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Digby’s AFL Round 17 Preview

Posted on | Posted by TABtouch

Friday, 14 July

St Kilda v Essendon, Etihad Stadium 5.50pm

If St Kilda produce the level of football they displayed against Richmond last Saturday night, Essendon have little hope of beating them. So too would just about every other side in the competition if the truth be told. The Saints were sublime opposed to the Tigers, especially in the first half, to claim their second big scalp at Etihad Stadium this season following their Friday night win over Greater Western Sydney earlier in the year.

The challenge for Alan Richardson’s side is to back it up. And don’t think for one moment that John Worsfold and his Essendon players won’t be ready. The Bombers overcame the disappointment of back-to-back losses against Sydney and Brisbane with an authoritative performance against Collingwood. The hard running of David Zaharakis was a feature as was the offensive and defensive prowess of the Bombers’ forward line.

The Saints will be without Tim Membrey due to suspension and the hope Paddy McCartin could be a replacement were dashed on Wednesday when it was revealed he would miss further weeks because of ongoing concussion concerns. In an ideal world, St Kilda like three talls in their attack, so who structures up alongside Josh Bruce and Nick Riewoldt will be interesting. If Essendon are to make a charge at September, this is a match of importance and if they can sustain a four-quarter effort, they aren’t without hope.

VERDICT: Essendon by 4 points

Saturday, 15 July

Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG 11.45am

Making predictions regarding games in the 2017 season has been fraught with danger. But surely it’s safe to assume the Hawthorn players will be breathing fire at the start of this contest — and for the ensuing 120 minutes. If the 300th game of Luke Hodge, one of the greatest players in the storied club’s history and a guaranteed Hall of Famer in future years, isn’t an inspiration, then the Hawks have no pulse.

And on what we have seen in the past six weeks, it wouldn’t be a complete and utter shock if the Hawks were to somehow clamber into the top eight at the end of the home-and-away season. They found a way to draw against Greater Western Sydney last Saturday and would dearly love to exact some revenge on the Cats, who put them to the sword after half-time on Easter Monday this year.

For that to happen, Alastair Clarkson needs to find a way to slow down Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan. And that has proven a mighty difficult task for most sides. The Cats are powered by those three midfielders, regularly ensuring Geelong get games on their terms, which in turn translates to heavy scoring.

VERDICT: Geelong by 20 points

Port Adelaide v North Melbourne, Adelaide Oval 12.10pm

North Melbourne better hope that Todd Goldstein is not scarred after his final-minute miss from 25m against Fremantle last Sunday. If he is not at his peak, mentally and physically, then the Kangaroos defence is in for a torrid afternoon against Port Adelaide.

Paddy Ryder was magnificent in last weekend’s stirring come-from-behind win over West Coast in Perth, proving why he is deserving of selection in the All-Australian 22. If Ryder continues to show the fresh legs and soft hands to service his quality midfield, Charlie Dixon and Robbie Gray will be licking their lips in attack. Jackson Trengove was used a fortnight ago as a defensive forward on Alex Rance and it wouldn’t be a shock if Ken Hinkley adopted a similar tactic to nullify Robbie Tarrant.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 50 points

Gold Coast v Collingwood, Metricon Stadium 2.35pm

It would take a minor miracle for Nathan Buckley and Rodney Eade to keep their jobs beyond this season. In the big business of AFL, winning covers a lot of sins. Unfortunately for both Buckley and Eade, their sides have a lot of sins without a lot of wins.

The Magpies declared on Tuesday they would stand by Buckley for the rest of the season. It puts at ease the uncertainty many players felt. Whether that will help them defend at stoppages and hit targets by foot remains to be seen. As for the Suns, Eade has to implement a game plan that gives them a chance. He adopted an ultra-defensive approach after quarter-time against Sydney and paid a high price.

A week earlier, Gold Coast were at their rollicking best opposed to North Melbourne. The Suns are confident Gary Ablett will return after he missed last weekend with a hamstring strain. An available Ablett, coupled with the absence of Magpies tagger Levi Greenwood through suspension, might just give the hosts a slight edge.

VERDICT: Gold Coast by 10 points

GWS v Sydney, Spotless Stadium 5.25pm

Few could have anticipated the importance of this match after six rounds when Greater Western Sydney sat second and Sydney were languishing at the foot of the table with a mind-boggling 0-6 win-loss record. GWS remain in second spot and a popular flag tip for many, but the Swans have taken giant-like strides to climb into the top eight with eight wins from their past nine games.

They could not be in a better position to test themselves against Leon Cameron’s men, who have won the past three matches between the two teams, including last season’s historic final at ANZ Stadium. Critical in the Giants’ success against big brother has been their ability to hold their own at the stoppages and not be overawed physically. Curbing Lance Franklin from having a breakout performance or two has also helped.

But Sydney are considerably more healthy than the Giants, who are likely to welcome back Toby Greene and Steve Johnson, while finger are crossed regarding Zac Williams. The Swans are suffocating their opposition of late and getting excellent service from their lesser likes. Sydney are entitled to think they have a huge chance to keep heading north on the ladder, but there is something very admirable GWS have fought throughout 2017 in the face of a crippling injury toll.

VERDICT: GWS by 7 points

Melbourne v Adelaide, TIO Stadium, Darwin 5.40pm

Criticised for having a soft underbelly, Adelaide have stared down two solid challenges in the past fortnight against Carlton and the Western Bulldogs. Both matches were up grabs at critical junctures, but the Crows were able to put a gap between themselves and their rivals to replace Greater Western Sydney at the top of the table.

They are now presented with an opportunity to set the record straight against Melbourne, who journeyed to Adelaide Oval earlier in the season under great duress — Jesse Hogan’s testicular cancer was known by the Demons players but not to the outside world — and recorded a season-defining victory. Melbourne are familiar with the surrounds in Darwin, but key players, notably co-captains Jack Viney and Nathan Jones, will be unavailable.

Their drive will be missed by Melbourne, who found a way to scrape past the Blues last weekend. Bernie Vince seems almost certain to go to Rory Sloane, who benefited from somewhat of a free rein by the Bulldogs to recapture some of his best form. And then there is the damaging forward line Adelaide boast. The conditions are likely to be slippery, but the Crows have shown against Fremantle and the Bulldogs last week that they are very competent in the elements.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 16 points

Sunday, 16 July

Richmond v Brisbane, MCG 11.10am

Few could blame Richmond coach Damien Hardwick if he didn’t review last Saturday night’s mauling from St Kilda with a fine tooth comb. It was a blitz the likes of which we rarely see in the modern-day game. And on the body of work the Tigers have produced throughout 2017, they are unlikely to carry any baggage into this match a week later.

Brisbane themselves were on the end of a devastating second term by Geelong at home at the same time the Tigers were being opened up. The best efforts of Dayne Zorko were unable to thwart the Cats doing as they pleased. Zorko will be hoping some of his more experienced teammates step up because if they don’t, Richmond will be difficult to harness as they set their sights once more on a top-four berth.

VERDICT: Richmond by 42 points

Carlton v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium 1.20pm

Western Bulldogs young gun Marcus Bontempelli was adamant earlier in the week that the premiers’ spirit hadn’t been broken. He should know, but from the outside looking in, many would beg to differ. The inability of the Bulldogs to compete after half-time against Adelaide last Friday night was alarming to say the least.

On talent and experience, there appears a gulf between these two sides. But if we factor in the consistency of effort and willingness to hang in for the duration of a game more often than not, Carlton appear over the odds. The loss of Easton Wood through suspension is a blow, but the Blues will also be affected by the unavailability of Patrick Cripps (broken leg).

Carlton hung tough against Melbourne last weekend, having been reduced to 20 fit bodies by half-time. If Brendon Bolton can extract another solid effort from his leaders and exciting youngsters, notably Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Jack Silvagni, there is no reason why Carlton cannot prevail.

VERDICT: Carlton by 11 points

Fremantle v West Coast, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

Can Fremantle hold their ground early? Or do they wilt in the face of a fierce onslaught that looms from West Coast in the wake of last weekend’s second-half capitulation to Port Adelaide? Fremantle coach Ross Lyon will certainly be hoping they don’t succumb like they did in the initial 30 minutes in round six when the Eagles piled on 7.2 to 1.2 to effectively bed down the result.

The Dockers jumped out of the blocks last Sunday against North Melbourne, and it was no coincidence that Nat Fyfe was at his explosive best in the opening half. Fyfe might just be ready to finish the year strongly and if he can carry that form into this match, then the Dockers will feel they are a genuine chance, especially with David Mundy set to return after missing last week with illness.

The big issue for the Dockers is kicking a total that is beyond the Eagles. No Cam McCarthy (suspension) for a second week is likely to be capitalised on more than what North Melbourne were able to achieve given dual Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy is set to resume from a lengthy lay-off because of a torn calf. His return will see Jeremy McGovern move back into defence and the Eagles are a more potent outfit when he is patrolling the back line.

VERDICT: West Coast by 20 points




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