Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Final day of the Sydney Autumn Carnival takes place at Randwick on Saturday under sunny skies on a good rated surface. Couple of Group 1’s later in the day to look forward to however it’s great to see the Midway/Highway races back after a very short break, too short… (4) AUDREY’S LANE clocked in 3rd behind (8) ANNIE’S ROSE at Rosehill 3 weeks ago at this level, if not for a chequered path in the straight the margin of 1.26L would have been less & with a 2kg weight shift favouring her today she can turn the tables. (3) MAILATA gets J. Mac plus a good draw, the big weight just concerns me.  Certainly (8) ANNIE’S ROSE a chance once again whilst (10) DANISH PRINCE is in the place mix.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Wide open Highway, over $6.00 the field in early markets tells us that. (13) ANDALE ANDALE is a 1400m risk however drawn so well is likely to gain the run of the race & every chance. His country form stacks up ok, just that last 50m or so might see us on the edge of our seats. (3) OCCULTS is in fine form having won three on the trot which includes a solid first up win, rises in weight however has consistency on many of these. (11) RED RAGS TO BULLS will find this more to his liking than last start however the wide draw doesn’t help, will they be able to run on today with the wide rail?

Numbers: 13 – 3 – 11 – 12

Suggested Bet: Go as wide as you possibly can with exotics.

RACE 3

Yet another very open race. I’ve ended up siding with (15) GRAND PRARIE who will race on speed from the good gate & drops a ton in weight off a couple of placings in easier grade this prep. She’s going to get the right run & is worth a spec each-way. Clear danger looks to be (2) SIGNOR TORTONI who is coming back from Group 3 company his past couple, he did place last start at that level however has to lump a lot more weight this afternoon, 8kg more to be precise! (11) ESTREMO may need the run however is more than capable, market?

Numbers: 15 – 2 – 11 – 16

Suggested Bet: GRAND PRARIE EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 4

The unbeaten (1) PLAINTIFF will go around close to ‘red figures’ in this race & on what she’s shown to date taking on this calibre of opposition, that looks fair to me. Drawn 17 of 17 first up at Randwick she parked last before unleashing a big run to round up her rivals, can’t see the 1400m being of any concern & she just looks better than these. (4) TOMATO TOASTIE (surely the best named horse in the country) clocked in third behind her on that occasion after sitting deep throughout, looms as the main danger should there be one. (3) KARINSKA has ability on her day however she just mixes her form too much for my liking & her strike rate isn’t one to get excited about.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: PLAINTIFF TO WIN ($2 or better).

RACE 5

The Group 3 Frank Packer Plate is for the 3yo’s where some are going to the 2000m for the first time. I’m with one in that category being (4) OLYMPIAN who closed off strongly in the Carbine Club over 1600m here 2 weeks ago, only lightly raced he shows good ability & is certainly bred to get the 2000m. (1) MATIAS comes out of the same race, drops 1.5kg & draws a perfect gate, I’m sure he won’t be giving as big a start & note did win the 1800m Grand Prix at Eagle Farm in dominant fashion late last year charging clear of his rivals. Not sure about (2) PROVIDENCE, last couple ordinary however when stepping up to this distance & beyond in the Melbourne spring last year ran well.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: OLYMPIAN EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Now here is a tough assignment. (5) TRAVOLTA has been posted the early favourite & although I’m not suggesting he can’t win I’d say the J. Mac influence is a major factor as he’s back from 2400 & 2600m his past couple of runs with only 14 days to freshen up. Unable to split the locals I’m going with the visiting Kiwi mare (4) SHE’S A DEALER who is racing in great form back home & gives every indication she’s now looking for 2000m. The 3-week gap between runs & wide gate are not ideal however at the price we can safely back her each-way. (17) POLYMNIA is certainly going to need luck from her draw or give a big start, she’s just so lightly weighted though I want her in my exotics.

Numbers: 4 – 17 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: SHE’S A DEALER EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 7

First of the ‘majors’ this afternoon is the Champagne Stakes for the 2yo’s stepping up to a mile. (1) CAMPIONE D’ITALIA was a real eye-catcher in the Golden Slipper charging home from last to 4th. Sent out much shorter odds in the 1400m Sires 2 weeks later I liked the dash he showed near the 300m when asked to go putting the race away. Although (10) MISS CHANEL closed that margin I don’t see her turning the tables here as he’s likely more explosive on drier ground, doubt the additional 200m will concern either of them. (12) SALAAN interests me, very good running on in Melbourne over 1200m on debut then straight to 1600m here last week again making up many lengths, I’d definitely include.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 12 – 4

Suggested Bet: CAMPIONE D’ITALIA TO WIN.

RACE 8

Interesting Group 3 Hall Mark, not the strongest of sprints however we do get to see the WA sprinting star (3) JOKERS GRIN who will be lining up for his first outing with the Chris Waller yard & no surprise to see J. Mac in the saddle. There’s no knocking his form over in the west & he’s only suffered defeat once in 4 fresh attempts however the downside is he will give a decent start which may work against him today with the rail out. For that reason I’m leaning to the super honest & very good fresh performer (1) PRIVATE EYE who may be close enough to his peak to land the major prize. (4) MAZU is going for a trio of wins in this race having been victorious the past couple, he’s capable on dry ground however his record will tell you he’s better placed on soft/heavy.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 9

Cracking Group 1 All Aged Stakes, plenty of our best sprinters to go around here. (1) GIGA KICK really caught my eye second up in the 1000m Challenge here motoring home, he then went to the T. J. when I was certain he had the star mare Joliestar covered inside the 200m however she just kicked on too well. Now he gets to 1400m which looks very suitable suggesting we can back him confidently each-way. (8) ANGEL CAPITAL is honest without winning, he seems to find a lot of bad luck in his races, the day he doesn’t he’ll win & that could well be here. Cannot leave (11) FANGIRL out although she will find this trip short of her very best.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: GIGA KICK EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

This is a tough way to wind up the big day. I’ve gone with (2) ZAMBARDO however I will be guided by both the market leads as he’s first up & the days pattern as he has drawn wide. We last saw him in the Group 2 Mackinnon on final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival when running second to Via Sistina! He won his maiden 4 starts prior & was unbeaten 3 subsequent runs until meeting the great mare. (6) LORD PENMAN is consistent; he always gives 100% & will do so again here however a wet track would have aided his chances & that’s not happening. (18) CAPTAIN FURAI in the mix should he gain a start.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 18 – 9

Suggested Bet: Follow any market support for ZAMBARDO (EACH-WAY).

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