Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on April 11, 2024April 11, 2024 | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Second day of ‘The Championships’ promises to be a cracker! The 2yo’s get us under way over a mile & there’s no standouts on form. MISS BUSLINGER & BROADSIDING come through stronger races though having both gone around in the Baillieu last start with an eyelash between them on the line. The latter sat 3 deep throughout & although again worse at the barriers today does get J. Mac to steer, if anyone is going to work some early magic, it’s him. Certainly no knock MISS BUSLINGER, she does look the danger. RASP could be an improver out to the longer trip.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet: BROADSIDING TO WIN (small bet).

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RACE 2

Found this near impossible, just can’t find anything I’m sold on. I’ll lean to MIDNIGHT OPAL whose last couple suggest he may now be looking for 1400m which is a trip he’s yet to race over. Drawn ok & with only a light weight he’ll get every possible chance to run it out strongly. ROBRICK gave away too much start at Rosehill, solid to the line & has won out to this trip, placed over further, wide gate suggests he’ll again have plenty of ground to make up. The chances certainly don’t end there!

Numbers: 11 – 4 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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RACE 3

We saw an upset result in last week’s Country Championships Final, don’t be the least surprised to see something similar here in the Provincial version with so many different form lines clashing. I’ve settled on STRAIT ACER & WILLING FREEFALL & with the latter likely to be in front of STRAIT ACER in the run I’m going to lean his way. Should have won at Newcastle when just held up for too long, motored once into the clear to just miss. STRAIT ACER has form in better races (placed Group 1 last prep), hard to knock. TAVI TIME didn’t fire at Rosehill, freshen up likely suits.

Numbers: 14 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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RACE 4

Terrific to see the Golden Slipper winner LADY OF CAMELOT backing up, she’s been done no favours at the gates drawing 13 before scratchings, has to lump the big weight as well (59kg). I’m in no way doubting her ability however she’s had her Grand Final plus a tough Blue Diamond run, not sure I’d be lining up to take the short price. FLY FLY is far better odds & has been kept fresh for this, good against the tempo last time & two prior runs both solid behind smart types. AMEENA draws well, nothing wrong with her form & she’s the one likely to gain the cosy run.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet: FLY FLY EACH-WAY.

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RACE 5

Banking on OZZMOSIS to bounce back here after making a complete mess of the start when resuming in the Galaxy last month. His 3yo form last prep was first rate winning the Group 1 Coolmore down the Flemington straight at his final run before spelling. He’d trialled well prior to the last start disaster & has been back to the trials since with no such issues. Like the look of SCHWARZ who will take plenty of benefit from the first up run, impressed with the way he toughed it out right to the line. Group 1 winning filly JOLIESTAR can run a race fresh.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet: OZZMOSIS TO WIN.

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RACE 6

Highly rated Kiwi filly ORCHESTRAL had to pull out all stops to win the Group 1 Vinery at her fist Australian start making it 5 on the trot & her second win at the highest level. Proven at 2400m winning the Derby at her prior start it’s hard to see her being beaten. ZARDOZI showed an electric turn of foot to win the VRC Oaks in the spring, beaten on merits by Orchestral last start however definitely in the mix once again. QUINTESSA, AUTUMN ANGEL next best.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: ORCHESTRAL too short to back straight out, take exacta 1-3.

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RACE 7

Group 1 Sydney Cup over the two-mile trip, always a great sight. I’ve mentioned before the lack of decent local stayers going around in these races, there’s a few here who go ok however any overseas raider worth their salt would lap most of ours, particularly over this distance. CIRCLE OF FIRE showed that last week with a strong finishing win in the Chairmans which is an ideal lead up. Suggest he’s hit his straps at the right time & can go right on with it here. MAHRAJAAN is a two-mile specialist, unbeaten both attempts across the ditch. ATHABASCAN best of the locals, liked what he did in the Tancred.

Numbers: 12 – 2 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: CIRCLE OF FIRE EACH-WAY.

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RACE 8

Big money up for grabs in the Queen Elizabeth which looks an intriguing race. I’m sticking solid with VIA SISTINA who was so impressive winning the Ranvet 3 weeks ago. J. Mac knew exactly what he had underneath him that day, he was very content to sit last in a race which was run at walking speed, once he brought her to the outside & asked for an effort she quickly had them covered. She’s in a different class to these. CASCADIAN is flying this prep, going as well as ever, loves this track & trip can run into a placing once again. PRIDE OF JENNI will do her very best to break the field up, that’s what she does & doesn’t she do it well.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: VIA SISTINA TO WIN.

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RACE 9

It’s the girls turn for a crack at the Group 1’s in the always competitive Queen Of The Turf. I’m with ATISHU who will have to handle the drop back 400m off only a two-week gap between runs. I’m sure Chris Waller will have that under control & that being the case she’s the one to beat having scored in the race last year & bringing stronger form lines not just against her own sex. Stablemates OLENTIA & ZOUGOTCHA are racing well & appear the main dangers, no doubt TROPICAL SQUALL will give a sight from the front.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 2 – 14

Suggested Bet: ATISHU TO WIN.

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RACE 10

Although drawn wide the speed maps suggest the in-form RED CARD won’t have any issue crossing as there’s no early competition likely, well on paper anyway! Even taking that into account she’s not as well suited out to 1200m & we’ve got a longer run home here than at Rosehill, could well be vulnerable late. I’m with the very consistent TASHI who closed on Chain Of Lighting last start, that one has since won the Group 1 T.J & 4^th/5^th out of the race have also subsequently won, handy form line! WEE NESSY ran 3^rd, suggest she has to be included as well. RAINBIEL in the place mix.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 3 – 10

Suggested Bet: TASHI TO WIN.

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