Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Everest Day is upon us, rain around on Friday just how much though? Keep a close eye on the skies, hugely important to many chances particularly in the big race. Happy to give ATHABASCAN another chance in this opening race, good fresh, excuses second up & I just thought he was ridden to close in the Metrop, this is a great deal easier & the step up in distance is a plus. ETNA ROSSO had been racing well & certainly wasn’t disgraced in the Metrop either, can bounce back here & any rain about won’t harm his chances. WYCLIF & WALTHAM in the mix.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 7 – 8

Suggested Bet: ATHABASCAN TO WIN.

RACE 2

Tough race, wouldn’t be taking any short odds about any runner. Although BERKSHIRE SHADOW, CHORLTON LANE & DUCASSE look the obvious main players I can find negatives for all three, not saying they can’t win, I just have nagging doubts. TOO MUCH CAVIAR is going to roll along on pace & can give a kick in the straight aided by a big drop in weight, he’s been lumping around or more than 60kg of late, down to 52kg today. Just might take some catching!

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: TOO MUCH CAVIAR EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

Group 3 for the fillies, this race really does have me stumped. One of these is going to take a leap in form, just which one that will be is the million-dollar question. ISLAND DEC & JELLICIOUS look good types however they rise 400 & 300m in distance. DOMINETTA will go forward, led first up when looked like being run over however responded & came away, has to cope with 200m further however I can’t question that coming from this yard. WINGS OF DESIRE wasn’t far away in Group 2 company the latest, back to 1400m more suitable.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 in exotics.

RACE 4

HINGED will likely start favourite, she’s got all the right form lines however hasn’t won for almost 1000 days or in real terms 25 starts since victorious in the Surround Stakes as a 3yo filly back in February 2022. As well as she is placed here, I just can’t have her on top. Happy to have something each-way QUICKSTER who will take benefit off the first up run down south, she made ground on the leading runners in a sprint home & although she’d had enough on the line will appreciate getting out over further & she draws well for Jamie Kah. CHICA MOJITO & LEKVARTE in the mix.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

The 2-million-dollar Kosciuszko sees FRONT PAGE line up for his third straight victory in the race & on form it’s going to take a good one to deny him. He won the race first up two preps back & last campaign resumed with a 3rd in the Group 1 Galaxy giving a great sight in front, surely he’s the runner to beat once again. BOOM TORQUE gets his chance from the decent alley, could work against him on paper however Nash is too smart to let that happen, he’s been back to the trials since running a good 3rd in the Theo Marks. FAR TOO EASY in the mix, placed both previous attempts in the race.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: FRONT PAGE TO WIN.

RACE 6

Looking for more speed than is likely on paper as I’m going with KING OF SPARTA who yes will give a decent start from the wide draw. He’s such an effective galloper fresh though & he’s been looking the goods at his trials, J. Mac to steer is a good positive pointer to his chances. If you like Growing Empire in The Everest then you have to be with SOUTHPORT TYCOON here, my gut feel is he might just be looking for further now? OVERPASS will give a sight, that last 100m or so may just find him out. AIRMAN & MAZU in the mix.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

The big one, the 20-million-dollar Everest & what an open race it is this year. The expected rain on Friday is a huge factor, should we get a decent amount it’s going to put an end to some of the major hopes, increase the chances of others & affect the way the track will play. I WISH I WIN & BELLA NIPOTINA are must includes, the former was narrowly beaten in the race last year & is likely better placed drawing a wider gate. BELLA draws very awkwardly & will have to go back, should the rain come, it will enhance her chances as the track will play better wider out in the straight. GROWING EMPIRE is the pick of the 3yo’s in my opinion whilst the mares SUNSHINE IN PARIS & JOLIESTAR have a hoodoo to break (16 mares have run in the race, none have placed) however are smart enough to do so, the former is better suited on dry ground. Could have easily missed the winner!

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 9 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet: box up top 5 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Terrific line up in the Silver Eagle & the market reflects the competitiveness. Happy to back KIMOCHI on an each-way basis off her strong effort in the Group 1 Manikato at Moonee Valley behind some major Everest contenders when sitting deep. She was good winning first up again sitting deep & has a good record here on the track. PORT LOCKROY flashed home first up in the race won by the in-form OSTRAKA, they meet again here with the former drawing by far the better gate. Definite respect for the Victorian visitor WAR MACHINE who may well end up being better than the lot of these.

Numbers: 11 – 8 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: KIMOCHI EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

The big money races don’t stop with 5 million up for grabs in the Group 1 King Charles. PRIDE OF JENNI returns to the scene of her Queen Elizabeth romp in the autumn (albeit 400m shorter) which really put her on the map. Will she get out with such a big lead this time around, I’d say not however she’s come along nicely this prep winning the Feehan third-up, I can’t tip against her here. Should the track be no worse than soft then FANGIRL is clearly the main danger, she beat inferior opposition last start however we know how good she is & J. Mac is supremely confident of turning over the Victorian mare. I’ll include CEOLWULF however suspect he needs further now?

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 6 – 12

Suggested Bet: PRIDE OF JENNI TO WIN.

RACE 10

I’d like to be in front coming into this last race which looks an absolute raffle! Should FRANZ JOSEF gain a start I’ll have something each-way as he does look a promising type with plenty of upside, add to that a good fresh record. SECRET PLAN is big odds & has been doing his recent racing up north where he’s been close without luck, one to include in exotics. IRON MAN & WILLAIDOW ran the quinella at their last start, suspect they can figure once again.

Numbers: 20 – 9 – 6 – 19

Suggested Bet: FRANZ JOSEF EACH-WAY

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