Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

AURUM BELLE, AFIREOFGIDGEECOALS and SNOW MONKEY all trialled individually like 2 year olds who would be winning on debut, which outside of the 2 year old Magic Millions, makes this the best juvenile race of the season to date. Going to go with the former $750,000 yearling purchase in Aurum Belle who has looked both sharp and professional in her two trial wins and should be able to take full advantage of her barrier draw and park in the first 4. SNOW MONKEY was letting down powerfully down the outside at Belmont Park in the trial when kept very quiet by stable rider Chloe Azzopardi. Watching her body language – she knew what was under the hood. Love the way she moves. AFIREOFGIDGEECOALS couldn’t have been any better at trials but works from the draw? STERN EMPIRE did it tough fresh and was brave late.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – AURUM BELLE WIN

RACE 2

FANCY RED will no doubt be the first leg of many Pike-centric multis across the country on Saturday as the Wizard guides the last 9 (yes, nine) favourites around at Ascot. She put up a good fight last week when beaten narrowly by Asif and now on the quick spin (where she’s 2 from 2 undefeated) and with Pike returning to the saddle, she’s afforded a great opportunity to turn the tables. Versatile and tough. ASIF put the writing on the wall two back and then got the job done last week with a gear change and a different riding style (use whip sparingly). Can win again in what looks a cat and mouse tactical affair between Pike and Fiore. STYLISH LORD is a model of consistency and if nobody wants to roll to the top then Bradon Louis can do so. Looks his best chance of toppling the two fancies. ROYAL LAW did win first-up at a mile last prep for Holly Nottle but it was also a Heavy8 (and a C3).

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – FANCY RED WIN

RACE 3

SNOW GOD looks like a 66+ / 72+ horse in the making and hopefully this is his real breakout preparation. Paul Harvey guided him around in his most recent trial and he put 2L on them in the fastest 950m heat of the day and didn’t even have his race day visors on. William Pike has jumped off last start winner Excess Baggage and last start runner-up Cannykev to jump aboard and no doubt the punters will be all over him. Looks to track a strong tempo and pounce on straightening. CANNYKEV will go around a big price for a horse who got within a head of Haida Gwaii in a 72+ 1000 last start, and 95% of that price will be because Pike isn’t riding him. Ultra consistent and they’ve figured him out: he’s a short course sprinter. EXCESS BAGGAGE has a sharp L600 but she’ll concede them a big head start. EARTH GOD has returned in excellent order and should get across.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – SNOW GOD WIN

RACE 4

WONDERFULLY MADE will likely hover somewhere between $1.60 & $1.75 in betting off the back of two emphatic wins this campaign. She won a 3 year old 0MWLY first-up and then was a weighted certainty second-up in a C1 when beating up on extremely limited opposition (runner-up went to Geraldton and ran 7th in a C1, third placed horse went to an Albany 64+ and finished last). So no doubt Masmelo will stretch her, but think at 1800m she’ll have a bit too much brilliance. MASMELO looks the kind of filly who could turn the tables in the Natasha Stakes and WA Oaks (and definitely no ruling her out in the 1000 Guineas here either). She trialled up enormous and was brilliant first-up through heavy traffic. NATURES RECKONING has been up and down in distance but her last three have been outstanding. MONTE TREMEZZO will be tucked away on the fence hoping for a soft run.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – WONDERFULLY MADE WIN

Same Race Multi – Wonderfully Made (Win) + Masmelo (Top 3)

Wonderfully Made looks to win her third straight race as she continues her impressive preparation towards her ultimate goal being the WA Oaks and WATC Derby. She has the tactical versatility to lead but she’s also probably a better chaser. Masmelo may not be quite as sharp at 1800m but watch for her at the 2200 of the Natasha.

RACE 5

CLASSIC IMPACT is 1 from 28 – that’s a serious concern when viewing her as a straight out bet, however, she’s likely to hold up eachway throughout betting which gives you the insurance should she run yet another solid minor. Knocking on the door and should again roll forward and stay out of trouble. Surely she pinches one soon? SOUTHERN FIRETAIL was drawn in barrier 1 last start and that never looked suitable on paper. Some horses just need room to move and to wind-up into their races and he’s clearly one of them. If there’s a three deep line that can take him into the race then he’ll be savaging the line late. LIEN HYPHEN comes through a midweek C3 that was run 12L faster than average. That puts her in good stead to measure up. FOREVER DREAMING only needs to be forgive for one below par run.

Numbers: 8 – 12 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – CLASSIC IMPACT EACHWAY

RACE 6

AMAROO STAR is looking to win a fourth straight Ascot 1000m race as he progresses from 60+ Graduation to 66+ and now a second tilt at a 72+ win. He has been given a month between runs with a tick over barrier trial in between and the way this race shapes he’s going to get (yet again) the identical run to recent victories. Parking and riding a hot tempo and zapping them late. He has beaten Santanova, Haida Gwaii, Tycoon Harry, Sinful Living, Keep Reading and Crippalenko in this prep alone and doesn’t look like stopping. SANTANOVA had excuses the day that Amaroo Star beat her and since then she’s put together back to back dynamite sprinting efforts. She’s flying. HAIDA GWAII is speedy and tough. She can lead, she can sit, she’s a ripper race mare. CUT THE TALK is well placed but may do it tough?

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – AMAROO STAR WIN

RACE 7

MAGICAL SEQUENCE has been a great mare to follow so far this campaign. She won a C1 first-up when wide throughout, won a C3 second-up when sprinting hard off a slow tempo, was beaten with excuses third-up (behind a mare who has now won a 72+) and then bounced back to her brilliant best lasts tart with a dominant win. She’s building an imposing record and looks destined for bigger and better things than a Westspeed Platinum 58+. Always admired the patient approach Jason Miller takes with these mares stepping them through the grades and it pays dividends. BIRD’S THE WORD was three deep the trip no cover first-up when winning and is arguably better suited over 1400. If he reproduces he’ll run far better than his SP. LATER ALLIGATOR has enjoyed a really consistent prep and this is his level. ON PATROL needs everything to go his way.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet – MAGICAL SEQUENCE WIN

RACE 8

THE CRIMSON PIRATE didn’t contest the Challenge Stakes, instead he went to a C1 on the same program, carried 60kg and pulled right away from his lesser opposition for an overdue and confidence boosting win. Looks a bit like Sail Session this time last year, where he’s ready to stamp his mark on the 3 year old staying series. Think he’ll measure up. DOMINATUS was a sharp barrier trial for a 1600m type and with one more stride wins the Challenge Stakes. Lovely barrier to take a sit and stalk the speed and by this stage there’s a chance Pike has ridden up to and including 7 winners…LINCHPIN looked to peak on his run in the Challenge after trying to sustain a big run out wide from a fair way out. Should continue to improve. ABERDEEN FLYER hit a flat spot and then came again. Not suited to breezing?

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 4

Suggested Bet – THE CRIMSON PIRATE WIN

RACE 9

HUBBLE’S DRAGON has had a wonderful preparation to date and looks really well placed by the stable here. First-up he won a maiden at $1.30, second-up he did it tough three deep the trip under 59kg and still proved too classy for C1 opponents before running second to Twisted Steel in the 3 year old Magic Millions. Gets out to 1400m, draws ideally in barrier 5, has the man of the moment in the saddle and typically these 3 year olds get annihilated in betting. HEY PINO has really come of age this campaign. Luckless two back and then after being $10 into $5.50 won well on Magic Millions Day. Has to concede Hubbles Dragon a head start which hurts. MACCIATEAU loomed into the race fresh and peaked. Didn’t have a trial so should improve sharply second-up. KELVINATOR is a 1400m horse, not a 1000m horse. He can bounce back hard.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – HUBBLE’S DRAGON WIN

RACE 10

KING ADVISO was a different horse last campaign. In his initial preparation in WA he was soft (politically correct, could have been 10x harsher) but when last in work he won three and placed twice from six. The only time he missed the money was at WFA in the Golden Saddle and while he’s no doubt more effective on wet tracks, this looks a great jump and run opportunity here at an eachway quote. ROCK ‘N’ THE JAM won a 3 year old 1400 at only his second career outing and then went to a 60+ Graduation and beat the older horses at 1600m at his only his third start. He is resuming here off a 12 month spell and while 1200m is short of his best he’s very classy and his barrier trial was sharp. MALLETIER hit the line hard at his WA debut and now gets weight relief, winkers and an extra 200m. SNIPPY WHICH deserved that win last start.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet – KING ADVISO EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

3

2,3,4,5

7

3,4,5,10

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