Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PRECIOUS GOD won a C3 1500 at Pinjarra against the pattern three starts ago, was beaten in a head bobbing finish this track/distance/grade two starts ago and then most recently had difficulty obtaining clear galloping room at crucial stages in a 66+ behind Holler Nuff at 1800m. Drops back in grade, back in distance and gest the luxurious 2kg claim for Holly Nottle who is charging her way through her claim at the rate of knots. Small field suits and this looks a really winnable race for her. AURORA QUEEN got a confidence boosting win in a C1 1600 and then Adam Durrant picked out the perfect race for her in a lowly C2 mile at Albany to ensure she was given every chance to go back to back. He’s done it again and found an extremely thin Westspeed mile. Logical danger. I’M NIPOTE put the writing on the wall last start but will need an ounce of luck from the inside gate. ANNAS BOY might need to roll the top?

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet – PRECIOUS GOD WIN

RACE 2 

ROCK ‘N’ THE JAM is a highly progressive 4 year old destined for bigger and better things later this year. He was put into the contest at 1600m on Quokka Day and won soft, he toyed with his rivals last weekend at 1800m and now on the 7-day spin he’s heading to an extremely thin $100,000 feature. The time figures out of his win last week were remarkable (9.5L faster than average) and he showed that he’s just as good leading as he is sitting. He’s a 2027 Perth Cup horse and if that assessment is correct, he needs to be beating these. FANCY RED has enjoyed another highly competitive campaign. She doesn’t have the X-Factor of the favourite or the point to point acceleration to go with him in what is likely to be a sit and sprint. ROYAL LAW showed promise last preparation with a placing in the Kalgoorlie Cup and then put his first piece of silverware in the trophy cabinet in the Geraldton Cup last start with an emphatic win. Conceding weight to Rock N The Jam looks a difficult task but he can stay. ROCKING SOCIETY is a model of consistency.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – ROCK ‘N’ THE JAM WIN

Same Race Multi – Rock ‘N’ The Jam (Win) + Fancy Red (Top 2)

Rock ‘N’ The Jam looks like he’s going to be hammered in betting (opened $2.20) and expect he’ll jump more like $1.55/$1.60, so locking him in to win a third consecutive race before he most likely heads for a spell and is aimed up at the 2027 Perth Cup. Fancy Red finished off well at 1800m and should land first 2 – 3 in running from her draw. Fixed odds exacta.

RACE 3

DESERT WHISPER looks really well suited by the small field and the 3kg claim for Natika Riordan. Last preparation she resumed first-up, no trial in a 72+ 1000 at Ascot off 105 days, carried 57kg and won beating Hanchi and Black Ora. This time around she’s 128 days with 56kg and should have no troubles finding the fence. In front for a long way. SHMOOV MOOVA is still giving nightmares to punters. Last 7 starts: $1.90, $2.50, $2.50, $3.20, $4.80, $2.15 and $3.40 – 0/7. Led and won his trial in sizzling time and then first-up goes back…Shmoov Moova life. Down 3kg, lobs (at worst, surely) 1×1. He’ll be popular. KAY TEE WHY didn’t get much room first-up and closed the gap to under 1L late. Kept out of trouble he’ll be winding up hard late. BLACK ORA is just a little ripper. Can win again with a split on straightening.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – DESERT WHISPER WIN

RACE 4

MYSTIC SMILE trialled like a beast. Loved her trials leading into her initial preparation when she was the only other market mover behind now WA Sires Produce Stakes winner Beatty on debut and pulled up with excuses and was immediately spelled. Looks to have come back bigger and better this time around and should be afforded every chance from an inside draw. This race has plenty of depth to it but expect she’ll measure up and we’ll get eachway. ANACONDA JONES was simply too quick for rivals last start. He’ll look to burn across and use his high cruising speed to advantage. MARK THE SKY matched motors with a sharp filly on debut and kept coming under pressure. Better for the experience. HE’S A MACHINO split Beatty and Afireofgidgeecoals in the Perth Stakes at 1100m with 56.5kg. That’s the Karrakatta Plate – WA Sires Produce quinella.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – MYSTIC SMILE EACHWAY

RACE 5

WESTBOUND is a lightly raced 3 year old on the rise. He has now won three from five and his two defeats game at the hands of Hoba West (now Group 2 WFA Placed to Apulia) and Desert Waves first-up at 1400m when caught flat footed in a sit – sprint contest. Second-up he parked three deep the trip and marched over the top of them. He appreciated the blinkers, he appreciated room to move and he looks like he’ll eat up the ground. He goes from a Grad to a 66+ but this doesn’t look a deep race and expect he’ll prove too classy for his older rivals. SIMPLY THINKIN’ now stretches out even further to 1800m. Needs a soft run but should get it from the draw. ODINAKA was being tipped by plenty last start and could only manage a moderate sixth. Was a messy and ugly race so happy to give him a pass. FIFTH ESSENCE rolls to the top and controls.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – WESTBOUND WIN

RACE 6

SWINGMAN was huge in defeat last start behind Snitzalatte. Still not convinced he’s a natural 1000m horse but this looks a great opportunity for them to sit him just in behind speedy rig Kings Court and filly Solar Chant. From there he’s 1×1, right place, right time and is clearly going well enough to win. YES QUEEN was a brilliant juvenile beating Talkanco on debut and finishing second to Luana Miss and Talkanco in her second and third starts respectively at Listed and Group 3 level. Wasn’t at her best last preparation from a series of tough barriers and ugly maps and now finds a new home with Summer Dickson. With the 2kg claim for Holly Nottle just wonder whether they go back to riding her for speed? STORM AWAY goes back and attacks the line late. SOUND OF SPEED never got into the contest fresh.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet – SWINGMAN WIN

RACE 7

THE CALABRESE trialled enormous at Belmont Park and then burst clear for an emphatic fresh win in a 72+ 1200. Rises 3kg coming back in grade and will need an ounce of luck from three back the fence, but that was the win of a horse who was ready to work his way to Open Class. Think he can take it up to the filly. HOT AND HIGH is 3 from 3 undefeated as she heads towards the 3 year old Belmont Winter features like the Raconteur Stakes and Belmont Guineas. She has serious X-Factor and has trialled up well on two occasions for her return to racing. She bolted in the Lee Steere Classic at her last run before a spell and looks well placed taking on the older horses in a 66+ 1200. NICCIANA went from a maiden to a pair of 60+ Graduation wins in the same campaign and has trialled like a horse who will continue to work his way through the grades. CHARINO is capable of doing it tough in his races.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet – THE CALABRESE EACHWAY

RACE 8

MALLETIER has gone under at $2.80 and $2.40 at his last two outings but neither race has been run to suit him and in a world where The Calabrese was to run well (or topple) undefeated filly Hot and High in the previous the form will look even stronger. Interestingly he never raced past 1100m in his entire Victorian career but the way he’s going he looks like he’s screaming out for 1400m and after the Holly Nottle claim he’s only got 52kg on his back. He will be in traffic on straightening – it might not be pretty – but he’s got the firepower to win if gaps appear for him. OUR PALADIN AL has built an imposing record, having finished in the money at 9 of 10. Funnily enough the only time he missed the Top 3 was arguably his most impressive run of his career (visually). SIXINCH HEELS didn’t get the run she needed last start in a forgive. TIMELESS GEM has had an interrupted prep.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 14 – 13

Suggested Bet – MALLETIER WIN

RACE 9

SNOW GOD might have finally found a race where he can bully his way forward early? He is still quite green and seems to get lost in his races so if there is a world in which Paul Harvey gets him out cleanly and can land him up in the first four in running that might see him go to a new level. Big effort in defeat last start all things considered: wide throughout under 61.5kg beaten 1L. PRINCE OF SANTOS won two from two last preparation and then things clearly didn’t go to plan. He has now missed the last 15 months and is resuming off a 462 absence. Like the horse, like the trials, trust the yard but it’s hard to tip into horses off such a long lay off with great confidence. KARNUP QUEEN is coming out of a 56+ at Lark Hill but there’s always been a bit to like about her. QUEEN ARIA drops 5kg and Holly Nottle has a huge book.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 16 – 14

Suggested Bet – SNOW GOD WIN

Quaddie (Race 4 – 7)

1,2,3,7

3,5,6

4,7

5,6,7,8,10,11

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