Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

EXPRESS TIME steps out to 1200m which is likely to prove a hotly debated topic. Only stepped past 1000 once in her 8 start career and has always been seen as a hard going short courser but in the last few months has clearly started to turn a corner and is now settling much better. Comes from a 66+ run 5L faster than average which has already produced two subsequent winners, Ziebell & Resortman. If she’s ever going to run 1200 then it’s in this race. SEMINOLE BRAVE is lightly raced and looks a talent. Nothing wrong with the trials and his overall race form is strong. FIRESALE was one of the most impressive trials that you will see but Brett Pope is having a few viral issues at the stable and that’s enough to push caution. MORGS FREEMAN comes back in trip but is going well.

Numbers: 4 – 6 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – EXPRESS TIME WIN

RACE 2

SMASHING backs up off 7 days and drops back to 1200m. Has been tested over a mile in the WA Guineas behind Watch Me Dance, Em Tee Aye, Dom To Shoot and Western Empire when closing off powerfully into seventh from an impossible position on the corner. Last weekend found herself in front before being wrestled to leader’s back. Far from disgraced by Kissonallforcheeks, Solaia and Western Empire. That’s strong enough form to be more than competitive here. SHEZA CHALMER could be one out of the box. Her last start win against the older horses was sublime. Highly talented and very hard to beat. FIRST LAW comes back in trip which should suit. SASSY TRADER is doing a lot wrong but has undeniable ability.

Numbers: 9 – 7 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – SMASHING WIN

RACE 3

DON’T FUSS has been a model of consistency his entire career and simply thrives on high pressure racing. This will be a seriously quick 1000 with Condor Heroes and Ziebell likely to lock horns. Comes back to his preferred distance and draws a gate to chase the hot tempo. This looks an excellent race for him and the Wizard is an added bonus. ZIEBELL is really starting to come of age and is appreciating being allowed to roll (Mervyn2.0). Does everything right and can win more races. HOBOKEN will be run off his legs early but if he can stay within striking distance will power home late. CONDOR HEROES isn’t leaving cleanly and that’s costing him in the finish.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet – DON’T FUSS WIN

RACE 4

THE FUGAZI is brilliantly placed to score fourth-up after a long spell. Resumed in a 72+ when running fourth behind Luke’s Gold, Royal Command and Moschard before being thrown in the deep end into the RJ Peters when again fourth behind subsequent G1 winner Truly Great, Flow and Moschard. Last time out went close in a 72+ and now drops in grade back to a 66+. Compressed weight scale, ideal draw, out to a mile. He ticks a lot of boxes. PHONEME is in career best form and now has been the run of the race at his last three outings. Michael Lane has him flying and on the quick back-up he is the clear danger. KELLY’S CALLISTO will work across from a wide gate and is hard to run down. AT YEE EMM going super at the provincials and now looking like a genuine miler.

Numbers: 5 – 4 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – THE FUGAZI WIN

RACE 5

EM TEE AYE is on his way toward a tilt at the Perth Cup. Gets into this 72+ perfectly on the minimum after the 3kg allowance as a 3 year old taking on the older horses. Astute placement by Trevor Andrews after bypassing the temptation of last weekend’s Group 1 Kingston Town. Narrowly beaten in the WA Guineas when doing all the work and holds the scalp of Dom To Shoot earlier in the campaign. Can roll forward to sit outside Saucy Jack and takes beating. TOLLMAN is fool proof and continues to go from strength to strength. Maps well, progressing through the grades and impossible to knock from a form perspective. TRUE ATTRACTION was bitterly disappointing last start when gone a long way from home. Worth forgiving as he may simply have been looking for this trip. CAMBIST is going well but always needs luck.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – EM TEE AYE WIN

RACE 6

RESORTMAN looks far too classy for these as he continues to shoot through the grades. He looked vulnerable on paper last start from a wide draw and after 100m was exactly where many expected (3 deep in no man’s land) but after doing a power of work he got to the breeze and then as soon as he got there was putting the acid test to talented front-runner Puli. He was one of the bigger wins of the season to date and from this draw he does nowhere near as much work and should put on a clinic. PLATINUM BULLET put the writing on the wall in the same race but 1.5kg doesn’t look enough to turn the tables. COMFORT ME was a revelation when last in work and looks primed for another cracking campaign. DOWNFORCE returns a gelding and has always shown promise.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – RESORTMAN WIN

RACE 7

SUGAR CAIN is undefeated off the 7 day back-up, having won two from two on the quick spin around. Had absolutely no luck in the home straight last weekend when never seeing daylight at any stage and going to the line under a hold. Was only beaten 6.5L and could have clearly finished closer to the winner and arguably beaten home most rivals who are in this field. Pike jumps on, backs up off 7 and finds a very suitable race. COME RIGHT BACK gets 5.5kg on Sugar Cain for beating her home. Going well and likely works his way around them from a fair way out to showcase his staying ability. PAMBELLA draws to do no weight and is ready to win. All runs this preparation have been better than they read on paper. ARAGAIN gets weight relief and continues to hold form.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – SUGAR CAIN WIN

RACE 8

MIDNIGHT BLUE races 11 points outside the handicap. Normally that is a big no for me, however, historically the one type of race that you can win outside the handicap is in the staying events. He has come back bigger and better this preparation and could not have been more impressive last week when working throughout and still savaging the line. If he wins this, he’ll nearly be the new Perth Cup favourite. Highly progressive. ROYAL COMMAND has the runs on the board and relative to Midnight Blue is extremely well weighted. Given a peach by Pike last start but expect a similar peach from Parnham. Looks a stayer now and has a sharp turn of acceleration. DOUBLE DIGIT doesn’t quite have their class but he is going brilliantly. NEUFBOSC backs up off 7 days and gets out to a suitable trip.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – MIDNIGHT BLUE WIN

RACE 9

KITGUM has been a shade disappointing his last two after a barnstorming second first-up behind Comes A Time. Ran third to Home In Five and Peppijack at Ascot and then loomed the winner from the breeze before fading late at Bunbury. He did sit in the breeze that day in a race run 12L faster than average to the 800 so can be forgiven for his final 100m. Drawn to get the run of the race here and we’ll stick. TRADE TALK is well placed back into this grade. These 60+ Graduations are a similar standard to the c70+ races in Geraldton and he was winning those with 63/64kg. Most suitable race he has ever seen in the metro area. GLAMOUR PACKED was given a 12/10 by Jordy Turner in the Westspeed Final. Mare in form drawn well. MELARAB was a huge effort at his most recent.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 12

Suggested Bet – KITGUM EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2
1,2,3,4
3,9
1,2,6,7,8,12

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