Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

CITY CIRCLE has an average Belmont Park card (11 starts without a win) but won’t get many better opportunities to figure in the finish than in this extremely evenly graded Westspeed Platinum race. This should be eachway the field and she maps to get the run she needs. Not disgraced behind Panzdown on a couple of occasions and last start finished alongside impressive midweek winner How’s The Serenity only 1.5L off Comes a Time and Devoted Star. As good a chance as any in a wide-open race. EXPRESS TIME looks to have found a race where she can cross to the fence. If she finds the front, she’ll take running down. FIERY WATER is an unknown at the 1000 but gets a soft run along the fence. BEDOUIN BELLE rarely runs a bad race.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – CITY CIRCLE EACHWAY

RACE 2

Will ASTRAPE back up from Wednesday? Huge unknown element in the race so we’ll push her to one side for now. The three-way clash of GUARD THE SAFE, BANDALERA BEAU and DISENGO is an interesting one to dissect. GUARD THE SAFE maps to get an identical run to last start and with race experience should only be getting better into the campaign. DISENGO is drawn far better and can settle a pair closer in the run. BANDALERA BEAU is drawn in no man’s land but there might be a temptation to lead in a race devoid of speed. ASTRAPE has been luckless from impossible barriers her last two. Will she run?

Numbers: 2 – (6) – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – GUARD THE SAFE WIN

RACE 3

SHE’S GOD TO YOU has been a revelation this preparation. Resumed in a lowly C1 and ran well from leader’s back when squeezing up the inside late in the race. Second-up found the front in a 3 year old 62+ and ran them ragged leading throughout in sizzling time. Third-up was drawn in the carpark and ridden with cover and ran a solid race. Last week was thrown in the deep end into the Raconteur Stakes and finished third behind Graceful Girl and Billy Ain’t Silly. Backs up off 7 days, drawn to stalk the speed and is racing in career best form. THE SPRUIKER gets an identical run in transit to what he enjoyed first-up when saluting. GHOST WHO WALKS enjoys a favourable run. SON SON will need some luck from the gate.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – SHE’S GOD TO YOU WIN

RACE 4

BEAT THE BRO is a hard horse to catch but ran home impressively with 59kg first-up no trial at 1300m after racing deep the trip. Drawn a gate, Alan Kennedy riding well and Sharon Miller’s yard sneaking under the radar. This is an even 60+ Graduation without any stars and a number of his main rivals will concede him a head start in running. Gets his opportunity. ZEPHYR QUEEN should be able to roll to the top here for Dhurun. Last start did a power of work early and then looked gone turning for home before picking up again late to nail talented 3 year old Son Son on the post for third. BLOW ME OUT has shades added, drops significantly in weight and is drawn soft. SECRET STATUE was run up the track last time out in a run which was better than it reads on paper.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet – BEAT THE BRO WIN

RACE 5

DEVOTED STAR will divide opinions. Is clearly a fresh horse (all 3 wins first-up, both second placings first-up) but it is hard to ignore the way she charged to the line off the back of a moderate tempo. Ran the fastest last 800, 600, 400 & 200 of the race and reeled off a final furlong split which was similar to that of stablemates Leading Girl and Graceful Girl on the same day. Settles last but rattles late. PULI has 62kg to lump but is a previous winner with 61.5kg. Mitch Pateman should suit the type of horse he is and he is capable of absorbing pressure. ISLAND MISSILE ran home well from an impossible position last start. OHBEEH has a tricky map to contend with.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – DEVOTED STAR WIN

RACE 6

NERODIO vs PANZDOWN is a mouth-watering clash of emerging sprinters. Siding with NERODIO who likely settles in front of Panzdown in the run and back to Belmont last start showed exactly what is under the hood when recording the fastest final 200m split of the entire meeting. Stacks of speed in this with Madam Torio, We’ve Got Dreams and This’ll Testya likely to lock horns and burn along in the early and middle stages. NERODIO should be stalking that blistering speed and if lets down like he did last start he’ll take real beating. PANZDOWN is the real deal and looks a black type get back sprinter in the making. Has improved lengths at each start. HIGHLAND BEAT is drawn to get the run he needs. THIS’LL TESTYA will need a W.Pike special.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – NERODIO WIN

RACE 7

NAUGHTY BY NATURE has done nothing wrong this preparation and third-up at a mile looks to have found a suitable race. She can hold a midfield position from the draw and matched motors with promising mare Leading Girl for the majority of the home straight last time out after racing wide. Main danger Aberdeen Queen is drawn awkwardly and last time they met behind Ration Aly at Ascot Naughty By Nature got the better of her. Looks a great race for her on paper. ABERDEEN QUEEN was brilliant last start when charging to the line in a race which wasn’t run to suit. Just needs an ounce of luck to get in somewhere from a tricky draw. NOT TO BE MIST chased hard behind Billy Ain’t Silly last start and is racing well. ZARATITE returns from a long layoff. Great to see such a talented stayer back in action.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – NAUGHTY BY NATURE WIN

RACE 8

THE VELVET KING looks to have a stranglehold on the Seacorp Hyperion Stakes. Incredible training performance by Darren McAuliffe to get him back to his very best first-up in the Belmont Sprint and he only needs to reproduce second-up to be very hard to beat. Less tempo in this race but Pateman will again have him parked right over the top of them and he’ll put him into the race turning for home. KAY CEE ran well until the last furlong when rolling back to the soft inside ground. Can be forgiven. Did win a WFA 1400m second-up last campaign at Ascot after a moderate first-up effort. DIG DEEP caught the eye late in the Belmont Sprint and showed he can measure up at Group 3 level. LEADING GIRL is the worst suited horse at the weights but risking these progressive Cerise and White mares is a tough caper.

Numbers: 3 – 10 – 6 – 13

Suggested Bet – THE VELVET KING WIN

RACE 9

BLACK SHADOW is probably on his mark but in a race where they should get along at a reasonable tempo behind Uncle Lino and Brother’s Keeper he can park in behind them and enjoy the run of the race. Laqdar Ramoly’s 2kg claim helps and if he reproduces any of his recent ratings, he’ll be right in this. No reason why he can’t win at a double figure quote. BLACKWATER BAY and LADY DUCKWORTH are emerging staying talents who both possess a powerful turn of foot. They’ll both get back and both need luck from awkward alleys. BORN TO TRY looks like she’ll make it as a staying mare.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – BLACK SHADOW EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,4
1,3,9
3,6,9,10,11,13
1,2,3,4,9

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