Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DAD’S BIGHEADED certainly looks the mapped horse of the race. With Castillo Del Lago likely to roll along and Surveillance looking for the position outside the leader there looks a distinct possibility that Dad’s Bigheaded lobs that lovely trailing position in the clear behind them. From there he enjoys the run of the race and while he’s not world beater he’s more than capable at Westspeed Platinum level. CASTILLO DEL LAGO always divides opinions. Think if he’s going to win one this preparation it’s rolling along at a mile and getting them all chasing. TINSNIP drops back in grade. Fresh run was good. CANNY JACK an improver.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – DAD’S BIGHEADED WIN

RACE 2 

GHOST WHO WALKS is a 1000m specialist, a Belmont Park specialist, a wet track specialist and a back-up specialist. Neville Parnham would have done a backflip (would pay good money to see this) when he saw this race on the calendar. His last two wins have been over 1000m off 7 days and one of those was on a Heavy8 and the other at Listed Level in the Beaufine. Looks to get the right run and takes beating. ITSARAYDAY is a fresh specialist (word of the day). 4 of his 6 career wins have been first-up and no doubt Simon Miller has attacked this $100,000 feature deliberately with him. Logical danger and likely favourite. EEYORE WAYZ is chasing hard. CAPITAL FLIGHT improved last start.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – GHOST WHO WALKS WIN

Same Race Multi – Ghost Who Walks (Top 2) + Itsarayday (Top 2) + Eeyore Wayz (Top 4)

The Ngawyni Stakes market is likely to be dominated by Ghost Who Walks and Itsarayday. They really do look the two horses on paper likely to fight out the finish. You could take both of them to finish Top 2 and create a fixed odds Quinella, or include Eeyore Wayz to finish Top 4 for a bit more meat on the bone.

RACE 3

SONGAA has been a revelation since arriving in WA. His first-up win was a last to first effort on a Heavy8 where he charged down the outside in blistering closing sections. At his second-up win he went up 4.5kg in weight, weaved his way through heavy traffic and was running away from them in the concluding stages. Flying and being ridden a treat by Holly Watson. GODDESS OF GIVING is clearly hard to best. She won first-up in a 3 year old Plate and likely ends up in a near identical position in running. They can match motors down the outside late. IMPRUDENT was scratched from a winnable race Wednesday to attack this with a senior. Returned in excellent order. CROSS STATEMENT is a handy sprinter resuming.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet – SONGAA WIN

RACE 4

SNIPPY WHICH only won an all-age maiden on debut and got in with 55.5kg, however, the horse that he ran down (Esprit Garcon) seems to have a lot of raw ability. Both Adam Durrant and Michael Poy spoke about him in glowing terms post-race and if he can find the right back to follow mid-race he looks capable of making the step into a 2 year old Plate with success. ANCIENT GUIDANCE was an unbelievably strong and arrogant win 7 days ago. He let rip down the centre and the race time was 4L faster than 2 year old average. Huge respect. ALMIGHTY CLASS is one of the most impressive trial wins we’ve seen in recent months. 1200m on debut not an easy task but he looks very sharp. SAPPHIRE STREET was a dominant fresh winner and gets a soft run.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – SNIPPY WHICH EACHWAY

RACE 5

DUCHESS OF GOSSIP looks on paper like she will have no option but to go back and work her way into the race. She has won her last two outings from the breeze in slowly run races without any speed or pressure. This event has Universal Flair, Dodge ‘Em, Becalotti, Imperialize and Kelvinator – 6 horses who have considerably more gate speed than her. Happy to continue to follow her until she gives us a reason to jump off, but wary that she will need to show a level of versatility here. UNIVERSAL FLAIR has been underrated all campaign and keeps producing. BECALOTTI was huge last start. Punched the breeze with weight in a race where they never came up for air. COMIC HERO has shades going on and maps well.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 7

Suggested Bet – DUCHESS OF GOSSIP WIN

RACE 6

THE DOMINICAN looks to have found the right set up here. He is a swimmer and the track should be in the Soft7/Heavy8 range given the volume of wet weather we’ve had throughout the week – perfect conditions for him. His last two efforts at a staying trip have been in 66+ grade and the most recent looks a wonderful form reference: Our Norman, Queen Alina and Outspoken Lad. Ticks plenty of boxes and goes round eachway. LET’SDEAL was a massive run last start when beaten a half head by Top Of The Pops and Vast Art. With even luck he’s a huge danger. ADVANCED is on trial at 2200m. If he stays it opens plenty of options for them. FLASH DUCATI gets a soft run.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – THE DOMINICAN EACHWAY

RACE 7

ALLEZ ALLEZ and EXCELTRAIN both look like enjoying soft runs behind a spirited tempo (Savage One, Sesswa, Boots Like Bruce) and from there they’ll hold a distinct tactical advantage over Planet Cash in the run. ALLEZ ALLEZ is a proven wet tracker, measured up in this grade previously and has put in three ripper runs for Michael Lane. Right place, right time. EXCELTRAIN continues to produce. He’s deep into the campaign but showing no signs of training off. PLANET CASH is set a task from barrier 16 of 16. He’ll need to find the right back to follow. If he does he’s every chance of notching up a hattrick. BOOTS LIKE BRUCE was enormous over a hot tempo last start.

Numbers: 9 – 13 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet – ALLEZ ALLEZ EACHWAY

RACE 8

MISS DRAKOVA gets one more chance in what has been a frustrating preparation to date. She’s finished fourth to Universal Flair, Planet Cash and Sunny Honey (five wins between them since), second to Songaa, second to Duchess Of Gossip and then never travelled last week in what turned into a leader dominated race and meeting. Backs up, drops back to 1200m and is drawn to get every chance. Now or never. RUPERT’S EMPIRE steps out to 1200 for the first time. Complete forgive run last start and should roll forward into a commanding position. FLURO NEURO is a lightly raced sprinter with ability. Still doing plenty wrong but has a sharp L600 on him. EXTRA SECRET will need a serious steer from a horror draw.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MISS DRAKOVA EACHWAY

RACE 9

VAST ART hit the front on straightening last start with 60kg over 1650m. He was nabbed in the final stride by Top Of The Pops who had a 5kg weight pull on him and the entire Belmont Park straight to run him down. Back to 1400, down 3.5kg, he can bounce back hard. He’s an exciting 3 year old going places. GINGER BAKER was really impressive late behind Vast Art 3 weeks ago. Gets 2.5kg for a 3L defeat and is drawn much better. MULTINATIONAL similarly gets 2.5kg for being beaten 2L. Brad Parnham back on and maps a treat. MOOD SWINGS is bursting to win a race. 1400m right on his limit though.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet – VAST ART WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,4,5

6,9,11,13

6,7,9

2,7,8,10,11,14

Market Market



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