Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Summer Carnival racing continues at Doomben on Saturday. Track will be rain affected to some extent with more showers & storms possible in the lead up & including on race day, tread very warily. Many in this opening race look to be well under the odds in my opinion. For that reason I went looking for value & ended up putting the newcomer to the Gollan yard (4) LAND BANK on top however I will be guided by the betting moves. Good at Hawkesbury he should lap up the longer trip. (2) CLEAR PROOF closed off strongly in a Midway at Rosehill last start, best form is clearly on wet ground. (1) CARPACCIO another market watch.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: Exotics best.

RACE 2

More than happy to stick with (6) THINKHARDANDFAST who was a strong winner at the Sunshine Coast last Saturday sitting on speed before powering clear of her rivals early in the straight. Her form lines are very strong; her strike rate is impressive & with the claim for Jai Williams she gets in with half a kilo less than last week. (4) SOCIAL OUTCAST is another aided by a claim, very consistent looks close to a win, the trip is the unknown though. (11) THROTTLE RESPONSE almost landed the money last start, a win is near.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 11 – 5

Suggested Bet: THINKHARDANDFAST TO WIN.

RACE 3

(13) LITTLE JEANIE has raced very well since venturing north to join the Jack Bruce stable. She capped off the run of good form with a last start midweek win at Eagle Farm rounding up her rivals coming clear to score by almost 2 lengths with 59kg. With Emily Lang to steer today from the rails draw she’s going to be right in the finish once again. (14) POCKETMONEY has won 2 of her past 3, she accounted for Trapedo last start who I thought was unlucky last Saturday. (10) SAN GABRIEL should have finished closer last start (held up) & handles all types of going.

Numbers: 13 – 14 – 10 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

(7) CHIEF WITNESS landed a good run in the race winning at Eagle Farm last start & in this field I don’t see why he can’t prove hard to beat once again. The query of course is the ground, he really wants it the better side of soft (or even drier) however there’s plenty of others in this race with similar or other concerns, I’ll stick with him. (6) SPACE TRACKER & (2) CORFE CASTLE both need it as dry as possible, on such a surface they are well placed, not so on something wet. (3) DEMON DARB may end up the one best placed, resumes however is more than capable fresh & gets through any ground.

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

Really hoping the track isn’t too wet & the Gollan yard decide to send the unbeaten mare (9) BALANCE THE BOOKS around. Dominant winning on debut with a big barnstorming finish she was sent for a break before resuming early in the month again sitting back before having her rivals covered once asked for an effort in the straight. She’s very talented & can bring up the hat trick. (2) PIERATA’S GEM just failed to overhaul the winner first up at the Gold Coast & strips fitter, ran ok in tougher races last prep & wet ground is no concern. (4) HEESEN has upside.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: BALANCE THE BOOKS TO WIN.

RACE 6

(4) FIRST MISSION & (12) NOW IS THE HOUR are the two who really should fight this race out & track conditions will have a strong bearing on which one I’m siding with. (4) FIRST MISSION is well placed should the going be wet, he also should have won last start if not for a change in early tactics, lack of intent early clearly cost him the race. (12) NOW IS THE HOUR has run his rivals off their legs 2 of his past 3 starts, with all that speed he’s better placed on firmer footing although has won well on a soft (5). (1) SER JOH third up will be getting close, will have to lump a big weight however aided somewhat by the claim.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Top two selections depending on the going.

RACE 7

(2) ZASZOU resumed in a strong race at Randwick recently hitting the line well into third position. He handles all types of ground however note is also an acceptor at Rosehill, interestingly he’s without a jockey at both venues, where will he end up? Maybe home in his box! (5) MIDNIGHT IN TOKYO relishes the wet ground, she just doesn’t win enough for me however is never far away at this level & today could well be her day. (9) SUNSET DREAMING is fitter & worth including, ditto (3) EL MORZILLO.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

One tough race, track conditions all important. Going to leave my original tip (4) ROCKRIBBED on top who was well out of the money first up in the Keith Noud however as a leader he missed the kick which effectively meant ‘game over’, a completely forgivable effort. Expect him a lot closer to the lead this time around & wet ground is not a concern. (9) BOOMTOWN BOSS has the ability; can he produce on anything worse than soft? (1) CIFRADO definitely can & his recent form has been an improvement. (11) HATCHET & (7) TUF TU MUS right in it, certainly an acid test for the latter.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

I’m a fan of this lightly raced mare (16) MARGOT’S DEEL who surprised many of us with her win here at Doomben three back when still a maiden. To her credit she hasn’t been a one hit wonder with a good second & win at her only two starts since. Happy to side with her as I love her consistency. (11) VORACIOUS & (1) EXPRESS PAYMENT will roll forward, the latter pulled up with heat stress last start suggesting he can improve here. (2) NAVAL SEAL an improver, (3) LOST HIS BEANS 1600m+?

Numbers: 16 – 11 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: MARGOT’S DEEL TO WIN.

RACE 10

(2) CASPERNOVA is back in winning form of late scoring at his past two starts. Early scratchings see him come in quite a few slots barrier wise already, he’ll jump from a good alley & the ground is no concern, claim a help also. (19) BOSSED Up is racing well & will gain a start, big chance down in the weights from an ideal draw. (8) MISTER BIANCO the class runner, wet & first up form positive, market?

Numbers: 2 – 19 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet: CASPERNOVA EACH-WAY.

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