Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Another Saturday in Sydney, another bog tracks awaits! Well maybe as there’s been that much rain around this week we might be lucky to even run, whatever the case it won’t be pretty with the form meaning little, we need to find the ‘swimmers’. (5) SIGNOR TORTONI gets the nod in the opener as he’s proven himself to be very capable on wet ground & is fully fit lining up for start number five this time in. The 100m drop back in distance won’t harm his chances & note both career wins have come at 1200m. (11) CRYPTONIC placed both outings on heavy ground including the first-up latest. (2) SO GOOD SO COOL can run a race fresh.

Numbers: 5 – 11 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

This week’s Highway looks an absolute raffle. (1) REBEL DEAN has a wide gate & plenty of weight which isn’t ideal, however he also has stronger form lines & good wet track stats, I’ll stick with him at the big odds. (2) EXIT FEE didn’t have a lot go his way first up, excuses second-up, chance if handles the ground. (16) XANADU MISS not the roughest.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 16 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Can’t tip against (1) JUJA KIBO who really warmed up & found the line at Rosehill when stepping up to 2000m for the first time 3 weeks ago on a heavy (10), only lightly raced he’s got plenty of upside & the rise to 2400m looks ideal. Victorian visitor (5) BLUESTONE is a model of consistency having missed a placing only once at his 9 outings which includes 3 wins. (2) KNIGHTS ARMOUR dropped back in distance last start which didn’t suit, prior form well up to this & gets through the ground well.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet: JUJA KIBO TO WIN.

RACE 4

(2) KERGUELEN is the best wet tracker in the race & is extremely well suited here at his first outing for the Joe Pride stable. Not raced for 5 weeks he was sent around in a trial on Monday which would have aided his fitness levels. (9) BOLTSAVER is here purely for the heavy track being shipped up from Victoria, doesn’t mean he’ll win however I’d expect him to figure in the placings. The consistent (6) IRON MAN comes into this off a freshen up, his form is good enough however I will be looking for any market support.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: KERGUELEN TO WIN.

RACE 5

The Premier’s Cup is far from a strong Group 3 suggesting last start Listed winner (2) SALTCOATS can again land the money. He’s always given the impression he’s better than the average stayer & this could be the prep he lives up to some of that promise. The ground is certainly no issue & he races well here at Randwick. I’d expect a significant improvement from (6) BELVEDERE BOYS who finished well out of the money at Grafton, his prior outing second was a particularly good run & his overall strike rate is impressive, no concerns on wet ground either. (10) GOOD BANTER is a swimmer, his record tells you that, must include.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet: SALTCOATS TO WIN.

RACE 6

The Group 2 Silver Shadow sees the return of some quality fillies, who will handle the ground best? We saw Skyhook prove too classy last week in the Rosebud & he’d never even seen wet ground, will it matter? (3) SAVVY HALLIE & (4) AGARWOOD are the two for me, both have won on heavy ground & although the former has the race fitness under her belt bolting in first up there’s no way the yet to be beaten Waterhouse/Bott trained AGARWOOD won’t be ready to go having won both lead-up trials. Let’s just back both! (1) WITHIN THE LAW & (2) MEMO definite first up chances.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: SAVVY HALLIE & AGARWOOD TO WIN.

RACE 7

Looking forward to seeing the resuming & unbeaten (4) AUTUMN GLOW who scored nicely on debut (soft 6) before winning her next three (all Group & Listed) on dry ground. She’s very promising with any amount of upside & her recent heavy track trial suggested she’s a good chance to handle it. (3) MANAAL is good fresh, better second-up however has wet track form, (2) AMEENA is a gun fresh however no wet track form apart from a soft (7) unplaced effort where there were excuses. (12) GANGSTA GRANNY the other main hope, trialled well which is a good sign from this yard.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

The first Group 1 of the new season The Winx Stakes will be run on a very wet track which is unfortunate, how many of the stars including Via Sistina will end up taking part? I have absolutely no knock on (9) VIA SISTINA or (10) FANGIRL, how could anyone, the problem is the heavy ground, neither have shown any liking for it. I’m a huge wrap for (12) AELIANA who is 2 from 2 on soft seen nothing worse, untested both trials her aims are further/later, how forward is she at this stage? (3) GRINGOTTS ticks the first up box & has trialled well, yet to race on a heavy track however has won 3 of 4 on soft (worst soft 7), I’ll lean his way for tipping’s sake only.

Numbers: 3 – 12 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics, market?

RACE 9

(1) YELLOW BRICK & (5) GENERAL SALUTE the two for me here & I will likely end up backing both as I don’t see a lot between the pair. The former will race up nearer the lead, whether or not that’s an advantage remains to be seen, his heavy track record is a good one whereas (5) GENERAL SALUTE is yet to race on anything worse than soft, gut feel is it won’t be an issue. (6) CORNICHE likes it wet, (11) ESPIONAGE a market watch.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: YELLOW BRICK & GENERAL SALUTE TO WIN.

RACE 10

Final race of the day where we quickly drop back to Benchmark level. Difficult looking affair where I’ll lean to the lightly raced & in-form (13) SEVEN’S who landed the money first up in midweek grade on a heavy (8) track. (12) MORNINGTON PIER is another in form with positive wet track stats, (6) ROGUE ROCKER comes up from Melbourne & draws a good gate. Suggest go as wide as possible here.

Numbers: 13 – 12 – 7 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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