Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

More Group 1 racing at Randwick on Saturday where the track is likely to be soft bordering on good, certainly drying conditions both Friday & Saturday. We get underway with a Midway, yep Midway’s & Highways are back! I’ll lean to the fully fit (10) GLOUNTHAUNE who will be having his fourth run back from a break & steps up to a distance he has had success over in the past. His record here at the track isn’t great however let’s give him another chance without getting carried away. Wouldn’t be the least surprised to see (2) FORECASTER run a race fresh whilst (3) TENDERIZE can’t be left out, he’s won 3 of his past 4 with the only defeat coming off a quicker back-up than usual.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 3 – 12

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics (low confidence).

RACE 2

To the Highway! The consistent (1) VILLASAURUS has a poor draw however there’s no shortage of emergencies, he’s going to benefit a little from scratchings however will still need luck on his side. A win & placing at this level his only 2 starts last prep his first up run was a solid one & he’s been kept nice & fresh for this. (9) WIN THE DAY was very impressive last start albeit on a heavy track, she’s lightly raced with upside though so certainly worth including. (8) URAFIKI in the mix also.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

The Frank Packer Plate sees the super consistent (1) SWIFT FALCON back to 2000m once again which ‘should’ suit, not keen on taking short odds though. (3) PLYMOUTH was good in the Rosehill Guineas before an even effort in the Derby behind the dominant Aeliana. May appreciate the drop back in trip, I’ll lean his way on an each-way basis. (2) FIRM AGREEMENT ran 2nd to Aeliana, luckless the run prior, major threat. If there’s a surprise I wouldn’t be shocked should (10) MISS ALEXIS provide it, lightly raced in good hands nothing wrong with her effort in the Adrian Knox.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Sticking solid with (1) CLEAN ENERGY who although missed a placing last start, she just didn’t settle after being restrained early on & getting her head up, she never really travelled yet was still there at the end. 1400m is new for her however if she’s as good as I’m hoping she is she’ll handle the rise & get back into winning form. I’m convinced (2) ZEITUNG is very close to a win, she may head interstate post this race & get the result away from home, don’t leave out though. (6) CHURCHILL’S CHOICE a big market watch, undefeated 3 from 3 now takes on Group company first up.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet: CLEAN ENERGY TO WIN.

RACE 5

(9) COUNTYOURBLESSINGS resumes & returns to Benchmark grade after a couple of cracks at stronger races in Queensland over the summer. She wasn’t far away the first of those before having a torrid wide run the other, both respectable efforts. She’s trialled well, & holds a good fresh record, the inside gate likely doesn’t help however at the odds on offer I’ll take the punt Kerrin McEvoy can find the gaps. (8) NEED SOME LUCK resumes, only lightly raced in good hands & has trialled well. (10) DARK GLITTER has raced well all prep & recently in stronger grade, been up a long time however if still going ok will figure in this finish.

Numbers: 9 – 8 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: COUNTYOURBLESSINGS EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

In my opinion this race all boils down to whether or not (3) ENCAP runs out the 2000m strongly. He’s been to 1600m on four occasions & been amongst the quickest final 200m splits each time, he absolutely motored late in the Doncaster with the light weight missing out by a very small margin. He just gives every indication further will suit & I’m with him. (6) NEW ENDEAVOUR & (7) HEZASHOCKA need it damp, will it be damp enough? I doubt it. (12) SCARLET OAK, she been a rank disappointment & needs to improve plenty. Honestly, I don’t see a lot of opposition to the top tip here.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet: ENCAP TO WIN.

RACE 7

The Champagne for the 2yo’s is the first of the days Group 1’s. (3) BUFFALO has been strong to the line all 4 starts this prep, none so more than his latest in the 1400m Sires Produce when really motoring the last 100m to go down by a narrow margin. The mile here just looks ready-made & at the odds on offer he can be confidently supported on an each-way basis. The form lines around (2) NEPOTISM are strong through Savvy Hallie, another who shapes as though the mile will suit. (7) WITHIN THE LAW is always running on, gets an additional 400m here, too much?

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: BUFFALO EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The Group 1 All Aged is an absolute cracker of a contest, highly competitive. He’s not a horse I think I’ve ever tipped before (4) JIMMYSSTAR however this sets up very well for him. He’s always strong to the line & for the first time this prep gets out to 1400m which is going to suit. (2) BRIASA box seats once again, record speaks for itself & still with so much upside. (1) ANTINO has a terrific fresh record, who can forget that Toorak win, he’ll be storming home at the end of this. (14) BROADSIDING is a star, multiple Group 1 winner who maps just perfectly for J. Mac to give him the gun run, decent drop back in distance though (600m).

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 14

Suggested Bet: JIMMYSSTAR EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

The Group 3 Hall Mark has fallen away with unfortunately. (9) GENERAL SALUTE has come back in great form this prep winning both starts, the latest at Rosehill over this 1200m trip he powered home to arrive late. Gets back up in the weights here however he’s the horse in the race racing in the best form. (12) DRAGONSTONE the horse he defeated last time out meets him far better at the weights (5kg) for the narrow defeat, definite chance to turn the tables. (1) JEDIBEEL drops back in grade & by a fair margin, must include.

Numbers: 9 – 12 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up first 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

We wind up the day & unfortunately the carnival with a Benchmark 100 which is a quality affair. I’m going with the first up (3) MIGHTY ULYSSES who can pull out a run fresh & I didn’t mind his latest trial when going to the line with what looked like plenty in the tank. He’s acquitted himself in better races than this. (1) WELWAL has a good fresh record, will need give in the ground, should he get that he does appear ‘overs’. (6) PUNCH LANE could be an improver, his best is very competitive at this level however he’s extremely hard to catch.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet: MIGHTY ULYSSES EACH-WAY.

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