Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday if we take the weather forecast into account will likely be run on a very wet surface. Friday through Saturday the estimation is somewhere between 40 – 150mm, who knows? The former would be fine, the latter not so. The youngsters get the meeting underway, I’ll lean to one of the raced brigade (there’s only 2) being (1) SWIFT DRAGON who has won 2 trials & a race, in a betting stable, monitor market moves very closely. (8) PEMBREY has trialled well whilst (3) OREGON COAST comes out of a much stronger race on debut (Group 3 Widden).

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet: Market moves the key.

RACE 2

(8) LARADO is only lightly raced with plenty of upside. Parked behind the lead last start which seems to be the way to ride him he ambled up in the straight proving too solid for the leader in the run to the post. Suggest he can continue upon his winning way here. (6) ROYAL COMMODORE straight to the front kept going strongly at Grafton first up & is in good hands. (3) PORT ERIN has a short sharp sprint, if close enough he can reel them in whilst I’d include (7) MOONHAVEN who importantly does have a heavy track win to his credit.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet: LARADO TO WIN.

RACE 3

Last start winners (1) LIVEALITTLE & (2) DIAMOND EPIC couldn’t have been any more impressive in their respective victories. The former bolted away with a midweeker to score by over 6 lengths whilst the latter came from well off speed in a race not run to suit to overhaul & then race clear of the leader. I can’t tip both so it’s (2) DIAMOND EPIC going on top. (3) REZONE the other main hope, 3 from 3 since coming north the 3kg claim certainly a big help.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet: DIAMOND EPIC TO WIN.

RACE 4

Tony Gollan’s (12) SAVAGERY VIBE should be ready to fire third run for the yard since coming up from Victoria. Both effort this time in have been placings & I like him stepping up to 1200m. (7) DREAM LANTERN was responsible for a huge run last start, found trouble before zooming home, similar the start prior. Gate not ideal though & won’t want the heavens to open. (4) BLUE SPINEL always in the mix, she’s not at her very best though these days.

Numbers: 12 – 7 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

As I type (9) SUNRAYS is in this field & down to run at Randwick also, no jockey here suggests down south may be the favoured option? (9) SHADWELL LANE looks well placed stepping back up to 1200m, her only career win was over the same trip & 2 of her 3 outings this prep suggests she’s now chasing it, forgive the run two back. (1) SUNRAYS obviously goes in should she run here whist (3) DRAGONNE ROUGE an interesting runner, drops way back in class & all 3 wins on soft ground yet to see anything worse.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: SHADWELL LANE EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Ballina trained (1) GIAPPONESE was a long odds winner here a fortnight back knocking punters out of not only Quaddies, but a whole lot more. He brought narrow fast finishing Ballina form to town & ridden a treat by an in-form Jai Williams took all the shortcuts for home & finished far too well. I don’t consider it a fluke; I liked what I saw of him racing clear late & the rise in trip should only suit. (10) PARADISE AS USUAL comes out of the same race, gets back & runs on that’s his pattern, worth including. (4) TACITLY will find this tougher than last start however is very lightly raced with plenty of upside & the win was dominant.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: GIAPPONESE EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

I’m tipping (12) SUPER DUCK to beat (1) GREEN FLY however they would definitely not be my choices should we race on a dry track. Both get through the ground very well & with only 52kg on his back the former should prove very hard to catch as he is an absolute duck in these conditions. (1) GREEN FLY brings the much stronger form line through the Listed Carrington at Randwick first up, also wetter the better. (7) FREE CARRY resumes, seems to race best when fresh these days & will also race up on speed. (4) JOHN RAMBO 1600m?

Numbers: 12 – 1 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet: Monitor weather conditions.

RACE 8

(6) NAILS MURPHY is racing in very good form of late & does appear well enough placed here to make it 3 straight wins. He led & won well two back before off speed & finishing hard the latest suggesting he is a very versatile type. Won on soft, placed on heavy a big plus in the likely conditions. (8) JUST FLYING handles the ground & will roll forward, well supported last start suggest he may be further forward this prep than prior campaigns? (5) DEMON DARB hasn’t fired this prep however he can improve sharply on wet ground.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Consistent sprinter (1) STEADY READY gets the nod here. Two runs back from a break have seen him out of the placings however they have been in much stronger races than this one. He gets in well with Chloe Baker’s claim & will settle on speed, wet ground no issue. (3) VODKA MARTINI couldn’t match (7) TIGER TIE last start & they meet once again here, there’s a slight weight swing in VM’s favour however I’m not convinced that’s enough to turn the tables. BIG weight drop for (8) POWER OF THE BRAVE suggests he’s right in this also.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

(8) PRESS LINK was very impressive winning first up from a failed Hong Kong venture here a fortnight back. He left here as a very well performed 3yo however just didn’t seem to appreciate his overseas surroundings. Back home to a track he loves he went home over the leaders late in a race which wasn’t run to suit at all. (15) GOSPEL GIRL is a model of consistency who will take plenty of benefit from her close up second in the same race. (14) ESTRONDO is flying this prep, (13) FACUNDO is smart & promising, may need the run though?

Numbers: 8 – 15 – 14 – 13

Suggested Bet: PRESS LINKE TO WIN.

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