Races

Scott Embry’s Thursday Bunbury Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MAMMA SAYS SO resumed in a C1, met with support at odds and ran well. Drops 1kg into an easier race and considering Canny Kev went to a 72+ and ran second to Haida Gwaii she’s going to be understandably popular in betting here. MAYTHISBETHEONE comes through the Desert Waves, Can’t Catch Me race which was 5.5L faster than maiden average. Desert Waves has already won a C3 and Can’t Catch Me will go toe to toe with highly thought of stablemate Win For Buster at Belmont on Wednesday. BUDERIM did everything wrong on debut when third behind Scenic Wings and Crows on a deteriorating Soft7 and then again looked fairly uncomfortable on a Heavy8 45 days later in a C1 behind Niccimota and Prince. He’s a slow burn and a work in progress. CASSENITE was huge (again) last start.

Numbers: 8 – 7 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – MAMMA SAYS SO WIN

RACE 2  

LEAFICE is no star but with a set of shades going on and an ideal barrier she’ll land into the first four and this is probably the weakest maiden she has seen to date. There doesn’t look to be any stand outs in this and if the blinkers can give her an extra length then that’s probably enough to be right in the finish here. BIT TIRED ACTUALLY had three runs in his initial preparation and they were all handy enough. Think he’ll ultimately want further than this but being back and wide has been no disadvantage at Bunbury recently. SO MUCH SERENITY nearly pinched a 1400m maiden last prep when allowed to stride. She’s first-up, no trial and Tom Wolfe strikes at 18% at his home track. CORACAO went around 25-1 last start and fought on well into second behind Playing Free. Just not convinced the drop back to 1200m does her any favours?

Numbers: 7 – 6 – 5 – 4    

Suggested Bet – LEAFICE WIN

RACE 3  

SOVEREIGN SALUTE comes through the Desert Waves, Can’t Catch Me, Maythisbetheone race and expecting that they’ll all run well across the 48 hour period. Desert Waves was $3.70 to $2.20 on Sunday when winning a C3 impressively, Can’t Catch Me should run a minor to Win For Buster (or even stretch him?) and Maythisbetheone is one of the main players in the opener. Given he went around 50-1 on debut he’ll likely be under-estimated in early markets and can run a cheeky race here. LUNA BALLET was brave last start behind Safedeel. It was a race where Safedeel simply ran them into the ground (overall time 4L faster than average) and they never came up for air. Hard to run down. JESA LUPA has flashed ability here and there and now gets Pike. YANKEE ACE has a tongue tie re-attached and a barrier to work with.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 6 – 5   

Suggested Bet – SOVEREIGN SALUTE EACHWAY     

RACE 4  

STREAK OF GOD resumed at 1400m when just over 3L adrift of all the way winner Safedeel and Luna Ballet (goes around in Race 3). If that form was to stack up then it will make Streak of God stepping out to 1695m increasingly popular. Looks like a galloper who will get ground and given the way he races the winkers are a smart move too. VAMPI QUEEN was scratched from Sunday at Pinjarra to save for this. She’s drawn barrier 1 which looks great initially, but you’ll have to monitor the track conditions, fence has been off at the last five BTC meetings. LA NOCCIOLA has finished in the money at three of her last four and the only time she didn’t was a complete forgive. Trying hard and knocking on the door. MAGIC CARATS has promised to win a race all preparation but just can’t quite find the right set up.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 11 – 1    

Suggested Bet – STREAK OF GOD WIN  

RACE 5  

SO IMMACULATE has found her feet in WA. It took her five runs to win a race but after leading and winning the C1 this track/distance on 21 January she has gone to Geraldton and fought on into second behind a nice 3 year old in Yapper and then bounced back to her winning ways this track/distance/grade last time out. Looks another slightly tricky map but given she sat and won last start there’s no reason why she can’t again. HEZANGELIC gets a 1kg weight swing to try and turn the tables and in each ride Giaan O’Donnell is getting stronger and more confident. BLUE CAN TALK nearly won a 60+ Graduation two back and then was simply outclassed in the Mares Race on Magic Millions Day. ETERNAL WINE has blinkers on and hopefully they bring her back to her best because she’s better than last start.  

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 3 – 8   

Suggested Bet – SO IMMACULATE WIN

RACE 6

SAFEDEEL has a lovely high cruising speed and that will put him in good stead for the rest of his racing career at this distance range. Think between 1400 & 1800 he’ll be able to work his way to the top, get rivals chasing from the 800 and be able to work his way through the grades. MISS VEUVE resumed in the 66+ Mares Race on Magic Millions Day and was never going to be a hope at 1200m. Second-up, back in grade and out to 1400m she’ll be a sharp improver. NIKELPLAY has become a really frustrating mare. Showed so much early but has struggled to clear out of C1 company since. JAZALOT is getting really close now, but always query inside / fence in run at Bunbury now.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 7 – 5     

Suggested Bet – SAFEDEEL WIN

RACE 7

AZENA has been a midfield / backmarking type her entire career – enter Holly Nottle. Since she’s jumped aboard she has run second to Vatican Storm leading and then bolted in a C3 at Belmont. She’ll have to do some work here to get across but if she finds the breeze then it also means she can get herself up the track in the home straight if pattern dictates that’s necessary. DECORATION walked his way to the top on Magic Millions Day, controlled, dictated and kicked hard into the corner. Think he’ll land 1×1 here and get the right run. MANHATTAN STRIP is a 3x C5 winner. Admittedly he would prefer if this was Northam but his efforts this prep have all been better than they read on paper and he’s dropped 4 points in the process. SEINDEEL is yet to find his feet in WA but does drop 3.5kg here.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 4 – 7    

Suggested Bet – AZENA WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,4,6,11,12

1,3,7,8

3,4,5,7

2,4,6

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