Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on May 18, 2023May 18, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

KRYSANOVA was too quick for Wiley Girl on debut at Ascot and then went to the Gimcrack when settling off the speed and finishing only 1.5L off Supremacy Stakes and Karrakatta Plate quinella Live To Tell and Super Smink. Cruised around in her recent trial and can stalk fellow speedy filly Sass Machine at her return to racing. Looks an exciting clash. SASS MACHINE was grabbed on the post by Eliteone on debut in a race where they went 3.5L faster than 2 year old average. With natural improvement in both fitness and experience she’ll be hard to run down. MASAMUNE was an unbelievably good run on debut for all the wrong reasons. He’s going to mature into a nice horse. AYUMI ran well on debut in the same race.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – KRYSANOVA WIN

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RACE 2

BLACK SPIRIT had to sit outside the speed last start at 1400m in what is the key form race (Arnie’s Boy, Pray Again, Black Spirit, My Fury, Almaher Man, Divine Quest). Thought she fought on well and at this stage of her campaign is probably looking for a mile. She’ll again sit up over the speed and fight on in what looks an open and even race. PRAY AGAIN gets back to Belmont Park (we’ve been patiently waiting) but as he showed last start, he’s got some tricks. More than capable, just depends which version turns up. ARNIE’S BOY was big when parking three deep outside the lead and battling on well in the concluding stages. MY FURY drops 2kg, returns to Belmont and should land a half decent spot.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – BLACK SPIRIT EACHWAY

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RACE 3

FEAR THE WIND is looking to notch a winning hattrick in this same 66+ grade. He’s rounded them up from last showing a great turn of acceleration and then he’s out grinded them from close handy in a ridiculously slowly run race. Is versatile, is in form and is being given 10/10 rides from the Wizard. Vastly similar opposition yet again and see no reason why he won’t complete the hattrick. SLUICE BOX is one of the additions to the race and drops back into a 66+ for the first time in a long while. Last 14 outings have been in higher grade and his minor placings in the Pinjarra and Geraldton Cup must be respected. CISCOJOE ran well last start at his first attempt at a staying trip. ROMAN FLIRT is going along alright.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – FEAR THE WIND WIN

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RACE 4

MAJOR MAX maps to get a lovely run tracking the speed. With Kelvinator looking to hold up and then either Rear Admiral likely to eye off the breeze he can sit one out and one back following the favourite’s every move. From there he’ll get every chance to run a big race fresh and goes around at an eachway quote. REAR ADMIRAL is four from four undefeated and was fully tested last start by Sky Duke in the early and middle stages. She showed a lot of class to shake him off and then hold on. This is clearly her toughest test to date but she continues to get the job done. SWEAR TO GOD got no luck at all fresh. He can sit leader’s back here and enjoy a soft run. Sharp improver. ARID got within half a length of Rear Admiral fresh and only improves with more distance.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet – MAJOR MAX EACHWAY

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RACE 5

GHOST WHO WALKS is an ultra consistent sprinter who should get another lovely run tracking the speed. Absolutely no luck two starts ago and then got over subsequent winner Man Crush to score last start. Arguably goes better at Belmont than he does at Ascot and he always goes round eachway in his races. POT SHOT gets a 3kg weight swing in her favour for a half length defeat last start. Tricky draw barrier 6 of 9 and is a chance of being planted deep the trip. REAL DANGER has her first start for Danny Morton. Rarely runs a bad race and can sit up over the speed. VANE TEMPEST is a gun fresh and trialled super alongside The Velvet Queen.

Numbers: 2 – 9 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – GHOST WHO WALKS EACHWAY

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RACE 6

DEEP ENVY held off Pot Shot (since run third to Ghost Who Walks and Man Crush and runs favourite in the 66+) to win a 3 year old 62+ two starts ago and then stepped out to 1200m when running fairly into sixth behind Pearly Nugget, Kelvinator and Co. This race has really strong speed (My Baby Blue Jean and Devine Belief as well as Watto’s Fury) and she can park behind them and enjoy a lovely run. Looks well placed, well mapped and goes round double figures. HARMIKA has returned in good order. Likely to have to tramp deep throughout in this. DEVINE BELIEF beat up on battlers last start. This is a big step up but she looks more than capable. MY BABY BLUE JEAN likely to be ridden for pure speed.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – DEEP ENVY EACHWAY

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RACE 7 

VAST ART looks the kind of 3 year old who can measure up in the upcoming Raconteur / Belmont Guineas / Aquanita Stakes / Belmont Classic series. He enjoyed the run of the race last start when getting past leaders No Change/Never Sober in the concluding stages with chasing brigade Mojo Rhythm/Vitalize behind him. Looks a near identical set up here to track the speed and produce at the right time. Another ideal race for him and think he’ll be even better at Belmont Park. MOJO RHYTHM was below his best last start. Was an awkward ride for Jarrad Noske with Paddy’s Lad dropping back on top of him at the 600 just before he made his run at them. Forgive. NO CHANGE doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He and Never Sober lock horns again in front and 1600m about sees him out. EX SPORT MAN gets a whopping 4.5kg on him from their 22 April encounter. He’s back in some form.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – VAST ART WIN

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RACE 8

KEEP ATTACKING returned in brilliant fashion when tracking a hot speed and kicking clear late to record a 1L win. The overall time of that race was 4.5L faster than average so he’s likely to be popular throughout betting. Jade McNaught can push him out to hold a spot and in these races they usually go quick. He’ll settle in front of main rivals and should be afforded every opportunity. BLOW ME OUT meets him 1kg better and gets an extra 200m to try and run him down. Three deep moving line is often a nice spot in these races. STARRING KNIGHT is going to need some luck at some stage from the inside draw but it’s hard to fault the way he’s going. ABLOH was enormous in the Kalgoorlie heat.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet – KEEP ATTACKING WIN

Same Race Multi – Keep Attacking (Top 3) + Starring Knight (Top 3)

These Provincial Championship Finals are notorious difficult races with heats in Albany, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, York, Narrogin, Northam and Pinjarra bringing a capacity line-up of 16 horses with very different form lines together. Keep Attacking looks a really progressive 4 year old who can sit up over the speed and stay out of trouble. Starring Knight has won three of his last five but will need some luck from barrier 1. Both to finish in the money.

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RACE 9

EX SPORT GIRL brings the 3 year old form to a 60+ Graduation, which is exactly what worked for SJ Wolfe three starts ago when winning. Since then she’s run a narrow third to Deep Envy and Pot Shot and a solid third behind Pearly Nugget and Kelvinator. She’s racing like she wants 1400m and looks likely to slide across and park outside of Zadar Rock. She’s a tough filly and looks both well placed and well weighted. NO DICE went to a 66+ last start and more than held her own. She’s returned in great order and if she can find a back to follow in running is a big danger. SAVANIK was back to her best last start. DEBONNAIRE won his maiden in style. Huge step up in grade for him.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 7 – 10

Suggested Bet – EX SPORT GIRL EACHWAY

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,4,5,7,8

1,5,8

1,2,3,10

3,4,6,7,10

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