Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

CUT THE TALK has wonderful race form for a Westspeed Platinum 1000. Split My Bella Mae and Street Parade in a 3 year old Saturday before winning a 3 year old 0MWLY. Proven 1000m horse, has a barrier to work with, has the gate speed to hold a prominent position throughout and wasn’t knocked around in a 930m trial down the back straight at Lark Hill on Monday. Like this set up for him. GINGER JONES was ridden by Shaun O’Donnell two starts ago when he almost ran over the top of Puli in a re-handicapped 72+. Hasn’t won for a long while but this is his grade. INVINCIBLE RUBY and VALENCY are both capable chasers with big L600s.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – CUT THE TALK WIN

RACE 2 

SECRET IDENTITY looks to have the perfect map to make it three on the bounce. Expect he has just enough tactical speed to hold up on the back of Castillo Del Lago and when he leader goes for home at the 600 CJP can track him through and zap him late. Looks an ideal set up from leader’s back and is an in form and progressive 4 year old making his way through the grades nicely. CASTILLO DEL LAGO was able to pinch one on a heavily rain affected surface last start. When the leader is winning with a L600 of 37.93 you know they’re battling. TINSNIP didn’t handle the conditions. Prior form was okay. MISS INTENTION goes well on the back-up.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – SECRET IDENTITY WIN

RACE 3

WUBIN GOLD toyed with midweek opposition on debut off the back of a very quiet trial. She held a spot midfield and then ambled up to them on straightening. Drops 2kg in weight coming up into a Saturday race and gets out a further 200m. Looks like a filly who can put a few together early in her career. SNOW PRINCE is no slouch. He’s been tuned up with 2x 400m jump outs and did finish second in a Magic Millions behind boom filly Super Smink and a luckless third behind Ripcord in a Perth Stakes. SAPPHIRE STREET went hard and fast out in front last start. SNIPPY WHICH has drawn another lemon.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – WUBIN GOLD WIN

RACE 4

WESTRIVER MIRACLE is a really consistent campaigner. Ran second in a 78+ behind Ginger Baker five back, ran second to Position Of Power this track/distance/grade four back and since then hasn’t had much go his way with awkward draws and unsuitable race patterns. Senior rider back on, drawn to get the run of the race in an evenly run affair and appeals as a live chance at double figures. CURRIMUNDI got the job done over an in form Allez Allez last start on a Heavy9. He’s come back to racing in great order and should run well again. CRESCENT CITY is on the 7 day back-up for the second straight week. Don’t think he truly stays so back to a mile is a positive. OUTSPOKEN LAD curled up badly last Saturday after hitting the lead.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – WESTRIVER MIRACLE EACHWAY

RACE 5

TADWEER went to a new level last preparation at Ascot. He won a 60+ Graduation 1000, a 72+ 1200 and a 66+ 1200 to string together a hat-trick of wins. He trialled up well enough without his race day blinkers and in a race with speed on speed (Olga Louisa, Sockoff, Spirited Session, Vogue’s Choice) he can park in behind and present at the right time. One of many chances. CHARLETON EDDIE and CAPITAL FLIGHT ran the quinella in the Ngawyni Stakes and both have to be winning chances. VOGUE’S CHOICE is only coming out of weak Westspeed Platinum races but she’s on the minimum from barrier 1 with W.Pike. Respect.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet – TADWEER WIN

RACE 6

VILLEINS is on trial at the staying trip but the way he’s going and from the barrier he’s been drawn he gets a wonderful opportunity to test the waters. Won a C3 1200 first-up and then has caught the eye from impossible positions behind Currimundi and Starry Heights. Backing up again (like Crescent City in Race 4) and provided he handles the second quick spin around he finds a suitable assignment. William Pike loves being three back the fence in staying races and that’s where he can lob here. THE DOMINICAN got perfect track conditions to suit last start. Was backed as if unbeatable and duly saluted for his loyal following. Now we’ll see where he’s really at. LET’SDEAL covered a stack of extra ground and was brave to still finish fourth. 13 of 14 doesn’t help. STAADEN ran well fresh.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – VILLEINS EACHWAY

RACE 7

DUCHESS OF GOSSIP is a very exciting mare going through the grades. She’s beating up on moderate ratings opposition at the minute and she’s winning in complete and utter style. Won by margins at her last two without William Pike really getting busy – she’s quality. Deep into her first campaign of racing but seemingly improving her race manners at each and every start. See no reason to jump off the bandwagon. We go again. COLOSSAL loses William Pike but it’s hard to argue with his current form. Great use of the Brayden Gaerth claim. SALOON BAR was disappointing last start after a really good run fresh splitting Universal Flair and Too Dardy. MISS DRAKOVA is now starting to become frustrating.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet – DUCHESS OF GOSSIP WIN

RACE 8

PHANTA lead them a merry dance in the H.G Bolton Stakes over 1200m and won eased down by 1.5L. He should only take further improvement out of the run and looking at the speed there’s really only one other horse with any pace and that’s Excellent Dream who is drawn to his outside. Brad Parnham should find the fence first and then has the option of handing up if Excellent Dream wants to go quick. Hard to look past. NERODIO got caught in another awkward spot last start. He’s flying but with 60.5kg he just needs everything to go his way. BITOFMERIT was well supported in the same race and never really got a flow into it. Dangerous with the right run. PANZDOWN ran really well off a freshen.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet – PHANTA WIN

Same Race Multi – Phanta (Top 2) + Nerodio (Top 4)

Like this as a Same Race Multi option – Phanta was too big, too strong and too quick for them same track/distance first-up in the H.G Bolton. Rises 2kg but looks to cross comfortably and should be leading them up for a long way. Nerodio continues to attack the line with 60.5kg and is a model of consistency: top 3 track/distance 8 times from 12 attempts.

RACE 9

SISU WARRIOR maps to get every mortal chance in this. He’ll come out positive, put himself into a position and from there really has no excuse. He’s no world beater and he would prefer a bit more sting out of the ground but with speed drawn outside of him he can enjoy a run close handy with cover and that’s where he does his best work. SOLDANELLE is an intriguing runner. Winner of a 2150m maiden on the Synthetic in France who has never raced at less than 1600m, yet trialled like a sprinter. Could be a very nice find for Stefan Vahala. POMPEY gets the run he needs. YARRALEA is as honest as they come.

Numbers: 5 – 12 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – SISU WARRIOR WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,5

4,5,7

1,4,6

1,2,3,5,8,10,11,12

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