Races

Michael Heaton’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

AIYZA appears to have found a perfect assignment. Two starts ago was probably unsuited 1200m back to 1000m but ran third to Just Go (subsequent Saturday winner) & last start was 1L second to Leniency (subsequent winner). This is easier, gets in with 56kg and can ride the speed. MENINA backs up off seven days after a solid chasing effort second-up. Trialled up well before drawing 14/14 first-up off more than two years away from the races. VITALIZE finally broke through at start number 11 last start but now has to rise 4kg, goes up in grade and probably settles last. SALLY CAN WAIT is still a maiden but next best.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – AIYZA WIN

RACE 2

KOSTA’S CROWN could be the best-placed horse in the country today. Arguably WA’s best maiden after placings in the Listed Perth Stakes and Gr3 Sires’ and a fourth in the Gr2 Karrakatta Plate. Brilliant first-up effort over an unsuitable 1000m when running the fastest last 600m and 400m sectionals of the day despite getting held up, now drops 0.5kg dropping back into a maiden for the first time in his life. RED HOT GOODS finished 2.5L off Just Go, Rupert’s Empire & Aiyza two starts ago before being beaten a nose at Kalgoorlie last time out. Can find the front here and give some cheek. OCA BAY makes his race debut after seven lifetime trials across four preparations. Long list of gear changes which suggests he has his fair share of quirks but liked the way he finished off in the recent trial. THUNDER PRO gets in with only 53.5kg against the older horses and should enjoy the run of the race.

Numbers: 7 – 8 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet – KOSTA’S CROWN WIN

RACE 3

MAGNABURMA trialled up stylishly earlier this year before running third to Penny On The Queen (Gimcrack & Karrakatta placed) on debut. Unsure what happened at his next preparation but the recent trial was solid and he looked back on track and 3YOs against the older horses is usually a recipe for success at this time of year. PSYCHIC SESSION makes his race debut off the back of two impressive trials, the first when leading throughout and the second when showing tactical versatility to take a sit and finish strongly. Appears talented but has an awkward draw to overcome. ARCADIA STAR is a very well-related debutant (full sister to Arcadia Queen) who showed improvement with the addition of blinkers in her most recent trial. Should get a soft run and gets CJP onboard but trialled like a horse who may be looking for further? MADAME PRO may have to settle a long way back but caught the eye in both recent trials.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 12 – 7

Suggested Bet – MAGNABURMA EACH-WAY

RACE 4

BIRD’S THE WORD is only coming out of a 52+ win at York but is now a three-time winner getting in with 57kg in a race where only one of the other eight runners have won a race. He’s been caught three-deep at four of his six starts this prep but showed a sharp turn of foot the only time he’s found cover and he can tuck in just behind the speed here. NUNES was beaten as an odds-on favourite last start but by a horse who has already won another race. Her form from last prep is more than good enough for this and she gets the addition of blinkers for the first time but the draw looks tricky. PEARLY NUGGETT has shown plenty of promise in all three trials across two preparations. Brad Parnham is flying at the moment and can park her right over the speed to be competitive on debut. SWIM THROUGH could fly under the radar. Unsuited back to 1000m and off the track in Saturday grade last start and two runs ago was 3L off Baby Paris, Saintorio, Azena and Universal Flair. Better placed back to midweek grade here and is drawn ideally.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – BIRD’S THE WORD EACH-WAY

RACE 5

SHE’S A SWEET DEEL has raced in higher grade at seven of her past eight starts. She has probably mixed her form in that time but gets in well with 58kg after the claim considering she’s won in higher grade and her racing pattern will appreciate the smaller field. NEVER SOBER backs up off seven days after a runner-up finish at the same track, distance and grade. Goes up 1.5kg here but the highly in-form Pontiff retains the ride and he should be able to either lead or park just behind the speed from the good draw. PEPPER ASSAULT is on trial at a mile but was solid in a very fast-run race last start, backs up off six days and gets a nice map. RARE CASE got the job done in a moderate York maiden last start and will have to elevate here.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – SHE’S A SWEET DEEL WIN

RACE 6

HERE’S DREAMING is a lightly-raced 4YO who looks progressive. Trialled up well before resuming at 1200m and chasing the speedy Protégé before dropping back to 1000m last start in a race where tempo was against her. Reeled off the fastest last 800m, 600m, 400m and 200m sectionals of the day to win impressively and there’s good speed engaged here which should suit. FIORUCCI MAMA was driven mad in a very fast race first-up but stuck on okay. Well-placed in C1 company here as a previous Saturday winner and a Listed-level runner-up to Amelia’s Jewel but probably needs to find the rail to be at her best. DOES HE KNOW defied a late betting drift to win well first-up but this is far deeper and he’s up 3kg. JUST A RUMOUR should get a gun run throughout.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – HERE’S DREAMING WIN

RACE 7

BIGDAYONIT beat four subsequent winners (Anna’s Boy, George Gently, Kia Ora Jewel & Tuscan Holiday) first-up at 1300m, wasn’t suited back to 1000m second-up then ran second to the undefeated Legacy Of Tara at 1400m last start. Stays at the same grade and distance here and can kick up from inside draw to lead for a fair way. RECALLED hit the line nicely in his recent trial and the bar plates come off. Well-placed in C1 company after finishing 1L third to Civvy Street and Probity in 3YO 0MW first-up last preparation before contesting the Listed Challenge Stakes. RISKY LYRICS looks like getting a nice run for C Parnham again and will appreciate a better tempo which he looks like getting here. TIFF’S LAD resumes first-up, no trial and may have to settle behind his main rivals but he was a first-up winner last campaign and ran some rippers after that.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet – BIGDAYONIT WIN

RACE 8

TIFFANY STREET was a beaten favourite in Saturday grade first-up over 1000m but looked as though she might be wanting 1200m? Gets that here, drops in grade & gets the luxurious benefit of 2.5kg allowance against the older horses this time of year. REBELZONE showed a lot of promise last campaign when scoring a winning hat-trick. Has a sharp turn of foot and more than capable of playing a part. MY DILEMMA resumes for a new yard without a trial and is a big watch with the Pontiff on. Has raced in higher grade at her last eight starts and is very well placed as a Saturday 62+ 1200m winner racing in a C3 1200m. MARINSKY BALLET only won a York 46+ first-up but didn’t appear to be suited by the tight circuit and has now won two out of her three career starts.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – TIFFANY STREET WIN

Same Race Multi – Tiffany Street (Top 2) + Rebelzone (Top 4)

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2

4,2,5,7,3

2,6,8,4,3

8,1,2

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