Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Race 1 kicks off the Rosehill card over 1400m on a Soft (5) surface with the rail out three metres where (1) FRIENDLY FIRE looks the horse to beat. He drops into a winnable contest off the back of a gutsy Randwick win over 1200m finding plenty under pressure when it mattered most, the step up to 1400m looks a natural progression for a horse who clearly relishes a fight. (3) HEARD OF HIM and (8) IMINASTATE the most likely to keep him honest whilst (4) GRIDLOCK rounds out the four selections as a horse who has been knocking on the door finishing third in each of his past two outings over this very trip, with a target to chase and the soft conditions presenting no obvious concern he looks the value play to run into the placings and is well worth including in wider exotics.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: FRIENDLY FIRE TO WIN.

RACE 2

Midway Handicap over 1200m where I’m leaning to (9) SHE SWINGS who looks well placed on the soft (5) surface against this grade. She shapes as a horse who can settle midfield and produce a sustained run right to the line, could prove tough to hold out late. (1) SMASHING TIME looms as the main danger and will look to dictate from the front. He is several weeks between runs since a Midway win at Gosford where he led throughout finding plenty under pressure to fend off his rivals, should he score an uncontested lead he could prove hard to run down. XPRESSO is well worth including in exotics.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

To the Highway! (4) HAMMOON SENSATION rolls forward and takes up a prominent position from the inside gate, he’s a talented type suited by the 1400m & should have finished closer last start, he can give this a decent shake. (20) BIDE YOUR TIME warrants strong each-way consideration, he strips fitter for the first-up run on the Canberra Acton track when not far from the winner, 1400m looks a natural progression for a horse with a very good strike rate. (7) RED RAGS TO BULLS rounds out the top three, he’s a bit hard to catch however should be peaking now & can run a race when in the right mood.

Numbers: 4 – 20 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: HAMMOON SENSATION EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Chris Waller trained (5) NOBLER goes on top here, he certainly has the look of a horse going places. Five weeks between runs since a win at Gosford, possibly a lucky one (2nd was stiff) however he took full advantage. He’s had a tick-over trial since & really does set up as though 2000m will suit. Stablemate (8) BELLE DETELLE is the most likely danger and shapes to be peaking at her third run back from a break, hard fit now and with those runs under her belt can test the top tip. (4) KING PEDRO was only a length away from Nobler first-up before a narrow second at Gosford, must include on that basis.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

No less than 7 Chris Waller trained runners accepted for this race! Little surprise I have them filling the top 4 slots in my selections. (6) SURF’S UP shapes as a horse capable of settling closer to the speed than some of her rivals and she’s been consistent this prep without winning, gets her chance today. (8) ERTIJAAJ the logical danger & I’m confident one of the pair will win the race, she didn’t look 100% happy on the bog here a fortnight back however she had class on her side which came to the fore late. Drier track suits, not so much the drop in trip though? (11) TARZING resumes, settles off speed however can produce a strong finish.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 11 – 12

Suggested Bet: SURF’S UP/ERTIJAAJ TO WIN.

RACE 6

(13) WRITTEN SCANDAL, a recent Randwick barrier trial winner gets the nod here. Yet to miss a placing at three previous first up attempts which includes a win she should land a good position in running from the good draw & with the claim gets in nice & light. (16) GORGEOUS was a dual acceptor for this meeting, connections have decided to go around in this race & she’s a definite threat. Luckless in Listed grade at Scone two back she had excuses the latest. ROYAL FLARE is a genuine each-way chance and well worth including in all trifectas and first fours, lightly raced with a very good record to date.

Numbers: 13 – 16 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: WRITTEN SCANDAL/GEORGEOUS EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

(16) BIG PAPA looked to be trucking along here first up yet at other stages he looked gone, to his credit he kept chasing and finding the line. Suggest he didn’t feel at home on the heavy ground & can produce his best back on to a drier deck this afternoon. (8) SNACK BAR is a complete enigma, he just doesn’t like the winning post, one thing he is though is consistent suggesting he can figure in the placings, no better though. (1) APPLAUD strips fitter & the stable certainly know how to place a horse, he shapes as the value play of the race and is well worth including at odds.

Numbers: 16 – 8 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet: BIG PAPA TO WIN.

RACE 8

Today’s feature is the Listed Queen Elizabeth II Cup over 2400m which promises to be a genuine staying test. Selection is (7) THEBUDGIESMUGLA who produced a tough win over 2400m before stepping back in trip for the Lord Mayor’s Cup (2000m) last start running bravely on strong speed in a genuine swoopers race. Well weighted today he meets the winner of that race (1) PORTLAND 6.5kg better off. (2) MAISON LOUIS settled well back & was badly hampered his latest run, strong finishing effort the run prior and looks ready, logical danger who won his only 2400m outing (Queensland Derby). (6) BLACK RUN had race-shape and tempo against last start, note is unbeaten both 2400m attempts.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

(9) SWIFTIE HARRIET gets the nod here off a very unlucky last start fourth at Flemington. Held up badly for a rom she only gained clear running late & zoomed to the line just missing out, prior runs in stronger Group 3 company were pass marks however this is her right level & looks very suitable. (7) LA BASILIQUE looms as the main danger, tried in stronger company last start she was far from disgraced however is better placed at this grade & is 100% over todays 1300m trip. (3) TICKLEBELLY continues to race well & is aided by Braith Nock’s claim.

Numbers: 9 – 7 – 3 – 17

Suggested Bet: SWIFTIE HARRIET EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

(18) CONGRESSMAN has been building quietly at his two runs this preparation with the step up in trip looking the right move. Drawn a perfect gate he takes on tougher opposition however drops plenty in weight, gets his chance to bring up win number two. (4) FIDDLERS GREEN looms as the main danger, game in defeat at this track and distance a fortnight back sitting near the speed he gave his all however found one better in Mawjood. (12) SEVEN’S makes the final three and brings strong recent form from Queensland acquitting himself well. (5) GOLDEN CENTURY can produce a sweeping late run if the race is truly run, include.

Numbers: 18 – 4 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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