Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Doomben on Saturday should take place on a Good rated surface, a few showers are possible however nothing of any note. We get things underway with a 2yo featuring a fairly even match of raced runners & debutantes, market moves will be all important. Should PRETTY DUBIOUS not be a noted drifter I’m happy to have something each-way as he comes out of a trial won by debut winner Amosu which was run in quick time. He sat 3 deep throughout yet wasn’t far away at the end without being pressured. No knock BETTERLUCKNEXTTIME who has the score on the board winning both starts, no ‘official’ trials. IMPERVIOUS was very well supported off a good trial to win on debut, plenty of ticks from the inside gate.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: PRETTY DUBIOUS EACH-WAY (small bet if remains firm in the market).

RACE 2

Nos.3 & 7 set the tempo on paper this race which looks a tricky affair. JUST FLYING has the numerical form & rolls forward, should there be any pressure applied early or midrace I feel he’s suspect at a strong mile. JOVITA draws a lot better than she has her previous couple of starts & should be strong late, if close enough to strike could well do so. SHARP DAZZLER is the best horse in the race & looks ready to win, unfortunately he maps back near last likely on the fence which suggests a possible ‘train wreck’. That’s my concern with him.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

This race not likely to be run at any great tempo. Average bunch of locals taking on the interstate raider FINAL RESET who is racing in peak form. I’ll lean his way as his early price seems fair, certainly wouldn’t be taking anything short about him or any runner in the race. LUCKY EXCHANGE drops back from a much stronger race here last week & with the claim will carry only 0.5kg more weight. ARIZONA DREAMING & LIKEABEEL in the mix.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 7 – 6

Suggested Bet: Very wide exotics.

RACE 4

I tipped SURPRISE HONEY here last Saturday & due to a wide draw she was scratched & kept on ice for this week where she comes up with a much more favourable alley. In what does appear an open race with solid speed she should end up with a good trip, wouldn’t be having my last on her however something small each-way looks about right. SER JOH finally broke his maiden last start & didn’t he do it in style bolting in at Ipswich by over 8 lengths, this is a tougher task however perhaps the penny has now dropped? WINSOME STAR can figure in the finish once again if not too far back in the run. BREEZIN’ was very impressive at a price on debut, poorly drawn. Ditto MERCIAN who can figure on form with a touch of luck.

Numbers: 15 – 6 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: SURPRISE HONEY EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

No clear leader in this race, doesn’t mean they’ll go slow, on many occasions it’s the complete opposite! SAVOUR THE DREAM couldn’t have been any more impressive winning a race at Eagle Farm back in December when settling back before cruising through the pack eventually running away to score by almost 2 lengths. It was basically a track gallop, he’s trialled at the Gold Coast recently running second under zero pressure, I’m firmly in his corner, he looks a good type. ATOMIC CLOCK looked good down south winning fresh, strong late repeated the dose at the Sunshine Coast, mile shouldn’t be a problem & in good hands. SUJEED continues to race consistently, goes to 1600m which is the unknown.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: SAVOUR THE DREAM TO WIN.

RACE 6

Good looking Class 3 where the tempo will be genuine, likely better. Anyone who was on TERMAGANT last start (which includes me) just has to back up here. Badly held up at the Sunshine Coast she found clear room late however unfortunately for all concerned it was too late as she zoomed home between rivals beaten a half-length on the line. It was a very tough watch, stick with her. BELEGATO is racing in very good fashion, good to the eye winning two back she brought that form to town beating all bar a very promising type last start. TERMAGANT’s stablemate FORTUNEER in the mix also.

Numbers: 11 – 12 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet: TERMAGANT TO WIN/Saver BELEGATO

RACE 7

KRONENBOURG will again be well fancied here & if able to park up on a soft speed will definitely take some running down. That was the case last start & he drops a couple of kilos rising to open company. Having said all of that I’m going to lean to FLYING TRAPEZE who comes out of a couple of stronger races of late. He’s yet to tick the mile box however he has put in a couple of strong closing efforts at 1400m suggesting he should handle it ok. RED TOP can feature from that gate with Angela Jones up, tidy weight drop as well.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

No metro wins race where I’m struggling to find a clear leader, is there one? Perhaps it will be INFLUENTIAL who draws the pole & generally doesn’t land too far from the front. He’s the horse to beat on form having resumed at Doomben beaten less than a length drawing 15 of 15 sitting deep throughout. Drops a whopping 5.5kg, there’s a fair bit to like about him today. NORTH OF ELI is another to fare well at the weights, he drops 6kg off a respectable second-up run, step up in distance no issue. LADY SHOTGUN maps awkwardly however should the breaks go her way she’ll be motoring late.

Numbers: 11 – 13 – 4 – 9

Suggested Bet: INFLUENTIAL TO WIN/small saver NORTH OF ELI.

RACE 9

ANEMACORE is the one with the upside here & he certainly returned to his better form last start when resuming. That was at Eagle Farm where he definitely enjoyed the wide-open spaces, here at Doomben he’s not as well suited however the additional trip can hopefully offset that. YET HE MOVES strips fitter for the first up run when just missing, will need luck off the wide gate though whilst EXPECTANT is racing well & can be included, dug very deep to score last start.

Numbers: 14 – 4 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet: ANEMACORE TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 10

LOST IN TRANSIT looks very well placed having returned in very good order this prep. Victorious first up he then placed behind the in-form Metalart before beating all bar the dominant winner at Listed level last start. Maps well, gets 2kg off for a very capable apprentice & back to 1200m won’t be a concern. Stablemate MASTER SHOWMAN can definitely run a race fresh, trial winner & Angela Jones booked is a good positive lead he’s ready to fire fresh. SHOW SOME DECORUM a market watch first run for the new yard, has a solid first up record.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: LOST IN TRANSIT TO WIN.

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