Races

How to Win on Melbourne Cup Day

Posted on | Posted by TABtouch

The Melbourne Cup, Australia’s most iconic horse race, is just around the corner. With early favourite Sir Delius now ruled out, “the race that stops a nation” is already bringing the thrills!

So why is this the race that stops the nation? It’s not held on a Saturday, and the prize pool is less than that of Australia’s richest race, The Everest. The Cup’s allure lies not only in the challenge, but also its deep cultural significance.

The event transcends sport, bringing workplaces, pubs, and entire cities to a standstill as millions tune in to watch. With a history dating back to 1861, the Melbourne Cup is a unique spectacle that captures hardcore fans and casual observers alike.

The challenge explained

One thing that makes the Melbourne Cup so unique is its 3200m distance. April’s Group 1 Sydney Cup held at Randwick is the only other 3200m Thoroughbred race on the Aussie calendar. The Jericho Cup, a Benchmark 90 held at Warrnambool, is the only longer race, at a whopping 4600m.

Another challenge lies in the depth and diversity of its field. Unlike many elite races that feature smaller, select groups, the Cup regularly attracts up to 24 runners, making it the largest handicap race in Australia. This creates a highly tactical contest where positioning, pace, and luck in running play enormous roles.

Adding to the complexity is the influx of international talent. The top-class European and Asian stayers bring different racing styles, and proven stamina from international staying races. The combination of a big field, varied form lines, and global competition means that even the most accomplished horses face an unpredictable and fiercely competitive test.

A punter’s perspective

We’ve established the Melbourne Cup has a unique mix of distance, international raiders, and unpredictability. So how can you pick a winner? Since Fiorente’s win as favourite in 2013, no top pick has claimed the Cup. Outsiders like Knight’s Choice at $91 in 2024 prove that anything can happen. It’s often a good idea to diversify your bet types and mix favourites with a few roughies in your selections. Here are a few tips to maximise your chances of getting the money on Cup Day.

Betting strategy

  • An each-way bet allows you to back a horse to win and place, so you’ll still get something back if your horse doesn’t win but comes second or third.
  • Back two to four horses to finish in the Top 4 with a Same Race Multi This gives you some skin in the game without even having to pick a winner.
  • Exotic bets like boxed trifectas or quinellas spread the risk across multiple runners, and for a small investment the returns can be staggering.

Picking your runners

  • Look for horses proven over 2400m+ or with strong staying pedigrees.
  • Check the weight the runners are carrying. Top weights rarely win; horses carrying 55kg or less often fare better.
  • Pay attention to how horses fare in lead-up runs like the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate – but don’t ignore surprise packages from overseas.
  • Melbourne weather can change quickly, so make sure the horse can handle the track conditions, whether it’s wet or firm ground.
  • Don’t forget the barrier draw. Midfield draws help avoid traffic, but they aren’t a sure thing. Barrier 5 has produced the most Cup winners with nine, followed by Barrier 14 with eight, Barrier 10 with seven, and six for both Barriers 11 and 19.
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