Glenn Ingram’s Saturday Pakenham Preview

Good race for the juveniles, the best from the jumpouts are HE’S REGAL and TAG THE BRIDE, the latter is easy to like, he’s been very professional in two jumpouts, winning his latest on the Pak synthetic showing a good turn of speed. His family are all 1000m types and that should see him out, prefer on a tighter circuit to find out. The former hasn’t put a hoof wrong either, the Zoustar colt debuts off two 800m jumpout wins at Cranbourne, similar to his sire he likes to get his head down and stretch his neck to the line. He gets the nod given he’s likely to hold an in-run advantage and the stable has a great record at the track. Like the improvement NEOTROPICAL showed between two jumpouts, BRIGHT STAR also looks to have talent.

Selections: 1,9,8,6

Suggested Bet: HE’S REGAL win

Two key winning chances. TEXAS TEA is flying and crying out for this extra trip, he’s been game in the finish his past couple after racing on-speed. Now stepping to 2500m, Mick Dee takes the ride and he can outstay his rivals to capitalise on his good recent form. BLACK PEPPERMINT has been slow to come hand this prep, his last start win at an unsuitable track suggests he’s at peak fitness now, a negative racing style means he’ll be relying on others ahead of him. HAALAND was nominated for the Cup and elected for this softer option, drawn a good gate to be effective on-speed. SHOCKLETZ has been just fair this prep, her best puts her in contention.

Selections: 12,4,6,1

Suggested Bet: TEXAS TEA & BLACK PEPPERMINT win

Hard to split JENNI GONE BONKERS and ASTRAL FLAME, the latter was crunched in betting at Caulfield going from a maiden to stakes grade, wobbled around Caulfield and finished well once balanced, she may be a wetty but deserving of another chance after she was so impressive up the long straight. The former also races well here, she has a few quirks, it’s a good race for her coming out of the Class 3 at Cranbourne. I ONLY WISH has jumped out super since her fast-finishing effort at Flemington, she just can’t put herself into races and her record reflects it. MISS PLAYLOUNGE caught the at the jumpouts to begin the prep, she is a must include if the track is in the dry range.

Selections: 9,2,8,6

Suggested Bet: None

Even race. BIANCELLI gave away alot of ground mid-race at Cranbourne first-up over 1000m and savaged the line, jumpouts were impressive leading in off a long break. Doubt they make the same mistake again, expect her on-speed with Logan Bates taking over and a winning chance provided she’s come on for it. MANOLO BLING will give a sight, a month between runs after fading on-speed at listed level, back to benchmark company, loved her recent jumpout although that’s never been her issue. SWEETHEARTED is a big market watch, she’s promised more than she’s delivered to date, wary of this being a target race. HARRY GOT STYLES has a tweak to his gear, if he gets the speed on, some hope.

Selections: 7,5,6,2

Suggested Bet: None

There’s a chance this will be run quick setting it up for the Payne-trained PROMISED LAND who enjoyed a strong speed last time and flew home at Warrnambool running out of ground late, Logan Bates is a key rider change, winning chance. EYE FOR AN EYE pulled his way to lead with the money on first-up here at 1600 in his 2nd prep for the new stable and kept finding. He repeated the effort up in grade and may get a similar run outside leader KHOEKHOE once more for this higher level. The latter likes to bowl along and there is pressure around him. PRINCE ERIC backs up from Ballarat and he too enjoys the speed on. SUNTORA bolted in a weak BM66, this is much harder.

Selections: 9,10,3,11

Suggested Bet: PROMISED LAND 1 x 3

Good race. Speed solid. WAIMARIE backing up and NATIONS CALL lock horns up front, RHINOCEROS may invite himself in, he needs it dry, some showers forecast. MADIYYA is well-placed second-up despite rising in class, given none from the back at Cranbourne fresh with 58.5kg, she looks to camp off a decent tempo and can sprint best at the mile with her light weight. ELECTRIC IMPULSE is on the 7-day back-up, watching her through the line it’s easy to see why, third-up now peaking off a long break and a chance to sit closer in the run, senior rider is a positive. ALTIVO is the fresh horse on the scene, blinkers added, he posseses a big finish, the long Pakenham straight gives him a chance to put it on show.

Selections: 12,4,2,3

Suggested Bet: MADIYYA win

The two key chances are down in the weights. Target race for SKIPPERS CANYON and that was somewhat evident when trainer quipped pre-race hadn’t done much with him between runs at Caulfield, raced dour and hit the line nicely for this step up in distance, holds a 2100m win in NZ, first go at this trip, i suspect he eats it up but the market will be telling, this stable is lethal in their own backyard. BLACK RUN has the positive racing pattern and was heavily-bet at Caulfield last start, he was under pressure when the speed came in to it, i like the way he responded and that sets him up for the extra distance. Further chances to ZIRYAB and DIWALI coming out of the same race at Caulfield.

Selections: 16,11,15,14

Suggested Bet: SKIPPERS CANYON win

PRIVATE EYE is a good horse and hard to fault, a proven weight carrier and a deserving favourite, he was never a winning chance when too far back in the Russell Balding and given a month off with a trial between runs and should win if he turns up here at his top. PINSTRIPED is looking to recapture his best form after an ordinary start to the prep, recent Cranbourne jumpout was encouraging without any head-gear on, worth keeping safe at a price. ZOU SENSATION was slow away and costly last start, genuine horse from an on-speed position. TAKEN is a winner with a likeable racing style and has been well-managed to this point, this is a big ask.

Selections: 3,2,8,9

Suggested Bet: PRIVATE EYE win

PERSIAN SPIRIT is worth sticking with, he was enormous in defeat at Caulfield, finding traffic and beaten by a superb Mark Zahra ride on the winner. Wide draw this time may work out in his favour with clear air and a weight advantage over key rivals. JIMMY THE BEAR has give to his rivals weight and race fitness, however, he’s done a power of work at the jumpouts and trials to have him ready for this firs-up assignment, blinkers back on suggest some early intent in the prep, first-up last time he took ground off War Machine, inner draw is the niggle. RUN HARRY RUN goes forward and can give a sight, enjoyed the right run in the China Bowl and has come back well. ENXUTO did have aspirations for a G1 Railway and went to the Cranbourne Cup instead, he was ok in the fast-run race, back to 1400m suits.

Selections: 7,1,5,6

Suggested Bet: PERSIAN SPIRIT win

Tricky finish. BIG SWINGER has been ok in two runs, he is still unsure of his job and the blinkers go on to sharpen him up. Late in the day coming wide on the track he may be in the good spot. Ditto DIRTY GRIN who was super winning first-up for Nick Ryan at Geelong, he likes to balance up early and finish hard. NAVAL ACADEMY is a big gross type who improves with racing and is now hard & fit, he and HEARCOMESTHESTAR come through the same race at Cranbourne, Naval Academy now gets a 2kg swing on her. Also respecting HEART OF GLASS who is a solid first-up performer.

Selections: 1,9,6,5

Suggested Bet: Multiples with 1,6,9