Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1 

HYMNS OF ELADDAIR is looking to make it three wins from four starts and continue his promising early career progression. Finished second on debut to Flash Max (undefeated after three), won a maiden over 1200m and then won a C1 1400m. With the important early scratching of his main danger in Ancient Guidance he’s been given a very good sighter at a thin Saturday 3 year old event. HAPPY AS LARRY found the front last start in an all age maiden and dominated. Big query on what he beat. BONDI PLUNGE continues to race well without winning. STATE OF FURY has Pike but did finish 3.5L off Happy As Larry last start and they meet at level weights.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – HYMNS OF ELADDAIR WIN

RACE 2

COSTAZITA has only been seen once at the races for an impressive win. He was immediately tipped out and now resumes off a soft trial behind talented filly Augment. From the draw he can park midfield with cover and as a newly turned 4 year old he becomes eligible for Westspeed Platinum grade. Think he’s got a lot of upside. FAMOUS JURNEY tries hard. He’ll find the top and will kick hard into the corner. Hard to fault his recent form. FOREVER DREAMING can slide across to park in the breeze and her recent trial was every bit as good as Costazita. BREAD TO FLIRT gets the right run.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – COSTAZITA WIN

RACE 3

EMERALD TRADER is still doing everything wrong in his races yet is making his way through the grades. Hard to ignore his last start victory when he took off at the 1000 and sustained a long run around them with 60.5kg and was pulling away over the concluding stages. The obvious query here in a 2100m event is will he settle? If he does he looks hard to beat, if he doesn’t it’s going to take a special effort. GROUND BRAKER is hard to catch but racing consistently well. He could roll to the top in this and get things his own way. RECALLED is attacking the line strongly. SOWAR got the job done last start in a fast run mile and is likely to get a similar run in transit.

Numbers: 1 – 7 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – EMERALD TRADER WIN

RACE 4

CHANGING GUARD is making his way through the grades impressively. Maiden handicap, C1 and 2x C3 before now heading to his first Saturday assignment. He’s in scintillating form, he’s versatile and he’s tough. Likely lands one out and one back and from there he’s poised and ready to strike. Darren McAuliffe’s last 90 days = 55 runners for 12 winners at 22% srike rate and 69% POT #bandwagon. SISU WARRIOR is no star but he’s going to (again) get every mortal hope. This map looks fairly obvious where Success Play leads, Pompey breezes, Sisu Warrior box seats and Changing Guard lobs one out and one back. Always in the finish. SUCCESS PLAY is a model of consistency. POMPEY can roll forward and is well weighted after the claim.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – CHANGING GUARD EACHWAY

RACE 5

CURRIMUNDI and CRESCENT CITY clash again in a 72+ 1600. Last start there was 1L between them in the finish and there’s a 1.5kg weight swing in favour of Crecent City. In the end – one is a winner (7 from 17) and one finds ways to get beat (4 from 35, with 21 minors). CURRIMUNDI is drawn barrier 7 of 8 and will need to find the right back to follow into the race but he’s progressive and he’s savaging the line. CRESCENT CITY should have won more races in his career but he just seems to continually find an excuse or one better on the day. CASH AWAY is out to a mile. Big unknown but racing incredibly well. THE SPRUIKER is deep into a campaign but suited in these handicaps.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – CURRIMUNDI WIN

RACE 6

TALLANGATTA is knocking on the door and finds a suitable race on paper. Second behind Allez Allez three back, second to Sesswa two back and last start finished third in the Starry Heights super form race (Starry Heights, Villeins, Queen Of Jerusalem all winners since). Parks up over the speed and is getting very close to pinching one. ROMANING THE ROCK is not an easy horse to ride. He’s got ability but he really wants to charge. Pike on a huge plus. ARCADIA GRACE comes back in grade and should get a very soft run. Dangerous late. SOLDANELLE trialled super and hit the line full of running at her WA debut.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – TALLANGATTA EACHWAY

RACE 7

LITTLE STRAWBERRY was scratched from an extremely winnable race on Wednesday to save for this. She’s got a perfect barrier where she can hold a position early and assess the speed coming across from out wider (Playthatfunkymusic/Prince Amongst Men/Cut The Talk) and then lob into a position. With Swim Through winning a 66+ last weekend the form looks great. CUT THE TALK got into all sorts of bother first-up from barrier 1. He never got clear and was unable to work into the race while the winner and runner-up made their move down the centre of the track. He’s better than 60+ Graduation level. VALENCY is flying and with a split is dangerous late. PLAYTHATFUNKYMUSIC attacks this fresh.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – LITTLE STRAWBERRY EACHWAY

RACE 8

NERODIO gets some massive weight swings on rivals from the H.G Bolton and Belmont Newmarket at WFA. Meets Phanta 6.5kg better for a 3L margin in the H.G Bolton and 4.5kg better for a 2.5L margin in the Belmont Newmarket as well as William Pike. Should bring them very close together. PHANTA was able to absorb the pressure from Excellent Dream last start and still held them all off. Flying and bounces straight on the lead. VALOUR ROAD is the proven WFA commodity. His trials suggest he’s back to somewhere near his best. COMES A TIME was a big improver last start.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – NERODIO WIN

Same Race Multi – Phanta (Top 3) + Valour Road (Top 4) + Nerodio (Top 4)

Looks a clear cut top three in the 2023 Idyllic Prince Stakes. Phanta is looking to complete a feature winning hat-trick and should bounce on the lead without much pressure. Nerodio gets considerable weight swings on him as well as William Pike in the saddle while Valour Road resumes off the back of two impressive trials and is the class runner of the race.

RACE 9

RED FIFTY THREE was anchored from a wide gate last week and over-raced badly behind a ridiculously slow tempo (first 700m = 12L slower than average). Thought he did a monster job to get within 1.5L late and on the quick back-up he can bounce out and follow a strong tempo here. Much better race profile for him. EXCELLENT DREAM ran third behind Phanta and Comes A Time in the Belmont Newmarket and finished ahead of Nerodio. Drops back into a 72+ ratings race and is a proven weight carrier. If he can cross those drawn inside him and find the top he’ll give cheek. HINT OF MINT is racing in career best form and maps a treat. MAGNIFICENT ANDY went to a new level last preparation. Hannans type?

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – RED FIFTY THREE WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,4,5,8

1,2,3,7

1,4,7

1,2,4,5,7,8

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