Races

Scott Embry’s Sunday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1  

MAHUTAS did everything to throw away the race first-up at Carnarvon when beaten in the shadows by Shamara (C1 winner since). He then stepped out as a $2.20 favourite when never in the hunt over 1200m. Given 45 days by Graeme Hammarquist and dropping back to 1000m looks capable of bouncing back. LE WREN and LUNA NOBEL both have their first start on dirt and both have legitimate winning claims. Both are quick and both are race fit in the middle of preparations. No surprise to see either of them salute. OFF THIS PLANET one for novelty inclusion at a price.

Numbers: 1 – 6 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – MAHUTAS WIN

RACE 2

FEELS HOT looks the standout on the program. Finished second to Mystical Man in a 64+, finished second to Regal City in a 56+. If there was an All-In Market for the 2022 Carnarvon Cup they would be the two gallopers heading the market and Feels Hot drops back into a C1 mile. Think he leads or breezes and from there he should be winning. GRACIEBIRD went around a $3.30 chance last start in a C3. Only her second start on the dirt but expecting her to measure up as the danger. SUNDAY GIN has shades re-attached and ran well first-up behind Our Charlie Boy. UNIBELLE was a great winner first-up but against battling maidens.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – FEELS HOT WIN   

RACE 3  

BIG BLOWS is a dirt specialist who heads up to Carnarvon for the first time in the campaign. Michelle Hagley looks to have him going well and even his most recent when settling last and running last behind Shoot Ur Shot reads up as good form for a race like this (and he dropped 2 points). He is a two time winner at Carnarvon (68+ and 64+) and this is only a 56+. Excellent placement and looks hard to beat. ARMED AND READY is the ultimate hit and miss horse. Jumped brilliantly two starts ago and was never getting beaten. Every other start he’s refused to go early and it’s game over. NERO CHIN CHIN is simply a different horse with Tash Faithfull. ZIERA was a sharp improver last start.   

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – BIG BLOWS WIN  

RACE 4  

CAPE SOUNION went close three starts ago in a 56+ 1200 behind Mordor beaten a nose. Since then has been beaten big margins behind Regal City, but there’s nothing wrong with finishing 5 & 6L off Regal City, he is absolutely flying. Back to 1400m, blinkers back on and Tash Faithfull on. Few things to like here. LAYLO brings intrigue at her Carnarvon debut. Won a 56+ at Esperance only two starts ago and can sit handy enough fresh. SUPERLOVE was able to find the front last start and travelled strongly throughout. Good strong gritty win. HYPERSPACE an improver out in trip. 

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – CAPE SOUNION WIN

RACE 5

PASSPORT was first-up no trial when making his Carnarvon dirt debut. Kicked through to lead from barrier 1 and was strong to the line. Rises in grade, rises in weight and rises in distance but he can kick through to lead and control again which makes him the horse to beat. SHAMARA on the other hand will likely settle midfield or worse and look to sustain a finishing sprint. Beneficiary of a 12/10 ride from Lisa Staples last start. Legitimate danger. AMELIA’S CHANT dropped back to 1000m last start which probably didn’t suit. CYCLONICAL is leaving her winning chances in the barriers at the minute.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – PASSPORT WIN

RACE 6

OUR INSIDER has burst onto the scene in Carnarvon since being unveiled by Ken Nightingale in June. Won a 56+ by a space when well supported in betting and then backed it up with a 64+ win from the box seat when bolting in behind them and bursting clear late. Steps to 1200m but that shouldn’t worry him and the way he’s racing he looks hard to beat in the 2022 Al’s Liquor Minilya Sprint. CALABRIA JOE either loads and runs well or refuses to load and is nearly retired. Always hard work for barrier staff which is frustrating because he can win this if he goes in. Big if. MORDOR is always popular in betting and is always thereabouts in this grade. COUNTER DRIVE re-joins the stables of Nat Burke and is capable. 

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – OUR INSIDER WIN

RACE 7

HUMAN NATURE is an interesting galloper to assess here. First start on the dirt, 61.5kg (after the 3kg claim for Cassey Martinan) but goes well fresh and has the tactical speed to march around the outside into a prominent position. First-up in WA he ran second in a 70+ at Geraldton to Kenyluck. Reproduces an effort like that and he’s a big winning chance in this. Love the placement by Pink Flamingo Shirt ambassador Sean Rains. THE FULL QUID either jumps and runs – in which case she’s hard to run down. Or she misses the kick by 10L and it’s all over. That’s just her. VERDIGRAS is always hard to beat no matter what race Zach Tyler takes her to. CAROLINER REAPER a nice addition to the region. 

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – HUMAN NATURE WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

2,3,4,6,8

1,3,5

2,3,5,6

1,2,5,8,9,10

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