Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

GINNIVAN showed dazzling speed on debut to cross down to the fence with ease. Once there Jason Brown was able to give him a mid-race breather and then he kicked hard into the corner and got away from them. He’ll find the front again and staying at the 1000 makes him very hard to run down. AUSPICIOUS has always impressed at trials. She was run down by Lord Shiva in her 930m back straight trial at Lark Hill but they did clear out 10L from the third horse. SNOW PRINCE beat her home last time they met and meets her 1.5kg better at the weights after the Brayden Gaerth claim. BOLTA next best from leader’s back.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – GINNIVAN WIN

RACE 2

MR MT WALKER is no super star but he’s an honest old campaigner who looks perfectly suited to Westspeed Platinum grade and maps a treat from barrier 3. He can track the tempo behind Castillo Del Lago and Gift Of The Heart and then present at the right time on straightening. The Starry Heights form has been excellent so far (Villeins/Queen Of Jerusalem already winners). STRIKE NOW has been hitting the line well. Had no luck first-up or second-up and then chased hard behind Success Play who has run well again since. SALACIA QUEEN got to the line well fresh. CASTILLO DEL LAGO went way too hard early last week.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – MR MT WALKER EACHWAY

RACE 3

THE DOMINICAN, LET’SDEAL, BARAMAGIC and OUR NORMAN all have intertwining form and all three of them are in great form. THE DOMINICAN is three from three on Heavy surfaces and while it’s been wet throughout the week you would imagine the track will improve well into the Soft range by Saturday. Will he be as effective on a dryer surface? More than held his on in the Ex Sport Man race on a Soft5 so we’ll say yes. LET’SDEAL has been running well all preparation and on the 7-day back-up he drops 5.5kg to finally get some well-deserved weight relief. OUR NORMAN needs the full 2200 which is what he got two starts ago when gunning down Queen Alina. BARAMAGIC was gritty when out staying and out grinding Outspoken Lad last start.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – THE DOMINICAN WIN

RACE 4

CROSS STATEMENT resumed in a 66+ and was only gunned down late in the race by sharp mare Goddess Of Giving. Back in third was the luckless Songaa and no doubt many will be following up with him later in the day. Drops back into a 60+ Graduation, gets out to 1200m where he’s arguably more effective and should be able to hold out Watto’s Fury, War Hymn and Ponyo early to lead. Looks a nice race for him. HOLA MAREA went to another level last preparation and worked his way through the grades impressively. He’s a winner. PONYO got the job done last start in a strong weight carrying victory. HAMMARMILL is flying.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – CROSS STATEMENT EACHWAY

RACE 5

STARRY HEIGHTS was the win of the meeting a fortnight ago. It was a meeting dominated by those on speed/fence and he was the outlier winning down the centre. Let rip with a big turn of acceleration on straightening and so far, we have seen 2 winners and 2 place getters from only 5 runners out of that form race. Looks very progressive. ALLEZ ALLEZ has been a model of consistency since joining Michael Lane (and throughout his career really). Can slide across to park up in the breeze outside of Dad’s Bigheaded and control. THE SPRUIKER has 60kg and a bad gate to overcome. WESTRIVER MIRACLE gets weight off and shades on.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – STARRY HEIGHTS WIN

RACE 6

SONGAA arguably should be three from three since arriving in WA. He got held up at a crucial stage last start behind Goddess Of Giving and Cross Statement and then jumped out of the ground when getting clear late in the race. Mitchell Pateman has him in career best form and with Olga Louisa/Strathmore Rose/Military Power and State Of Power likely to jostle for early positions it gives him a chance to find his feet and the right back to follow. SWIM THROUGH never really travelled last start and yet still almost won with 60kg. Since Ash Maley has committed to racing him over 1000m he has been rewarded. STATE OF POWER is always a chance at this level. MILITARY POWER faces his toughest test yet.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – SONGAA WIN

RACE 7

AZTEC RULER has put the writing on the wall at each run this campaign. Second behind Universal Flair first-up, fifth second-up (but almost fell out of the gates) and then a narrow second last start when diving at Zephyra in the shadows. Has a 5.5kg weight pull on River Rubicon and a 4kg weight pull on Multinational. They’re all drawn out together and he looks every bit as sharp as them. Great race for him to break through. RIVER RUBICON was only nabbed on the post by an in form mare last start. Just needs the right run from the back of the field. MULTINATIONAL could have gone to the Blue Spec Stakes so you have to respect the decision from Neville Parnham to accept here. ADVANCED gets a soft run.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – AZTEC RULER WIN

RACE 8

GINGER FLYER has improved at each and every run this campaign. Looks a fairly obvious map on paper and she should have no troubles in sliding across to park in the breeze and from there she can run a cheeky race. She beat home Buster Bash/Stafford’s Lad/Alaskan God/Coming Around and vane Tempest in the Jockey Celebration Day Stakes and the way she’s racing she’s seemingly looking for ground. BUSTER BASH didn’t go a yard first-up. His trials were excellent so willing to forgive and forget in a race where he can amble to the top. ALASKAN GOD has blinkers going on. It’s nearly D-Day for him. SHE’S FIT resumes first-up at 1600m. Classy mare, interesting to see how sharp she is fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – GINGER FLYER EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Alaskan God (Top 4) + She’s Fit (Top 4)

Wide open race where a fair few of the runners are a genuine query at 1600m. Going to pin point the Dan Morton pair in former WATC Derby winner Alaskan God and last season’s WA Oaks winner She’s Fit as the two who we can trust will see out the trip. Blinkers go on Alaskan God after a lacklustre performance first-up and She’s Fit just needs some room to move in the home straight to get into the race over the last 200m. Both Top 4.

RACE 9

WAR GEM was a much better run than it reads on paper last start behind Hint Of Mint and River Rubicon. He drops back in grade from a 72+ into a 66+, maps well midfield with cover from barrier 6 and with room to move he would have finished much closer to them last start. Like the way he’s going and think this is winnable at an eachway quote. ALL DAY SESSION was popular in betting last start. He pulled up with excuses. Prior run behind highly talented mare Duchess Of Gossip was enormous when three deep the trip. RED FIFTY THREE put in a blinder fresh and duly saluted second-up. Really awkward draw. ZEPHYRA beat Aztec Ruler fresh and that form could look even better after Race 7.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – WAR GEM EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,4,5,6,7

1,2,5

1,3,4,5,6,7

2,3,6,8

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