckley and his coaching staff want them to play. More often than not this season, the Magpies have been awfully difficult to score against. Combine that with proven class of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Brodie Grundy, the X-factor of Jordan De Goey and the emergence of both Mason Cox and Jaidyn Stephenson and it’s not difficult to see why the Magpies are inside the top four.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 31 points

GWS v Hawthorn, Spotless Stadium, 5.25pm

Having worked so hard to re-enter the finals mix, the last thing Greater Western Sydney needed was to lose someone of Jeremy Cameron’s calibre for five weeks. But his strike on Harris Andrews demanded a lengthy suspension and that is exactly what he got.

Coach Leon Cameron now has to work some magic and formulate a functioning forward line, starting in this match against a Hawthorn outfit that has proven especially miserly in wins this month over Port Adelaide, Adelaide and Gold Coast. He will be desperately hoping star on-ballers Stephen Coniglio, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward and Josh Kelly continue to have an influence around the stoppages and overwhelm Tom Mitchell, who shoulders so much responsibility for the Hawks.

Hawthorn have had their issues getting a handle on GWS in the past few seasons and Spotless Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground. But no Rory Lobb leaves Dawson Simpson with the ruck responsibilities against Ben McEvoy, who should be able to influence the result.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 8 points

SUNDAY

Melbourne v St Kilda, MCG, 11.10am

Melbourne came up short against Port Adelaide last Friday night despite dominating in so many key areas. It would take a brave person to suggest they will have the same failings here against a weaker opponent and back at their preferred MCG.

Add to that, the Demons comfortably took care of St Kilda earlier this season when their forward firepower was on song. Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald are two quality key forwards who will shoulder a lot of work over the back half of this season and in years to come and get another opportunity to illustrate their worth opposed to a Saints backline that has been under siege for the most part in 2018.

The Saints chalked up the win they desperately needed before their mid-season bye, but it was against Gold Coast and only came about after a withering final-quarter surge against a team that has major problems in last quarters.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 32 points

Essendon v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 1.20pm

Essendon fans were beside themselves earlier in the season when their side, bulked up by the addition of Jake Stringer, Adam Saad and Devon Smith, struggled to get out of first gear. Last week, all their concerns were brushed aside when the football world witnessed exactly what the Bombers were capable of.

The brilliant opening half against West Coast, thanks in no small part to their recruits, set up a crucial victory and revived their finals hopes. It could be argued that their is one spot up for grabs in the top eight and it is the one North Melbourne, currently eighth, occupy.

The Kangaroos continue to defy the critics and win games, their effort in climbing from the canvas against the Western Bulldogs a significant result. Shaun Higgins is having another excellent season and is a key cog in a versatile and deep midfield that supplies Ben Brown, Mason Wood and Jack Ziebell.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 13 points

Fremantle v Brisbane, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

This was always going to be a difficult assignment for Brisbane … and then came Harris Andrews’ unavailability due to a horrible head injury sustained against Greater Western Sydney last weekend. The impact of the gifted young key defender’s absence cannot be underestimated.

Fremantle displayed great pluck to overcome Adelaide earlier this month and then demolished Carlton before their bye, with the opening half some of the best football they have played this season. Lachie Neale and Nat Fyfe were outstanding and will look to pick up where they left off, while Aaron Sandilands should be refreshed after a light load recently.

The Lions like to take the game on and score and Dockers coach Ross Lyon will look for his leaders to make a statement early, curb the visitors’ ball movement and get the game on their terms. If they do that, it is difficult to see how Brisbane have enough class at either end to cause an upset.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 35 points

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