Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Rosehill on an improving surface with no less than 11 events kicking off very early. We bounce the ball with a Midway where I thought there was value around the resuming FLYING TRAPEZE who has decent form in much better races last prep highlighted by his placing in the Magic Millions 3yo Guineas. Two trials winning the latest suggest he should be fit enough to figure in the finish. CRUEL SUMMER continues to race consistently & the claim is a big plus, this is no harder than recent efforts. NAVY BLOOD can improve.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: FLING TRAPEZE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 2

ASSOCIATE looks tough to beat here going on his fast-finishing effort a fortnight back. He rises in weight however some of that has been offset with the apprentice’s claim & hopefully the decent alley can be made good use of by settling closer than has been the case of late. There’s not many horses who have as much bad luck in their races as AGIRLSBESTFRIEND, she’s second up today & may need one more however I’m not leaving out. CRANKY HARRY was stiff not to win at Doomben last start, big weight & wide gate will test however he’s a consistent type.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet:  Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

She’s not a favourite of mine BONNY EZRA however I did think she looked over the odds here. She drops back plenty in class having tackled Group 3 company her last couple & with the claim gets in quite well with 57.5kg. GAN TEORAINN kept finding the line well behind the hard to catch Sir Lucan here last start whilst the consistent NAVAL COMMISSION is looking to make it 4 straight wins, gate 1 no weight & Zac Lloyd to steer suggest it’s far from an impossible task.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet:  BONNY EZRA EACH WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

Have to be with the well fancied AMBERITE who has had the two runs since coming across the ditch for an upset Flemington win & a close up Caulfield second placing. Freshened up & back to 1800m shouldn’t pose any concerns, has consistency on these. Wouldn’t be surprised to see CAPRICE DES DIEUX improve sharply, down plenty in class today. NANA’S WISH in the mix however the 1800m will test.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 11 – 12

Suggested Bet:  AMBERITE TO WIN.

RACE 5

Confident this race rests between the well fancied pair ABERLOUR & HA HA HA with a leaning to the latter as she’s had the one run back whilst the former resumes from a break not having started since mid-February back home in New Zealand. HA HA HA led & gave plenty at her Australian debut & the drop back in trip won’t harm. Nothing wrong with ABERLOUR’s overall form having won 3 of her 6 attempts, should she be solid in the market is a definite winning chance. AFRICAN DAISY is rarely far away & can fill a placing.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Boxing up top 2 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Tricky race where I kept coming back to the consistent IN FLIGHT who has 2on 2 of her 3 starts this prep & draws a cosy gate. Only lightly raced she has plenty of upside & can build on her good record here. BOSTON ROCKS resumes & is very effective fresh, needs dry ground though. JAMBALAYA is racing very well however will have to overcome a wide gate.

Numbers: 10 – 3 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

WATERFORD looks very well placed on paper in this race, everything looks ideal bar the 2000m trip which is a complete unknown. The way he finished his race off at Scone two back though you’d have to suggest he’s a good chance to run it out solidly. South Australian visitor DANISH FORTUNE was terrific at Randwick in the mud, the wetter the better for him. GOLDEN PATH drops in the weights off a strong finishing win the latest whilst BOLD MAC is always a chance in these races.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet: WATERFORD TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 8

Victorian visitor ELOUYOU draws the inside gate which if not the wrong place to be suggests he’ll prove the horse to beat. Lightly raced with a terrific record he’s busting to win & the drying track works in his favour. PURE ALPHA is also lightly raced, has a victory over the smart Franz Joseph to his credit, plenty of upside. Much interest around the import KING OF FLORIDA who cost over $600K, form in the UK is sound, may need the run here, betting?

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

No shortage of acceptors here! I’MINTOWIN has the Franz Josef form line which we know is a strong one. He carried plenty of weight first up dropping 2.5kg into this race with a solid second-up record. TESTATOR SILENS improved sharply second up, also down in weight (4.5kg) & Rawiller jumps on board, definite chance. No favours with the barrier draw for AKASAWA however he’s in form & is yet another dropping in weight, he carried a whopping 65.5kg last start & was motoring home on the line.

Numbers: 12 – 15 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: I’MINTOWIN TO WIN!

RACE 10

Well I’ve waffled on about FRANZ JOSEF’s form line being one of the best around at present & here’s the horse himself going around in this race. Wide gate & all I’m still firmly in his corner as he’s a very promising type who can overcome a possible wide trip (cover would help). KAPAKIRI resumed with a good 3rd & will only improve with the run under his belt. Just for something new we have a couple of imports in DON DIEGO DE VEGA & BEAR ON THE LOOSE, both from strong yards well worth of respect, market moves the best guide.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: FRANZ JOSEF TO WIN.

RACE 11

We wind up the marathon card with another likely full field. Going with value putting KING OF NAPLES on top who goes around second run back from a break. Didn’t have the clearest of runs when resuming at Scone & drops a little in weight here from a good draw. KAZOU accepted both here & at Eagle Farm, connections have decided on this option, good fresh horse who can run well with luck from a wide alley. BOJANGLES freshened up & back in trip not out of it.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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