Harry Buchanan’s Birthday Cup Preview

Posted on January 11, 2024January 12, 2024 | Posted by Harry Buchanan

One the great Birthday Cups await us at Mandurah on Friday night. A race full of speedsters who light this new 400m circuit right up and this is as competitive as you will see. Let’s break down the chances and assess how each dog goes into the group 2 feature. 

No. 1 West On Boonie (Chris Halse)

Career 24 : 11-5-2

T/D 1 : 1-0-0 (22.32)

Class performer who showed dazzling acceleration off box 8 in his heat to sweep past Sand Patch and race away in 22.32. While he can lack a little off the mat, he has generational speed that builds as he gets into his work. Unbeaten off box 1 from 3 starts, it can be argued he is much better suited out wide and with the early lightning outside him, he will need a best ever step to be a threat in this years cup. Dont dismiss him entirely for exotics however he looks to be outpaced and buried back here. He will keep coming though and can pass a few of these. 

No. 2 Renegade Cochise (Cosi Dagostino)

Career 20 : 13-5-0

T/D 6 : 6-0-0 (22.11) 

Gun speed machine who has been a revelation since arriving in WA. Has absolutely owned this circuit like he built it and has one of the most dazzling turns of foot you will see. Continues to deliver the early sectionals that set him up for all the way victories and he produced his best ever step at box rise in his heat to drop a turbo 6.08 early for a 22.11 victory. Needs to lead to win and he has had enough by the time this trip is over but no denying he will make everything work triple time to cross him. Can sometimes dwell so there is a risk here with dogs who don’t let others make mistakes. Can figure but prepared to risk in this elite class. 

No. 3 All Over Kaja (Lewis Clay)

Career 33 : 15-7-4

T/D 8 : 4-2-1 (22.07)

Ultra consistent sprinter who has been levelled at the top grade a few times but only just. His early speed and sustained sectionals make him a threat in every race. This is as hard as he’s faced however and he would need a lot to go his way. Well drawn but might lack that little bit of class the others have to get the job done. Will try hard and his 22.07 heat win was enough to warrant thought here, but not enough to get him into the numbers. 

No. 4 Crumble Monelli (David Hobby)

Career 51 : 27-6-6

T/D 4 : 4-0-0 (21.90)

The Mandurah superstar and track record holder over this trip. He is the benchmark when it comes to this circuit and his avalanche of early speed continues to set up win after win. Missing the start doesn’t even stop him, but it might here. One of WAs premier performers over the past 12 months, he just finds a way to get there before the first turn. A 6.11 early split PB will be needed here as will one his best steps at box rise. There will be a line of dogs going for this arm and he will be one of them. Despite all that, he might have a job getting around the 2 or beating the 3 out early. It also depends on what his kennel mate does outside him. Hes short enough, can win and can’t be left out because class goes further than anything. 

No. 5 Cubit Monelli (David Hobby)

Career 13 : 7-1-1

T/D 4 : 3-1-0 (21.94)

Potential megastar who is simply very very fast. Has lit up both this circuit and Cannington over a few different trips and is still yet to turn 2 years old. The acid will be applied here however and he has only one option…..fire out like never before and set these alight before the first turn. Not sure his 6.30 early split will be enough to do that so missing the start and finding the fence while awaiting trouble might be his only other chance. Needs luck here off a very tough draw and while he will have admirers, too much needs to go right in a field of dogs who rarely make mistakes. If the breaks do come, his 22.00 heat win will get the job done in this final as well. Prepared to take him on off the box though. 

No. 6 Go Seek Katoni (Damien Crudeli)

Career 50 : 10-11-8

T/D 1 : 0-1-0 (22.16)

The first smokie who can stun these and stick his nose in where most won’t expect it. His draw is not that bad here and he was super in his heat tearing ground off Renegade Cochise late at his first look track and trip. Has good box manners as a rule and early speed to back it up and while he doesn’t have genuine short course early speed, he will be up there and looking to sweep into it before the first turn. From there he will keep finding that line and at the double figures, he is worth an each way play here. Don’t ignore him. He’s not out of this to at least hit the frame. 

No. 7 No Limit Needed (Christine Robartson)

Career 64 : 13-10-15

T/D 3 : 1-0-0 (22.34)

Bonnie little sprinter who is all heart and puts in every time. Came from box 2 winning her heat in 22.34 and did go 6.24 early which is good for her. She will try and muster up out wide but it’s a monstrous task that awaits her here and she will need luck to get into this. Will most likely end up on the fence at the back at some stage and the birds will have flown by then. Any trouble a bonus as that really is her only chance here as she can’t cross these. Back end exotics and looking elsewhere on all things being equal. Maybe a small spec each way for trouble but would need to be a big quote. 

No. 8 Barrio Beast (Lewis Clay)

Career 48 : 14-8-7

T/D 8 : 1-1-3 (22.17)

Grand warrior who has been humbled and crumbled here recently by the star but he knocked on his door in the heat to let him know he’s still got something to give. Perfectly drawn in this but his lack of early dash will offset the good this box could have done. In saying that, he is one of pipe smokers who will duck, dive and weave his way through runs if the trouble comes. Needs more luck than a lotto player but he won’t lay down and he will keep giving his all and should be considered for back end exotics. 

RESERVES

No. 9 Lil Bit Twisted

Needs a miracle if he gains a start and about 6 lengths improvement. 

No. 10 Danny Heffernan

Needs the same miracle as the 9 if he was to run. Just doesn’t run the time. 

Selections: 6-4-1-5

This could get really messy here. For that reason, we will play the 6 each way. He just looks to sit up out wide and could be the first to sweep into this and strong home. The 4 goes in by default because he just knows how to win. Can recover from a steady start and he’s the track record holder for a clear reason…….he’s fast, he’s good. The 1 will determine his fate early in the run to the first turn. He can handle an inside draw and if he is smart at the first turn he could land right there. Another who is strong home. The 5 has to go in because he’s just that good. He will need luck but if he gets it, not many can go with him. Incredibly fine edition of the Birthday Cup and almost all have claims. 

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