Races

The Everest Power Rankings: Week 8

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

1. I WISH I WIN
Last Start: September 2, Memsie Stakes (3rd)
Odds: $5.50

Been either number one or two seed right from the outset. Interesting preparation having run first up 7 weeks ago over 1400m he now finds himself back to 1200m. Peter Moody knows him better than any other & the plan has been solid from the outset, all reports are he’s right where the stable want him to be fitness wise. The inside barrier draw has been a real topic of conversation, it’s not ideal however it will likely see him closer & with a gap for Luke Nolen to drive through in the straight he’s going to be letting rip with a big finish. This is one of those occasions for me where I’m throwing the barrier out the window & tipping the best horse with the best form.

2. PRIVATE EYE
Last Start: September 16, The Shorts (1st)
Odds: $6

Super consistent galloper who must rate highly on his second placed finish last year beaten only by Giga Kick. Joe Pride hasn’t started him since winning The Shorts 4 weeks ago with just a barrier trial (2nd) in between as he wants him a lot fresher for this year’s tilt at the big race. His first up win was against the tempo cutting down Overpass & he gets 100m further on Saturday which will suit.

3. THINK ABOUT IT
Last Start: September 30, Premiere Stakes (1st)
Odds: $4.40

I expected a dominant win from this one first up however he fell in by the smallest of margins. His fitness will obviously improve however the other factor which worked against him was the rails run Sam Clipperton had to take early in the straight, that exposed him way too early which is not his pattern, he’s generally the one winding up late going home over the leaders not holding on for dear life! He’ll be ridden differently in The Everest & keep in mind if not for a very unlucky defeat earlier in his career he’d be unbeaten & going for 12 straight wins come Saturday.

4. CYLINDER
Last Start: September 23, Golden Rose (3rd)
Odds: $8.50

Being a 3yo he gets in nice & light against the older horses. Outstanding performance in the Golden Rose when posted 3 wide the entire trip in a fast run race. Arguably he wins that race with a kinder run & I love his set up on Saturday mapping to box seat from the ideal draw. We’ve had 6 running’s of The Everest with 3yo’s winning twice, well worth keeping in mind.

5. OVERPASS
Last Start: September 16, The Shorts (2nd)
Odds: $12

Beaten fair & square by Private Eye first up it’s hard to see him turning the tables unless the speed map goes exactly to plan & he’s allowed run along unchallenged in the lead. The trip away to Perth earlier this year did him the world of good winning the rich Quokka before beaten only by Giga Kick in the Doomben 10,000 & it took that one a lot longer than most expected to get past. Kept up to the mark he trialled well since the first up run speeding clear of a strong bunch of rivals. His chances look likely to be decided by what happens in the first part of the race.

6. HAWAII FIVE OH
Last Start: September 30, Premiere Stakes (2nd)
Odds: $13

If I’m giving Think About It a winning chance, then this Waterhouse/Bott runner has to be some hope as well based on his run in The Premiere. He zoomed down the outside clocking slick sectionals in a race not at all run to suit. Keep in mind he also clocked in 3rd behind the same horse in the Group 1 Stradbroke earlier this year at Eagle Farm. The wide gate is a negative, yes he will need a fair bit of luck from out there & definitely doesn’t want a soft tempo.

7. BUENOS NOCHES
Last Start: September 16, The Shorts (3rd)
Odds: $14

Ran quicker sectionals home than Private Eye in The Shorts & came from further back in the run. Yet to win a Group 1 or 2 he did place in The Coolmore down the Flemington straight last year & was close up in both the Lightning & Newmarket at the same track earlier this year. He’s going to need luck from the back.

8. SHINZO
Last Start: September 23, Golden Rose (9th)
Odds: $16

He’s the wildcard in my opinion, very hard to line up. Golden Slipper winner who pulled up lame in The Golden Rose yet was beaten less than 3 lengths & ran top 3 sectionals home. Keep in mind he had Cylinder’s measure in that Slipper win & master trained Chris Waller will have him spot on for this.

9. ESPIONA
Last Start: September 23, Golden Pendant (3rd)
Odds: $15

The other Chris Waller trained runner in the race she’s a Group 1 winning mare who won with good authority last start. Not likely to make use of the good draw the best she’s likely to settle is around midfield. Hugh Bowman to ride is a definite plus however I’m against here at this level.

10. IN SECRET
Last Start: September 16, The Shorts (4th)
Odds: $11

Kept fresh with only a trial between her latest run & the big one on Saturday. Drawn widely the map is ugly, she’ll give away a decent start. Form wise she was good in The Shorts making ground & James Cummings will have her spot on, she’s just going to need a ton of luck unfortunately. She does have Zac Purton doing the steering, that’s a definite plus.

Speed map: Don’t see a lot of speed on paper, would have to think Overpass leads comfortably with maybe Mazu pushing forward to 2nd. Cylinder likely box seats on the fence. The rest are all midfield or worse settling types, having said that this race is worth 20 million dollars, there has to some pressure early on.

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