Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Going with one at odds in this opening race being the Scone trained COMPETITION who was a strong against the tempo winner on his home track two back (1600m), before back to 1500m here a fortnight back running on well from a mile back. Yes, he was beaten over 5 lengths however clocked a solid sectional home & would have been far better placed stepping up in distance not down. He does that today rising to 1800m. BURRANDANA continues to race well however in my mind has to be a risk out to this longer trip. BINKOU is a complete unknown beyond 1400m however he has hit the line very well at that distance range of late.

Numbers: 10 – 9 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: COMPETITION EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 2

Difficult race. I’ll lean to the first up HARD TO SAY who when on song is a very capable galloper, he won fresh at the beginning of his latest prep & his Sunshine Coast win three back when rounding up his rivals in a heartbeat was super impressive. Zac Lloyd being engaged to ride is a strong pointer to his first up chances. SUPER BRIGHT is getting close & maps well. XPRESSO is speedy however the gate is no help, UNDIVIDED has obvious upside.

Numbers: 4 – 14 – 3 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 3

Small field however an interesting line up. I’m with the Waterhouse/Bott trained SO UNITED who put in a cracking run here two weeks ago. Pressured at times he was a sitting shot in the straight however was only collared very late by the winner KIRKEBY who is also engaged in this race. KIRKEBY fares better at the weights however I’ll bank on SO UNITED scoring a better run this time around. No doubt ARISTONIUS is right in the mix, yet to win beyond 2000m however placed at 3550m in hurdle company last run overseas before reaching our shores.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 4

Interesting race, slight doubts in my opinion around some of the well fancied runners. NANA’S WISH may be the safe way out on an each-way basis third up from a break where she should be peaking. She was 1100-1400m last start & wasn’t far away, Zac Lloyd’s claim drops her weight back to 53kg which will be the lowest she’s carried for some time. KANGAROO COURT was strong to the line winning last start, rises 54.5 to 58kg though. TASHI loomed to run into the finish here recently, peaked & now gets to 1400m, not convinced she’ll run it out strongly.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: NANA’S WISH EACH-WAY (small bet)

RACE 5

Going to stick with WAVERIDER BUOY who has come back in top order this prep with a win & two seconds. Beaten by PETULANT (also engaged this race) last start she meets her a kilo better at the weights & if able to secure clear running earlier in the straight or a similar soft run at that last start she arguably wins. Confident McDonald can get her to the outside with an unimpeded run & from there no excuses! PETULANT the obvious danger once again, drawn to again land a soft run. Ditto NO WAY EVER who strips fitter second up.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: WAVERIDER BUOY TO WIN

RACE 6

Last start winner WATEGOS comes out on top here. Yes, he had the weight pull over Brudenell when able to wear that one down last start however he should have further improvement to come going in third-up this afternoon & from the good alley can land a spot up near the lead. KING OF NAPLES finished too well for Plundering last start, that one had a torrid run & arguably should have won however the King still needs to be included. SOAMI is flying in Midway grade, this obviously harder, can’t knock winning form though!

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 7

LEGIO TEN beat all bar the winner at Flemington last start at 1400m & didn’t shirk his task one bit however I do prefer him dropping back to the 1200m today & he’s had a 3 week freshen which certainly won’t harm. He’s a promising type who gets J. Mac to steer. BRUDENELL is a model of consistency with a good record here on the track, form around him of late is good. No knock TIME TO BOOGIE who although not going to get the same soft lead as last start is racing in great form & did score with plenty of authority on that occasion. TRISTATE has the Omni Man form line.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: LEGIO TEN TO WIN

RACE 8

The Group 2 Missile Stakes suggests spring racing is definitely in the air. BIG PARADE hasn’t raced for well over a year, the last time we saw him was back in April 2022 when trained by Mark Newnham who is now training in Hong Kong. He goes around first up for Joe Pride & did win a recent trial by 21 lengths, yes 21 lengths! Gut feel is he’s definitely ready to go fresh. I AM ME has trialled well also & races well fresh, drawn to get a soft run. GOLDEN MILE is the class act, 1200m quite suitable first up however he’ll give the other pair a start.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: BIG PARADE TO WIN (unless a decent market drifter)

RACE 9

Could have gone a few different ways in this race however there’s nothing like winning form & FAWKNER PARK certainly has plenty of that having won all 4 Australian starts lining up for 5 straight this afternoon. Yes, he’s off a freshen up & drops in trip however he tumbles at the weights. BONNY EZRA looks close, her strike rate is nothing to get excited about however third up rising in trip she looks suited on the last start closing effort. MACH SCHNELL continues to race well & is as tough as old boots, never an easy one to get past.

Numbers: 11 – 5 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet: FAWKNER PARK TO WIN (looking for around $3.00)

RACE 10

I’d say this is the last chance I’ll give GRACILISTYLA & I won’t be on my own! He’s either running on late or held-up in his races with the ‘flashing lights’ all over him for next time. Well, this is not only next time, it’s the last time. Drawn a wide gate surely the one thing he won’t be is held up! TAJNEED could be the big improver, won a maiden then placed next start at Group 2 level, done nothing in three outings since however this isn’t strong. AMOR VICTORIOUS down in the weights drawn softly must be included.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 14 – 8

Suggested Bet: GRACILISTYLA TO WIN

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